This weekend, Sean O'Malley has an opportunity for redemption when he faces Marlon “Chito” Vera at UFC 299 in Miami. Vera is the only fighter who has ever beaten O'Malley, and UFC fans have been eagerly awaiting this rematch.

O’Malley is the current UFC bantamweight champion -- having made quick work of Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292. He now gets his first title-defense opportunity against the one man who has managed to defeat him in the past.

We are set for an overall great fight night on Saturday, and here we’ll break down this UFC 299 main event between O’Malley and Vera, offering our best UFC picks for the fight.

Sean O’Malley vs. Chito Vera Odds, Moneyline, Over/Under – UFC 299 Odds

Moneyline: Sean O’Malley -275, Chito Vera +210

Total Rounds: Over 4.5 (-120), Under 4.5 (-110)

Method of Victory:
Marlon Vera KO, TKO or Disqualification +400
Marlon Vera Decision or Technical Decision +700
Marlon Vera By Submission +1000
Sean O’Malley KO, TKO or Disqualification +225
Sean O’Malley Decision or Technical Decision +110
Sean O’Malley By Submission +2200
Draw or Technical Draw +5000

Sean O’Malley vs. Chito Vera Prediction and Picks

It feels like we’ve been waiting an eternity for this rematch, and it’s finally here. This is one of the most highly anticipated UFC fights of recent times. UFC 299 boasts an elite-level card, with Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint Denis fighting on the co-main, and Kevin Holland and Michael Page also going head-to head.

Even though he officially lost to Chito Vera at UFC 276 in July 2022, Sean O’Malley claims that he is still undefeated. That first fight did not go O’Malley’s way, because a leg kick from Vera hit a nerve that caused O’Malley’s leg to go numb.

As a result, O’Malley was unable to move effectively, and he stumbled to the ground on multiple occasions before Vera pounced. The fighter known as “Suga” couldn’t comfortably plant his injured leg, and in an attempt to put pressure on it for an overhand strike, he crumbled. This allowed Vera to seize the moment and deliver more blows on the ground.

Vera then hammered O’Malley in the face with several vicious elbows, knocking him out and claiming victory in the process.

Since that last O’Malley-Vera fight, UFC fans have argued over who really should have won. UFC 299 will finally provide that much-needed answer. Will O’Malley prove that he is in fact the better fighter and deserving champion, or will Vera be an opponent he is simply unable to overcome?

O’Malley’s run since that lone loss has been tremendous, and there’s no doubt that he’s a far better fighter than he used to be. He has won five out of his last six, with one no-contest. Those wins include a split decision against Petr Yan and, of course, his stunning knockout to claim the title belt against Aljamain Sterling.

His boxing is elite. “Suga Sean” has no wasted movement and will punish opponents with elite-level counter-striking should they make a mistake. That’s exactly how he beat Sterling – delivering one of the cleanest hammer-fist punches we have seen in recent memory at the very moment when Sterling stepped forward to try and land one on O’Malley.

Vera, meanwhile, will once again look to utilize his punishing leg kicks to reduce O’Malley’s movement, and that could be a problem for the current champion.

Clearly, Vera was able to do significant damage to O’Malley the first time, and the champion’s long frame makes his legs vulnerable. The challenger will take landing shots throughout the fight with a view to win by decision -- just as he has done in three of his last five wins (victories over Davey Grant, Rob Font and Pedro Munhoz).

Vera does have issues settling into fights, and he often takes awhile to get going. However, on the flip side, he has a very strong chin and doesn’t ever seem to take too much physical damage, which could work in his favor here against the knockout artist that is Sean O’Malley. Sustaining the blows O’Malley is able to land and forcing this fight to go the distance might be Vera’s best shot at claiming the title.

For O’Malley, avoiding lower-body damage and using his reach to his advantage will be crucial. He can keep Vera at arm’s length and do damage both with his legs and his boxing, which could wear down his opponent in the process.

There is a good chance that this fight goes the distance, because O’Malley is extremely hard to hit and Vera is extremely robust, having never been knocked out cold in the Octagon.

With that in mind, I think we will see a very smart gameplan from “Suga Sean.” He will take shots when he can and avoid any early damage. He could look to take advantage of Vera’s slow starts, but even in doing so, he’ll have a hard time knocking him out.

This should be a phenomenal fight, and I have O’Malley winning it by decision. 

The Pick: Sean O’Malley to win by decision +110

As mentioned, there is a strong chance that this fight will go the distance, something clearly reflected by the odds surrounding it. While I might lean toward a potential stoppage in my UFC 299 fight-night prediction, especially one in favor of Sean O’Malley, the return value based on the UFC card odds at +225 doesn't seem favorable. It's worth noting that Vera has eight losses on his record and that all of them have gone to a decision.

The Pick: Over 4.5 Rounds (-120)

Odds are subject to change*

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