NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets: Stroud a dependable target for Wilson
Alex Buck makes his player prop picks and predictions for Week 4 of the NFL 2023 season, with four best bets.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4 - SNF
Best Broncos vs Bears Player Prop Bets Today
Since quarterback Russell Wilson arrived in Denver, all eyes have been on wide receiver Courtland Sutton. In the early stages of their QB-WR relationship, Sutton was establishing a strong connection with Wilson. Unfortunately, former Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett ruined their chances of success last year because the Broncos offense stagnated. However, despite Denver’s current 0-3 start, there's a sense that this season could bring better results through the air.
Sutton has already equaled his touchdown count from last season with two TD receptions in the first three weeks. On average, he hauls in just over five receptions for about 60 yards per game. Some might argue that Jerry Jeudy's injuries have played a role in Sutton’s upswing, and that is true to some extent, but in the Broncos’ most recent game -- when Jeudy was healthy -- Sutton still managed to command 11 targets, resulting in eight receptions for 91 yards.
While many expected Jeudy to be the No. 1 receiver for the Broncos this season, Sutton is steadily establishing himself as a dependable target for Wilson. His towering 6-foot-4 frame enables him to contend with any defender due to his height advantage.
This is a favorable matchup for the Broncos, because they are facing the Chicago Bears, who have one of the worst defenses in the league.
Best Vikings vs Panthers Player Prop Bets Today
Old Man Thielen is still knocking about and getting it done. His career was expected to drop off after his move from Minnesota to Carolina this past offseason, but Adam Thielen is showing the haters that he still has what it takes to be a top receiver in the NFL. Thielen is 33 years old, so it’s understandable that people were starting to write him off, because it’s rare for a receiver to be as productive as he has been at this age.
In Week 1, Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young’s NFL debut, Thielen struggled, which was to be expected. He managed only two targets, both of which he caught for a total of 12 yards. However, in Weeks 2 and 3 there was a significant increase in volume, with Thielen getting nine and 14 targets, respectively. In Carolina’s last game – a 37-27 loss at Seattle -- Thielen posted an impressive stat line of 11 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown. That’s a level of production one would typically associate with younger talents such as Justin Jefferson or Stefon Diggs rather than a seasoned 33-year-old like Thielen.
The only caveat here is that the Panthers started Andy Dalton at quarterback in Thielen’s big Week 3 game. Dalton looked better than Bryce Young, who is currently dealing with an ankle sprain. He utilized Thielen’s elite route-running and kept throwing him the football.
It’s hard to imagine that Thielen can keep this up when Young returns, but the upside is that this was the second week where the Panthers tried to get Thielen more involved. In addition, rookie Jonathon Mingo is going through the concussion protocol and is doubtful for Carolina’s Week 4 home game against the Vikings.
Facing his old team Sunday, Thielen will want to put on a show. Regardless of whether Young or Dalton lines up at quarterback, the Panthers should be able to put up points against this vulnerable Minnesota defense. I am therefore backing Thielen’s over line.
Best Steelers vs Texans Player Prop Bets Today
With all the preseason hype surrounding Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud was flying a bit under the radar. However, the 2023 draft’s No. 2 overall pick has adapted to the NFL just as quickly as Richardson. It’s still early, of course, but Stroud looks like he’s the real deal.
Stroud is showing his elite potential as an NFL quarterback in the way he anticipates his receivers. As expected, he struggled in his first NFL game with a QB rating of 25, but he still threw for 242 yards. He has thrown for 906 yards on the season so far and racked up four touchdowns over his last two games. He has yet to throw an interception and is looking better and better with every snap of the ball.
This will be Stroud’s hardest test yet in taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers and their pass rush, but I have confidence in this rookie. He has already shown that he could be effective against the Baltimore defense, and that’s a tough team against which to pass.
Stroud has cleared his passing line in every game so far. With Tank Dell emerging as the No.1 option on the Texans, Houston has a deep-ball threat who can enable Stroud to quickly throw for large chunks of yardage. He should cruise past his pass line.
Best Dolphins vs Bills Player Prop Bets Today
There was a lot of speculation about whether or not Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs would be playing for the Bills this season after reports out of training camp claimed that he was unhappy. All of that seems to have blown over, and Diggs looks as hungry as ever for a Super Bowl appearance.
The Dolphins-Bills matchup is one of the most anticipated games on the NFL’s Week 4 slate. It could swing either way, since the Dolphins have looked almost unstoppable on offense and the Bills have been their usual dominant selves.
If we have learned anything over the years, it’s that when games are close, Bills QB Josh Allen relies heavily on Diggs. Take a look at the Jets game in Week 1. Diggs had 10 receptions on 13 targets. The majority of those targets came late in the game when Buffalo was chasing the Jets and had to get the ball downfield quickly. This game should have plenty of moments like that, which means Allen will have to feed the ball to Diggs.
The Dolphins could put up big numbers against the Bills, landing Buffalo in a negative game script that would force Allen to throw the ball more. The Miami defense isn’t anything special, and truly great wide receivers are able to perform against any opposition. Stefon Diggs is “that guy,” and he will rise to the occasion on Sunday.
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