NFL Parlay Picks today for Week 4 (+831)

27 Sept

Alex Buck

Alex Buck makes his NFL picks and predictions for Week 4, with three best bets. Plus, parlay tips for SNF football.

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Best NFL Bets Week 4: Picks, Predictions & Schedules

NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Miami Dolphins (3-0) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: fuboTV/NFL+

The Dolphins travel to Buffalo for this early-season AFC East showdown. It’s also a duel between potential NFL MVPs as Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and the Bills’ Josh Allen try to lead their teams to victory. The Dolphins are sitting atop the AFC East with a perfect 3-0 record, and their spirits are high after blowing out the Denver Broncos 70-20 last week. The Bills are also feeling confident after effectively shutting out the Washington Commanders in cruising to an easy 37-3 victory last Sunday.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 4

Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (+125), Buffalo Bills (-150)
Spread: Dolphins +2 .5 (-115), Bills -2.5 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 54.5 points

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Preview

The Dolphins are currently the best team in the AFC, but this game at Buffalo will be their first real challenge. The Dolphins and Bills have played each other a total of 119 times, and Miami leads the series 62-56-1. However, in recent years the Bills have dominated this matchup, winning nine out of the last 10 meetings.

We have been treated to some high-scoring games recently, and the current over/under line for this one is set to 54.5. This line has been cleared in seven out of the last 10 Miami-Buffalo games.

Both the Dolphins and the Bills can claim to have the best offense in the AFC East, however, the Dolphins hold a slight edge with a roster that includes wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, plus running backs Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane. Nevertheless, when discussing the best receivers who will play in this game, it's impossible to overlook Stefon Diggs. Just when you think he's out of the conversation, Diggs has a knack for reminding everyone why he should never be underestimated.

This game has all the ingredients for a classic shootout. The Bills aim to halt the Dolphins’ current Super Bowl hype train, even though Miami is the oddsmakers’ No. 4 favorite to win it all this year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are determined to demonstrate their seriousness by defeating the Bills and making another big statement to the league.

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions and NFL Picks Week 4

I would love the Dolphins fairy-tale season to continue and see them to improve to 4-0, but this game is a tough one to call. Yes, the Dolphins just put up 70 points against the Broncos, but this Bills defense is a completely different animal. Last Sunday, Buffalo allowed 230 combined rushing and passing yards and intercepted passes from Washington QB Sam Howell not once, not twice, but four times. In their previous game, the Bills also held the Las Vegas Raiders to 230 total yards, and last season’s rushing leader, Josh Jacobs, ran for negative yards against them.

Both the Dolphins and the Bills have high-powered offenses capable of blowing away their opponents, but this Bills defense is extremely strong and potentially the best in the league. With that in mind, I’m picking the Buffalo Bills to take down the high-flying Fins.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-150)
NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) vs. Houston Texans (1-2)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: NFL+ / Fubo

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Houston on Sunday to take on a Texans team that surprised everyone last week by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17. Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is making the jump from college football to the NFL look easy, and Houston’s defense should not be ignored. The Steelers, meanwhile, come into this game on the heels of back-to-back wins over the Browns and Raiders. Both teams have some real momentum, and this game could swing either way.

Steelers vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 4

Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers (-150), Houston Texans (+125)
Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-130), Texans +2.5 (+100)
Total: Over/Under 42.5 points

Steelers at Texans Preview

C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and the rest of the Texans are taking the NFL by storm. Despite his size, Dell looks like an elite talent at the wide receiver position. If he and Stroud can keep linking up for over 100 yards per game, then the Texans are going to start racking up wins.

Houston is gearing up for its hardest test of the young season as it prepares to take on the Steelers and their incredibly talented pass-rush scheme -- one that’s capable of making even the most experienced quarterbacks feel uneasy. Last weekend, the Steelers sacked Las Vegas QB Jimmy Garoppolo four times. Considering the state of Houston’s offensive line, it's clear that the Steelers will be relentless in pursuing Stroud throughout this game.

The Steelers’ defense has been the star of the Pittsburgh show recently, but their offense has quietly been good, too. Since the team lost Diontae Johnson to a hamstring injury, George Pickens has stepped up to become the No.1 receiver. Over the past two games, Pickens has caught passes for 202 yards and scored a touchdown. This upcoming matchup against the injury-riddled Texans secondary should be a highly favorable one for him.

Steelers vs. Texans Predictions and NFL Picks Week 4

When you combine a rookie QB with a team that has been in “rebuild” mode ever since Deshaun Watson left, it’s no surprise that the Texans are the underdogs here. However, they have an opportunity to get a win against an imperfect Steelers team.

This season, the Steelers have demonstrated some difficulty putting points on the board. This won’t be helped by a Texans defense that has proven capable of limiting quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence. Since the Steelers have also relied heavily on their defense in recent weeks, this game has the potential to become a low-scoring affair. That points me toward backing the under.

The Pick: Total Points - Under 42.5 points (-110)
NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Minnesota Vikings (0-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-3)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: NFL+ / Fubo

The Vikings head south to North Carolina to take on the Panthers on Sunday in a battle of 0-3 teams. Who would have thought Minnesota would be in this position after the season’s first three weeks? A loss to the Eagles was expected, but given their offensive talent, they should arguably have been able to beat the Bucs and Chargers.

The Panthers could be without rookie quarterback Bryce Young for a second week, and that might not be a bad thing. There is no doubt Young has a lot of potential, but one can’t deny that the Panthers offense looked considerably better with veteran Andy Dalton under center last week at Seattle. They pushed the Seahawks all the way before losing 32-27. Scoring 27 points was impressive, particularly since Carolina had only managed to score a total of 27 through its first two games.

Vikings vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 4

Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings (-200), Carolina Panthers (+165)
Spread: Vikings -3.5 (-120), Panthers +3.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 45.5 points

Vikings at Panthers Preview

As good as the Vikings are offensively, their defense has been in a shambles -- allowing a whopping 1,173 total yards in just three weeks. Their issues also extend to the offensive side of the ball, as Minnesota has had more fumbles and turnovers than their coaches would like. The Vikings probably view this upcoming game against the Panthers as an ideal opportunity to turn their season around. Since the Packers and Lions have both started strong, Vikings players know that coming out of Carolina with a win is crucial for their playoff hopes.

The Panthers, on the other hand, did not have such high expectations for this season. They are in a transitional phase with talented rookie quarterback Bryce Young adapting to the league. Carolina is also integrating new pieces on both offense and defense after a significant overhaul last year. This season was always going to be a learning curve for them, but they haven't performed poorly, and Young has already displayed flashes of his potential. This matchup presents an enticing opportunity for both teams, since neither one wants to be 0-4 after it ends.

Vikings vs. Panthers Predictions and NFL Picks Week 4

As impressive as the Panthers looked with Andy Dalton at quarterback, the Vikings should have enough grit to win this game. They can’t be happy with this start to their season, especially since their last game ended with the Los Angeles Chargers intercepting Kirk Cousins in the end zone. The Vikings are better than this, and they know it.

Carolina head coach Frank Reich has said that Bryce Young will be the starter no matter how well Dalton plays. If Young is healthy -- and he’s trending in that direction -- I’m more confident making this pick. No matter how this game turns out, the Vikings defense offers Young an opportunity to sling the ball around at home.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings Moneyline (-200)

NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Broncos (0-3) vs. Bears (0-3)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: NFL+ / Fubo

This weekend’s matchup between the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears pits the bottom of the NFC against the bottom of the AFC, because both these teams are sitting on winless records through the season’s first three weeks.

The Broncos were embarrassed by the Dolphins in their most recent game -- losing 70-20. They are lucky Miami head coach Mike McDaniel stopped short of breaking the NFL record for points scored in one game (72 by Washington vs. the Giants in 1966). We also saw the Chicago Bears get blown out last week when they fell to the Kansas City Chiefs 41-10.

Broncos vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 4

Moneyline: Denver Broncos (-170), Chicago Bears (+150)
Spread: Broncos -3.5 (+105), Bears +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 45.5 points

Broncos at Bears Preview

It is hard to pinpoint what’s going wrong for the Bears. It could be a coaching issue. It could be quarterback Justin Fields not yet making the expected leap in his third season. It could also just be that the whole team is falling short of expectations. Regardless, Chicago needs to figure this out and find a solution quickly. One valuable lesson the Bears can take from last week’s Broncos-Dolphins game is that it is very easy to run the ball against Denver, which allowed Miami a total of 350 rushing yards. In Fields and running backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, Chicago has some great runners who are capable of causing Denver all sorts of trouble.

That brutal loss to Miami was truly an isolated incident for Denver. The Dolphins were just exceptional on the day, and their offense is scary good. The Broncos should be more concerned about their own level of competitiveness and the fact that many of their players seemed to give up once the game got tough. Denver head coach Sean Payton should be able to pick his players up, dust them down, and get them ready for this weekend’s matchup, and he needs to see a total team effort in this game at Chicago. On paper, at least, the Broncos are a better team than the Bears. They should like their chances of winning this one.

Broncos vs. Bears Predictions and NFL Picks Week 4

The Broncos hold the edge here. Before they were blown out by Miami, they narrowly lost to both the Raiders and Commanders by a total of three points. The Bears, meanwhile, seem confused about their game plan, much like they were at the start of last year. There is an expectation that Chicago will work its problems out once the Bears take advantage of Fields’ running ability, and this matchup certainly gives them an ideal opportunity to do that.

However, if the Bears continue to play the way they have been playing this season, the Broncos should win and cover the spread in the process.

The Pick: Broncos -3.5 (-105)