On Saturday night in Las Vegas, the state of Nevada will present one of the best UFC cards in years. UFC 300 was always going to be stacked, and its card boasts a total of 12 former champions taking part in what promises to be an electrifying night in the Octagon.

The main event on this star-studded card is the UFC light heavyweight championship matchup between reigning champion Alex Pereira and former champion Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill. This promises to be a fascinating bout with Hill looking to regain a title that he never lost in the ring -- instead having vacated it due to an Achillies injury.

Pereira, on the other hand, is looking to cement an already astonishing UFC legacy, having won two weight-class championships in just seven total bouts.

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Odds, Moneyline, Over/Under – UFC 300 Odds

Moneyline: Alex Pereira -125, Jamahal Hill +100
Total Rounds: Over 1.5 (-163), Under 1.5 (+120)

Method of Victory:
Alex Pereira KO, TKO or Disqualification +120
Alex Pereira Decision or Technical Decision +600
Alex Pereira By Submission +1600
Jamahal Hill KO, TKO or Disqualification +187
Jamahal Hill Decision or Technical Decision +700
Jamahal Hill By Submission +1400
Draw or Technical Draw +8000

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction and Picks

Alex Pereira, who goes into this one as a narrow favorite, is looking to defend his UFC light heavyweight title for the first time. Pereira earned the belt with an impressive knockout of another former champion, Czech fighter Jiri Prochazka, at UFC 295 in November.

The light heavyweight division has been an erratic one since Jon Jones moved up to heavyweight, and five different men have held the light heavyweight belt since 2020. Three of the last four (Glover Texeira, Hill, and Prochazka) were unable to make a successful defense of the belt during that time. Pereira will try to break that string.

After these past few chaotic years, this fight promises to be one that clarifies the division with Hill finally returning from injury after 15 months on the sidelines. In his unanimous decision win over Teixeira at UFC 283, Hill looked every bit a champion, dominating every round, and piecing up the veteran Brazilian for a full 25 minutes.

Interestingly, Hill’s win over Teixeira was his first decision victory since his UFC debut against Darko Stosic in January 2020. All his other UFC fights have ended early, including his sole career defeat – a TKO loss to Scottish fighter Paul Craig in which Hill broke his arm and was unable to continue.

Hill undoubtedly has plenty of power, which he has shown in impressive knockout victories over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker. But there is also no doubt that his opponent on Saturday has an ability to end things just as quickly.

Alex “Poatan” Pereira has been a phenomenon in his seven fights in the promotion, having already secured middleweight and light heavyweight titles in record time.

Pereira entered UFC as a two-weight kickboxing world champion, having notably knocked out UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in Glory Kickboxing before knocking him out again in a November 2022 title fight at UFC 281.

Pereira lost a rematch with Adesanya five months later before stepping up to light heavyweight, and he looked impressive in back-to-back victories over Jan Blachowicz and Prochazka. The latter win gave him the light heavyweight title, as he joined the “double-champ club” alongside fighters such as Conor McGregor and Daniel Cormier. He needed just seven UFC fights to do it.

Much like Hill, Pereira possesses sensational power, which earned him his “Poatan” nickname (translated as “hands of stone”). This fight is the main event at UFC 300 for a reason, and it’s expected to be an exciting battle of striking prowess with neither man likely to take the fight to the ground.

Pereira and Hill are not really known for their ground games, and Hill has said outright that he “knows” all Pereira can do is strike with him. As a result, anyone making a UFC fight-night prediction for this Saturday will be steering clear of this one being finished by a submission.

Fans watching the UFC on ESPN Saturday night can expect a fast-paced clash -- one that is unlikely to go the distance. As said here earlier, both men rarely go to decisions inside the Octagon, and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday.

Don’t expect this one to go more than 10 minutes before one of these two fighters puts the other away.

The Pick: Total Rounds Under 2.5 (-163)

Looking at the UFC card odds for this one, Alex Pereira is a narrow favorite for good reason. Poatan’s leg kicks are some of the very best in the game, and considering the injury previously suffered by Hill, expect him to try and take advantage of this.

Hill is unquestionably tough, but there are still plenty of questions about his ability to deal with calf kicks and continue to put up enough offensive output of his own.

Pereira is a tremendous striker, and he has out-landed his opponent in all seven of his bouts in the UFC Octagon. Expect that to continue here, as he looks to dismantle Hill, replicating his success against previous opponents and securing yet another finish.

For the second of my UFC picks, I’m taking Poatan here. He will cement his place in the history books and establish himself as the truly undisputed best light heavyweight in the UFC.

The Pick: Alex Pereira by KO, TKO or Disqualification (+110)

Odds are subject to change*

Bet on UFC Odds at Betway

Find UFC odds throughout the season on the Betway sportsbook. You’ll find all the latest moneyline, total rounds, winning method, parlays and round betting. Missed the start? No problem, Betway also offers UFC live betting. All your UFC betting needs are covered at our online sportsbook.

Visit Betway’s UFC picks and predictions page for best bets throughout the season.