The 2023 U.S. Open tennis tournament is in full swing now, and the men’s singles quarterfinals include the world’s top two players both vying for a spot in the final four. No. 1-ranked Carlos Alcaraz made quick work of his Round of 16 match against Matteo Arnaldi and continues to play some of his best tennis at 2023 Grand Slam events. Meanwhile, No. 2 Novak Djokovic is also still very much in contention and could become Alcaraz’s last obstacle if both players reach championship match.

Alcaraz, who won this year’s Wimbledon tournament, is the defending U.S. Open champion at just 20 years old. He won his first Grand Slam event in New York exactly a year ago, beating Casper Ruud in the final. That victory gave a 19-year-old Alcaraz the world’s No. 1 ranking for the first time in his career.

The Spanish sensation will now face Germany’s Alexander Zverev in the U.S. Open quarterfinals. Zverev, the No. 12 seed, has looked good at the Open so far. He is coming off a Round of 16 win over sixth-ranked Jannik Sinner – a back-and-forth encounter that went the full five sets. 

With the quarterfinals upon us, let’s take a look at some U.S. Open best bets for the Alcaraz vs. Zverev matchup, including a couple of predictions and the U.S. Open tennis odds for both players.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Odds, Moneyline & Spread – US Open Betting Men’s Odds 9/5

Match Winner: Carlos Alcaraz -450, Alexander Zverev +325
1st Set Winner: Carlos Alcaraz -334, Alexander Zverev +220
2nd Set Winner: Carlos Alcaraz -300, Alexander Zverev +200
Total Games:
(34.5) Over -143, Under +105
(35.5) Over -125, Under -112
(36.5) Over -112, Under -125
(37.5) Over +100, Under -138
(38.5) Over +110, Under -154

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Preview

Carlos Alcaraz has been setting records for some time now. He first became the youngest man to play at the Australian Open at age 17 and then became the youngest world men’s No. 1 in history and the youngest to win the U.S. Open since Pete Sampras’ victory back in 1990.

Alcaraz, the defending U.S. Open champion, is playing superb tennis as he looks for back-to-back titles in New York. No player has won consecutive U.S. Open championships since tennis legend Roger Federer did it five times in a row between 2004 and 2008.

Alcaraz is certainly making a name for himself at age 20 as he tries to follow in Federer’s footsteps. He is riding a remarkable high right now -- having recently defeated Novak Djokovic in the 2023 Wimbledon final for his second career title at a Grand Slam event. 

While the Spaniard certainly deserves to be the heavy favorite here, he has yet to beat Alexander Zverev on a hard-court surface. The two have faced off five times so far in their careers, and their last meeting was in March at the ATP Masters in Madrid. Alcaraz won that matchup, which was played on clay.

Zverev actually has the upper hand in the head-to-head history right now, having won three of his five matches against Alcaraz. The two Alcaraz victories both came on clay, and the world’s No. 1 player is 0-2 against Zverev on hard courts. Those losses include a 2021 Erste Bank Open semifinal match in Vienna, Austria – a tournament Zverev went on to win. 

While the German has the better head-to-head record, Alcaraz has grown as a player and has certainly upped his game on hard courts. He proved that by claiming the title at last year’s U.S. Open. He will now look to even the score against a man who got the better of him on hard courts earlier in his career. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Predictions and Picks

Alexander Zverev managed to reach the quarterfinals, but his five-set Round of 16 match took twice as long as Alcaraz’s straight-sets victory. While the defending champion from Spain dispatched Matteo Arnaldi in just under two hours, Zverev had to play more than four hours of tennis to eliminate Jannik Sinner.

Fatigue could be a factor here, and Zverev certainly doesn’t need any added disadvantages when facing one of the world’s very best players.

 Alcaraz is the solid favorite, with U.S. Open tennis betting odds of -350 to win and advance to the semifinals. He might get this victory, but it’s unlikely to be anywhere near as comfortable as it was for him in the previous round.

I’ve got this one going the distance. Zverev will have confidence because he has beaten Alcaraz in the past, even if it was before the young talent really established himself. Alcaraz likely wins, but for the first of my U.S. Open best bets for this matchup, I predict he will need five sets. 

The Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-2 (+600)

Carlos Alcaraz’s U.S. Open tennis betting odds don’t exactly offer great value as a heavy favorite, so we’ll steer away from that here. If this one does turn out to be a five-set thriller, it will offer superb entertainment for tennis fans. Given the history between these two players, five sets are very possible. Zverev certainly has the potential to put up a strong fight and force a long battle.

That likely means there will be a couple of 6-4 scores and at least four total sets. As a result, the chance for this match to exceed 39 total games feels pretty good to me. The U.S. Open betting odds for the over on 39 games stand at +110, so this pick is a nice addition to a quarterfinals parlay. It could even be a straight bet with the chance to double up.

The Pick: Over 38.5 Games (+110)

Odds are subject to change*

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