Saturday’s UFC 300 card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas promises to be one for the ages, with three title fights scheduled. The last two fights of the night will be the UFC light heavyweight title bout between Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill and the women’s strawweight title fight between Weili Zhang and Yan Xiaonan. These two matchups have been eagerly anticipated by fight fans everywhere.

However, what is arguably the “People’s Main Event” for this one is the “BMF” title fight between Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway, two of the best and most popular UFC fighters.

The significance of the “BMF” belt might be up for debate, but there were no complaints when these two were matched up against each other. This is shaping up to be an electrifying display of aggression from the get-go, featuring two fighters known for never delivering a dull moment.

Expecting fireworks from these two UFC lightweights, we will now make our best UFC picks for this fight.

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway Odds, Moneyline, Over/Under – UFC 300 Odds

Moneyline: Justin Gaethje -188, Max Holloway +150
Total Rounds: Over 3.5 (-163), Under 3.5 (+120)

Method of Victory:
Justin Gaethje KO, TKO or Disqualification +130
Justin Gaethje Decision or Technical Decision +275
Justin Gaethje By Submission +2000
Max Holloway KO, TKO or Disqualification +800
Max Holloway Decision or Technical Decision +240
Max Holloway By Submission +2500
Draw or Technical Draw +5000

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway Prediction and Picks

Justin Gaethje comes into the Saturday night UFC fight with a title to defend -- having defeated Dustin Poirier via head-kick KO for the BMF belt last year at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City. That victory was Gaethje’s second straight after he defeated up-and-comer Rafael Fiziev in London in a Fight of the Night at UFC 286.

Gaethje, known as “The Highlight,” has been one of the top fighters in the UFC lightweight division for several years, but he has yet to taste “official” UFC gold, losing in both of his title fights against Charles Oliveira and UFC legend Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Each of those fights saw Gaethje lose on the ground to some of the best submission artists in the history of the sport. In stand-up exchanges, Gaethje typically thrives, having not lost that way for six years since his initial encounter with Poirier.

Although his background is in wrestling, Gaethje rarely utilizes this expertise in his fights. He prefers to showcase his striking prowess, which has delighted fans for many years. Gaethje has picked up post-fight bonuses in 10 of his 12 UFC fights, highlighting just how often he has been involved in exhilarating stand-up contests.

Gaethje’s last victory over Poirier arguably should have set him up for another crack at the UFC lightweight title, this time against Islam Makhachev. However, the UFC matchmakers had something else in mind – a high-profile clash with another elite striker in Max Holloway.

Holloway is the UFC’s all-time leader in significant strikes landed with an astonishing 3,197 -- more than 1,000 ahead of second-place Angela Hill. Holloway’s career has been marked not only by unmatched offensive output, but also by an amazing ability to take damage and continue moving forward.

The Hawaiian has never been knocked out during his 14-year, 32-fight career, and the only time he was ever finished was a submission from Poirier all the way back in 2012.

Holloway is moving up a weight class for Saturday’s fight after having fought at featherweight for most of his long and storied career. His last foray into the lightweight division came back in April 2019, when he was again defeated by Poirier for the interim title.

That loss came when Holloway was at the peak of his powers -- having just dominated Brian Ortega over four brutal rounds -- and it showed the challenges that moving up a weight class can bring. Having said that, Holloway is one of the larger featherweights, and he shouldn’t be hugely undersized in this fight with Gaethje.

Both men are coming into Saturday night on two-fight win streaks and could well be just one victory away from a “real” title shot here. This promises to be an absolute bloodbath, and the fans watching the UFC on ESPN this Saturday can expect exactly that for as long as it lasts.

The UFC card odds make Gaethje the favorite for this one, partially because of the perceived weight advantage. He turned 35 in November, and a loss here could seriously dent any future aspirations of picking up the UFC lightweight title.

I expect “The Highlight” to get it done in this fight and retain his title in a back-and-forth war. He will then call out Makhachev for a title fight down the line.

The Pick: Justin Gaethje to win (-188)

Max Holloway is definitely one of the toughest guys in the UFC, and his legendary chin has earned him endless respect from fans and media alike during his time as a mixed martial artist.

However, Holloway has absorbed an unholy 2,086 significant strikes in his career -- more than any other fighter. His fighting style lends itself to taking damage, and as tough as he is, it’s impossible for anyone to absorb punishment like that forever.

Also, he has arguably never faced a fighter with the pure power that Justin Gaethje has. Indeed, few in the lightweight division have that kind of power, let alone the featherweights that Holloway is used to fighting.

This might sting Holloway fans everywhere, but my second UFC fight-night prediction is that he will suffer his first career KO this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena. This one could be reminiscent of Gaethje’s finish of Tony Ferguson four years ago, in which he finally put away a guy that seemed unfinishable.

I’m taking Gaethje by finish here.

The Pick: Will the Fight go the distance – No (-120)

Odds are subject to change*

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