Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NHL Odds 2/15

Moneyline: Philadelphia Flyers +135, Toronto Maple Leafs -165
Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-190), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+145)
Total: Over/Under 6.5 points

Flyers vs Maple Leafs Preview

NHL Schedule Today: Flyers at Maple Leafs

2023-24 NHL Regular Season Game
Philadelphia Flyers (29-19-6, 15-7-4 Away) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (27-16-8, 13-10-2 Home)
Date: Feb. 15
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario
TV Channel: NBCSP, TSN4
Live Stream: ESPN+
Live Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic (Flyers) and TSN 1050 (Maple Leafs)

With 12 games on the NHL schedule for Thursday night, we will be treated to a lot of intriguing matchups, rematches, and divisional battles. Let’s turn our focus now to a game between two Eastern Conference teams in the thick of the playoff race – the Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs -- who will meet for the first time this season on Thursday.

The Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs will have their first meeting of the season on Thursday night when the Flyers visit Scotiabank Arena. Just over 50 games into the 2023-24 season, Toronto is about where we expected to see them in the standings – just one game out of third place in the Atlantic Division and holding the NHL Eastern Conference’s top wild-card spot. The Flyers, on the other hand, have shocked the entire hockey world. Heading into Thursday’s game, Philadelphia sits third in the competitive Metropolitan Division at 29-19-6. That’s just two fewer wins than the Flyers had in the entire 2022-23 season. Have the Flyers finally turned the corner on the past few years to the point where they can go into Toronto with complete confidence?

Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Predictions and NHL Picks

The Flyers’ success under head coach John Tortorella this season has been very impressive, and Philadelphia is doing things the right way by focusing on its defensive zone first – a true Tortorella trademark. The Flyers allow the league’s third-fewest shots on goal and 11th-fewest goals per game this season, as they have made defense the backbone of their team.

While Philly’s offense has performed at roughly the NHL average in terms of goals scored, the Flyers have been one of the league’s most aggressive teams in the offensive zone. Heading into Thursday night’s game at Toronto, Philadelphia ranks fourth in the NHL for shots on goal per game (33.4). That tendency to fire pucks could cause real problems for the Maple Leafs if Toronto’s defense can’t protect goalie Ilya Samsonov.

The Leafs’ netminder has let some games get away from him this season, particularly when opposing offenses fire a lot of shots. He enters this game with just an .880 save percentage, so the pressure will be on Toronto’s blueliners to make life easier for him. Fortunately, the Leafs are allowing the league’s 16th-fewest shots on goal (30.2 per game).

Goalie injuries have been an issue for Toronto, this season, but a healthy Samsonov should do just enough to lead his Leafs to victory on Thursday night. Toronto’s offense is legit, and it will put a lot of pressure on Flyers goaltender Samuel Ersson, who was supposed to be a backup this season but is now Philly’s No. 1 with Carter Hart away from the team. Give me Toronto to win this in regulation.

The Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Win/Draw/Win (105)

This over/under total for this game is an interesting one, because -- as I will explain -- several factors could make this total go either way. First, the Flyers and Maple Leafs are both very aggressive teams in the offensive zone, but only Toronto consistently converts that style of play into goals. Second, both teams are stout defensively, but there is concern +about the prospect of Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov facing a high number of shots. The more pucks Samsonov sees, the more he tends to wobble. I trust the defensemen in this matchup, however, because both the Flyers and Maple Leafs do a great job pressuring opposing skaters. As a result, I lean toward the under here.

The Pick: Under 6.5 (-125)

Best NHL Player-Prop Bets for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Tonight

Auston Matthews

Toronto center Auston Matthews is among the best players in the NHL once again this season. He will face a tough test on Thursday night against a group of John Tortorella-coached Flyers defensemen hungry to shut him down. I’ll be targeting Matthews’ shots on goal tonight, because this line is an interesting number that just screams value given how well Philadelphia plays in its own zone. In his last five games Matthews has exceeded his current prop total just twice. I expect him to go under 4.5 shots on goal Thursday night, because shots will come at a premium for everyone involved in this game.

The Pick: Auston Matthews under 4.5 shots on goal (-105)

Best Same-Game Parlay NHL bets today for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+850)

Money Line I’m going back to the well and starting this same-game parlay off with a pick on the money line. As mentioned above, I like the Toronto Maple Leafs to win this game in regulation without any trouble. However, I’ll play it safer here as I double down on Toronto by taking  them to win outright, just in case this game goes to overtime.

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs (-150)

First Period This is a roll-of-the-dice situation, but I really think both Toronto and Philadelphia plan to feel each other out defensively at the start of this game, which means no goals will be scored by either team in the first period. The Flyers have scored first-period goals in three of their last five games, and the Maple Leafs have done it in four of their last five. However, since this is the first time these teams will meet this season, I expect them to both be very cautious in the first period, when their emphasis will be on defense.

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Under 0.5 goals 1st period (+390)

Maple Leafs Goals Although I expect a quiet first period on Thursday, I also predict the Toronto Maple Leafs will eventually break through and find their stride. Toronto has scored at least three goals in four out of its last five games. While the Flyers will pose the Leafs’ biggest defensive test in their current five-game stretch, Toronto will get its offense rolling and likely pick up an empty-net goal by the end of the game. 

Leg-3 SGP Pick: Maple Leafs goals over 2.5 (-225)

Odds are subject to change* 

NHL SGP @(+850): Bet $100 to Win $950

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