Real Madrid’s superb season in the La Liga continues Sunday with a match against a Sevilla team fighting for survival at the opposite end of the standings.

Madrid currently leads the league, six points ahead of second-place Girona. This club hasn’t lost in the Spanish league since Sept. 24, when it fell to Atletico Madrid in a city rivalry match. That remains the team’s only loss through 25 games, as Real has 19 wins and just five draws.

Sevilla, meanwhile, has won only five games all season, but it did beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 on Feb. 11 after beating Rayo Vallecano the previous week. The 15th-place club is now unbeaten in its last three matches, and things might be turning around when it matters the most.

Let’s dive into some free soccer picks for this matchup, with La Liga betting tips for both league-leader Real Madrid and its challenger, Sevilla.

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla Odds and Spread – La Liga Betting Lines 2/25

3-way handicap: Real Madrid -1 (-125) | Draw +1 (+280) | Sevilla +1 (+250)
Draw No Bet: Real Madrid -1100 | Sevilla +500
Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-200) | Under (+150)
Double Chance:  Real Madrid or Tie -1400 | Tie or Sevilla +240 | Real Madrid or Sevilla -650
Both teams to score: Yes -118, No -110
1st Goal: Real Madrid -334 | No Goal +1400 | Sevilla +275

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla Preview

Date: Sunday, Feb. 25
3 p.m. ET
TV Channel:
ESPN Deportes
Live stream:
fuboTV, ESPN+

Few teams have denied Real Madrid a victory this season, but Sevilla is one of them – having held the top La Liga team to a 1-1 draw at home on Oct. 21.

It was an intense game, and although it ended 1-1, Real Madrid arguably could have scored five or six goals. Two potential Madrid goals were overturned in that game -- the first for a questionable offside, and the second for a foul in the build-up to the goal.

The visitors then had a shot from a set piece cleared off the line by former club legend Sergio Ramos, who is now with Sevilla. In addition, Madrid winger Vini Jr. forced a brilliant save in a one-on-one situation before being denied what felt like a clear penalty just before halftime.

Madrid kept coming, but in stunning fashion, it was Sevilla that broke the scoreless deadlock more than 72 minutes into the game. Madrid found itself scrambling for a tie, and managed to get it less than five minutes later, thanks to a header by fullback Dani Carvajal. In any case, the game turned out to be a tale of missed opportunities for Madrid -- coupled with questionable officiating – and ended in a 1-1 tie.

Some people might argue that Madrid is missing an out-and-out forward, and its first game against Sevilla certainly made that case. The first-place club has elite-level wingers and playmaking midfielders, but it is often missing that Karim Benzema-type player who can put the ball in the back of the net.

Jude Bellingham has been phenomenal, with 16 goals in 21 games for Madrid, and his outstanding performances are one of the clearest reasons for the team’s continued dominance this season. Both Joselu and Rodrygo have eight goals, and Vini Jr. has scored seven, but occasionally it feels like a better striker would have this team scoring five or six a game.

It’s worth noting, of course, that Madrid’s superb season has continued despite some adversity. Benzema’s departure is certainly being felt, since he has been a world-class striker for several years. Meanwhile, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has been out since August, and manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team has been missing key defenders for most of the year, too.

Madrid has won seven of its last nine matches, but there have been two draws in the last three, and the 1-1 tie against Sevilla earlier in the season is at the top of my mind when thinking about this game.

While it might have managed to scrape out a 1-1 tie with Madrid, Sevilla’s 2023-24 season has been dismal, to say the least. The club fired manager Jose Luis Mendilibar after just eight games, and his replacement, Diego Alonso, was fired in December after failing to turn things around.

Sevilla now seems to have found a little consistency with Quique Sanchez Flores at the helm. He knows the Spanish League well and seems to have helped restore a little balance to the team. He has always favored either a 5-3-2 or a 3-5-2, with a focus on plugging gaps defensively before counter-attacking.

The result is that Sevilla has given up just one goal over its last three matches, and this team is playing a style of soccer that frustrates opponents. It managed a to grind out a 1-0 win against Atletico Madrid just two weeks ago despite only having 39 percent of the game’s possession time. Real Madrid will have to be cautious to avoid a similar fate here.

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla Lineups and Injuries

Real Madrid continues to deal with numerous health problems at the back, with long-term injuries to center-backs David Alaba and Eder Militao, as well as goaltender Thibaut Courtois.

Militao tore his ACL in the opening game of the season, and he is scheduled to return in March, but Real Madrid doesn’t expect to see either Courtois or Alaba this season. 

Madrid’s Jude Bellingham is also out with an ankle sprain suffered earlier in February. His return is currently set for early March.

Sevilla left back Marcos Acuna tweaked his hip last week, and his status is now in doubt for a team that is already missing several players.

Winger Dodi Lukebakio and midfielder Erik Lamela are both out, while defensive players Marcao and Lucien Agoume have each missed four games and have yet to return. 

Mariano, a striker, is also out with a foot injury.

Real Madrid vs. Sevilla Prediction, Picks, and Betting Tips

Total Goals

Given Sevilla’s style of play, I fully expect this to be a tight match. Real Madrid is a force this season -- there’s no denying that -- but it is only averaging 2.12 goals per game in 2023-24.

The main contributor to Madrid’s average goals-per-game total, Jude Bellingham, has been ruled out for this match. His 16 goals in 21 games are by far the team's most impressive numbers, and without him, trying to break down the wall built by Sevilla manager Quique Sanchez Flores is not going to be easy.

Real Madrid might well win this game, but if they do, I don’t expect to see any more than two goals scored in the match.

As a reminder, Sevilla has only lost once in its last three outings.

The Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+150)

Vinicius Jr. Shots on Target

Although Sevilla doesn’t allow many goals, it does allow opponents to control the possession time, which often results in a high volume of shots. Indeed, in its 1-0 loss to Sevilla on Feb. 11, Atletico Madrid managed to record 16 shots.

Sevilla’s sturdy defense will look to stand tall against the Spanish powerhouse on Sunday, so it will take Madrid’s best winger to unlock the door. Winger Vinicius Junior is averaging 2.8 shots per game in La Liga this season, and he has scored seven goals. Given a dribbling ability that enables him to  weave into space and create shooting opportunities, I would expect to see Vini Jr. take at least two shots on target in this match.

While bettors are unable to wager on shots-on-target in a same-game parlay, they can take the same thought process and apply it to an anytime-goalscorer bet, paired with under 2.5 goals for Madrid in the game.

The Pick: Vinicius Jr. Over 1.5 Shots on Target (-106)

Best Same-Game Parlay Picks Today for Real Madrid vs. Sevilla: 2-Leg SGP (+400)

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Real Madrid Under 2.5 goals (-138)

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Vinicius Jr. Anytime Goalscorer (-110)

Odds subject to change*

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