This Saturday in Miami, MMA fans will be treated to a star-studded lineup, as some of the world’s very best fighters will be facing off at UFC 299. There is talent up and down the card -- much like the last UFC Miami event in April 2023.

Many observers are of course focused on the main event, which features UFC featherweight champion “Suga” Sean O’Malley defending his belt against Marlon “Chito” Vera. In this article, however, I’ll be focusing on the scheduled five-round co-main event between veteran UFC lightweight Dustin Poirier and one of the sport’s rising stars – No. 12-ranked lightweight Benoit Saint Denis.

Saint-Denis is on a five-fight winning streak, and all those victories came by finish, including his head-kick KO of Matt Frevola last November at UFC 295.

In the other corner, Poirier has enjoyed a storied 13-year, 29-fight UFC career since making his debut at UFC 131 in January 2011. “The Diamond” is a bona fide legend of the sport, but he has not fought since July of last year, when he suffered a devastating head kick from Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City.

This will be another big test for Poirier as he looks to get back in the win column. We’ll preview his chances here as we continue to look at upcoming UFC fights.

Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis Odds, Moneyline, Over/Under – UFC 299 OddsMoneyline: Dustin Poirier +175, Benoit Saint-Denis -225 

Total Rounds:
-1.5 (1.5): Over 1.5 -225, Under 1.5 +162
-2.5 (2.5): Over 2.5 #, Under 2.5 #
-3.5 (3.5): Over 3.5 #, Under 3.5 #
-4.5 (4.5): Over 4.5 #, Under 4.5 #

Method of Victory:
Dustin Poirier KO, TKO or Disqualification +275
Dustin Poirier Decision or Technical Decision +700
Dustin Poirier By Submission +800
Benoit Saint-Denis KO, TKO or Disqualification +333
Benoit Saint-Denis Decision or Technical Decision +600
Benoit Saint-Denis By Submission +162
Draw or Technical Draw +8000

Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis Prediction and Picks

The UFC card odds have Benoit Saint Denis favored to win this fight, with many oddsmakers backing the Frenchman based on his current five-fight win streak. Since losing his UFC debut by decision, the “God of War” has been on an impressive tear which has captured many observers’ attention and landed Saint Denis a fight with one of the sport’s biggest names.

During his win streak, Saint-Denis has demonstrated his ability on his feet as well as on the ground -- having dished out three knockout victories and two submissions while rising up the UFC ranks. That rise is particularly impressive when one considers that he has only been training as an MMA fighter for five years after serving in the French special forces before that.

He has made light work of his last five opponents, and his late-second-round KO of Thiago Moises in front of a boisterous home crowd last September in Paris was the longest he has been in the Octagon. Also, after his stunning KO of Matt Frevola in November, it was clear that he was ready for the next level of competition.

Whether Saint Denis is ready for a man with Poirier’s experience and skill set remains to be seen. Poirier holds one of the most impressive resumes in the sport -- with victories over Conor McGregor (twice), Max Holloway (twice), Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, and Anthony Pettis. All five of those fighters have held at least an interim belt during their time in the UFC.

Poirier, however, hasn’t fought since July of last year, when he lost the “BMF” title in his second fight with Gaethje. Understandably, he has taken seven months away from the sport to recover, which is something he also did after his UFC 269 lightweight title-fight loss to Charles Oliveira.

Much like his less-experienced opponent, Poirier can win with his KO power as well as his impressive submission game. Indeed, his last victory in the UFC came in November 2022 when he prevailed on a third-round rear naked choke against Michael Chandler.

The UFC executives went down the rankings list to find Poirier’s upcoming opponent, but this should by no means be considered a tune-up fight. In a division as stacked as the lightweight, there are no easy ranked fighters to rebound against after suffering a loss to a top fighter.

While making UFC picks is always challenging, I'm leaning toward Poirier for this one. Saint Denis could definitely be a star in the making, but at this early stage of his UFC career I find it difficult to back him here, because he has yet to face a top-level opponent.

Although many experts seem to be doing so, I’m not ready to write off Dustin Poirier just yet. His only defeats in recent years have come at the hands of Oliveira, Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov -- three of the best lightweights the UFC has seen.

Poirier still belongs in that group, in my opinion, and while I do think Saint-Denis will cause him problems early on in this one, I am backing the Louisiana native to pull off a victory and remind everyone why he’s still one of the top lightweights around.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier to win (+175)

While both men have elite offensive weapons, they are also both extremely tough to finish. Saint Denis has never been finished in his MMA career, and Poirier has only been finished in recent years by the very best in the division.

Since this fight is a five-rounder, I think there is real value to be had in wagering on it to go the distance. Saint Denis’ cardio has yet to be tested fully, and if he’s unable to put Poirier away early, it’s unclear how he will fare in a longer fight.

For the second of my two UFC Saturday night predictions, I’m going to take this one lasting the full five rounds.

The Pick: Fight to Go The Distance – Yes (+350)

Odds are subject to change*

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