Defending Australian Open women’s singles champion Aryna Sabalenka earned her shot at a second straight title on Thursday by beating American Coco Gauff in the semifinal round. With the championship on the line, Sabalenka will face China’s Qinwen Zheng on Saturday. Zheng, who has shot up through the ranks of women’s tennis over the past two years, will be competing in her first Grand Slam event final.

The Belarusian champion Sabalenka is a strong favorite going into this match, but she will have to get past a budding star in the 21-year-old Zheng. The two faced each other in last year’s U.S. Open quarterfinals, and Sabalenka won that match in straight sets. The rising Chinese star now gets a shot at redemption in Australia, where she has an opportunity to dethrone the defending champion in the final at Rod Laver Arena.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng Odds, Moneyline, Totals and Handicaps – Australian Open Betting Women’s Odds  1/27

Match Winner: Sabalenka -650, Zheng +425
1st Set Winner: Sabalenka -400, Zheng +250
2nd Set Winner: Sabalenka -450, Zheng +280
Total Games:
(17.5) Over (-300), Under (+200)
(18.5) Over (-182), Under (+130)
(19.5) Over (-138), Under (+100)
(20.5) Over (+100), Under (-138)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng Preview

Despite her No. 2 ranking, Aryna Sabalenka is the best player in women’s tennis right now and will be a very serious threat to current world No. 1 Iga Swiatek throughout the 2024 season.

One year ago, Australia served as a launch pad for Sabalenka when she won her first Grand Slam event title there in emphatic fashion. She would eventually claim the No. 1 ranking for the first time in September 2023, ending Swiatek’s 75-week reign at the top.

Sabalenka surrendered the No. 1 ranking back to Poland’s Swiatek just eight weeks later, but so far in 2024, she is dominating on the international stage and appears to be the superior player. Swiatek crashed out of the Australian Open in the tournament’s third round, while Sabalenka has cruised into the final without dropping a set.

Her biggest challenger was expected to be American Coco Gauff, who beat Sabalenka in last year’s U.S. Open final and was hoping to do it again in the Australian semis. Gauff, No. 4 in the world is another one of the game’s hottest talents right now, moving steadily higher in the rankings amid some of the best performances of her career to date.

If anybody appeared poised to beat Sabalenka, it was Gauff, who had managed to do it in New York just a few months earlier. This time around, however, Gauff started a little slow, and Sabalenka forced enough mistakes to take an early lead via a first-set tiebreaker.

The Belarusian then went on to win the second set 6-4 and kept her impressive Australian Open winning streak alive with straight-set victories throughout this year’s tournament. Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set since November, having honed her game to the point of looking unbreakable.

When she lost to Gauff in the U.S. Open final, Sabalenka was unable to win long rallies and buckled under pressure. This time around, she was prepared. When a rally did extend, she was still able to win that point more often than not.

Sabalenka recorded a 76 percent accuracy mark on her first serve and hit 33 winners in the victory over Gauff -- setting up a title defense in the final against China’s Qinwen Zheng. She has played fewer than a total of seven hours of tennis at the tournament so far, while Zheng has been on the court for almost twice as long in reaching the final.

Zheng should have no trouble lasting three sets against Sabalenka if she needs to, but going into a Grand Slam event’s title match against the defending champion after having clocked almost twice as much playing time is far from ideal.

The rising Chinese star has been steadily climbing the women’s singles rankings for over two years now, and her push to the Australian Open final will only improve her stock. She is going to be a top 10 player for years to come -- something she has already proven by winning two WTA Tour titles in 2023 to claim a spot among the world’s top 15 women’s players.

Zheng has a remarkable serve and has reached double-digit ace totals in three of her six matches at this year’s Australian Open. She also plays with an aggressive forehand and a lot of power – a style similar to Sabalenka’s.

One thing is for certain: These two are going to make the final a thriller from start to finish, and Zheng goes into this one with nothing to lose. She is competing for her first Grand Slam event title against the defending champion, and what a story it would be if she manages to win it.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng Prediction and Picks

Before this tournament started, I picked Aryna Sabalenka to win it all in successfully defending her 2023 Australian Open title. So far, she has outplayed even the highest expectations, and her semifinal-round performance against Coco Gauff confirmed just how well she’s playing right now.

Qinwen Zheng has also been playing some superb tennis in Melbourne, and she is thoroughly entertaining to watch. However, she has yet to run into a ranked opponent at this year’s event.

While I can’t fault Zheng for the favorable draw she has enjoyed, I have to wonder how she will perform at Rod Laver Arena when put to the test by the defending champion. The only previous Sabalenka-Zheng match, also played on a hard-court surface at the U.S. Open in New York, ended with a straight-sets victory for the Belarusian.

I have to stick with my original pick here after watching Sabalenka cruise into the Australian final needing fewer than seven total hours of playing time. Even the best opponents she faces are considered underdogs against her. Gauff was no exception, and neither is Zheng. Those two might also be among the best in the world, but I can’t see Sabalenka being denied here in the final.

The Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 (-200)

The only player to win more than five games against Aryna Sabalenka at this tournament was American Coco Gauff. In every other match, Sabalenka held opponents to a maximum of five total games, which included her 6-0, 6-0 win over Lesia Tsurenko in the third round and her 6-0, 6-1 win over Ella Seidel in the first.

Will Zheng be able to use her powerful serve to claim more than five games? Perhaps she will, but Sabalenka is adjusting well to her opponents, and if she can handle Zheng’s serve, then she should be able to win the championship in fewer than 17.5 total games.

The Pick: Under 18.5 Games (+140)

Odds are subject to change*

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