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NFL Player-Prop Bets for Week 18

Best Cowboys vs Commanders Player Prop Bets

Dak Prescott

Even though he has essentially dropped out of the race for the NFL’s MVP award, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been playing at an MVP level for most of the 2023 season. He has passed for at least 300 yards in five games this year, and with one game left in his season, he has already thrown for 4,237 yards and 32 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. One of his 300-yard games came earlier this season against the Washington Commanders team he will face again on Sunday.

The turning point in Prescott’s season came around the Cowboys’ bye week just under two months into the season. Prior to that Week 7 bye, Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was averaging around eight targets per game. That number jumped up dramatically to over 12 targets per game in the six games that followed the bye.

Lamb has become a true alpha receiver, with the Cowboys lining him up inside and out. His emergence in the offense has unlocked the new-look, lethal Dallas passing attack that helped Prescott become an MVP candidate in the first place. The Cowboys have swept past most of their opponents this season, and it doesn't get much easier than a Week 18 clash with the Washington Commanders.

Only one team (Tampa Bay) gives up more passing yardage than the Commanders, who allow an average of 259 yards per game. Their defense is inexperienced and lacks talent. Prescott had 331 yards against Washington the last time these two teams met at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving, and I expect him to repeat that performance here on the road.

Dallas still needs a win to secure the No. 2 seed for the NFC playoffs, so we will definitely see Prescott and the Cowboys starters on the field this weekend.

The Pick: Dak Prescott Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Best Buccaneers vs Panthers Player Prop Bets

Rachaad White

The 2023 season has been a breakout year for Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White. After battling through some difficulties at the beginning of the season (which were mostly caused by a dismal offensive line), White has managed produce a fantastic 2023 stat line that features 915 rushing yards and 531 receiving yards. He has been a crucial part of the Buccaneers’ offense and will be treated to a dream matchup in Week 18.

The Bucs’ opponent on Sunday will be the Carolina Panthers, who are the worst team in the NFL. Carolina is best attacked on the ground because – and this might come as a surprise -- the Panthers give up the NFL’s third-fewest passing yards per game. One reason the team gives up so few yards through the air is because opposing teams don’t need to pass against the Panthers all that much. However, Carolina cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson certainly play their part when it comes to frustrating QBs.

The Buccaneers can expect things to go their way in this game, and a heavy dose of White would be a good route to success. The NFC South division title is on the line, and Tampa Bay won’t want to give Carolina any chance at an upset. Getting out to a lead and then exploiting the Panthers’ run defense with White is the right blueprint, and I expect Tampa Bay to have success with it.

The Pick: Rachaad White Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Best Vikings vs Lions Player Prop Bets

Justin Jefferson

The Minnesota Vikings visit the Detroit Lions this weekend for a game in which very little will be on the line. The Lions are already locked into their playoff spot, so we might see some Detroit starters relegated to the bench. That would be music to the ears of the Vikings’ pass attack, which has to like its chances of success regardless of who lines up for the Lions.

Detroit is allowing 240 passing yards per game this season, which puts them in a tie for 25th in the NFL. The Lions’ stout run defense makes their secondary look like an even more inviting target, so I expect we will see a lot of Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson in Week 18.

This has been a frustrating season for Jefferson, who missed a couple of months with an injury and is now catching passes from backup quarterbacks. Nevertheless, he has been targeted 10 times in each of his last three games and is averaging 94 yards during that stretch. That yardage number would be higher if Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell hadn’t decided to start Jaren Hall at quarterback for the first half of the Vikings’ most recent game against the Packers. Nick Mullens isn’t exactly a QB to get excited about, but he does at least service Jefferson with higher-value targets.

Mullens started against Detroit just two weeks ago at home on a day when Jefferson racked up 141 receiving yards. In last week’s second half, when he came on in relief of Hall, Mullens went straight back to his No. 1 target. It is very hard to imagine that O’Connell would start Hall over Mullens again at Detroit, so I am confident that Jefferson will hit his line this week.

A matchup against the Lions' poor secondary, which might end up resting some players, combined with Mullens’ desire to target Jefferson makes this line look like a great bet, particularly since Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson and wide receiver Jordan Addison are both out with injuries.

The Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 87.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Best Eagles vs Giants Player Prop Bets 

Dallas Goedert

Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert stands out as a great bet this weekend. The Eagles are in a messy decline, suddenly needing a road win over the New York Giants on Sunday just to give themselves a slim chance at the NFC East division title.

It has been a disjointed few weeks for Philadelphia on offense, and an injury to wide receiver DeVonta Smith is not going to make life any easier for the Eagles. It will, however, free up more targets for Goedert. The talented tight end will be the second option behind A.J. Brown when it comes to Philly’s pass-catchers, and that suggests some good volume could be coming his way.

Goedert has been targeted 24 times over his last three games, and he should see a lot more action with Smith out. He had 71 receiving yards against the Giants just two weeks ago and then caught five passes for 47 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals last week. Those 71 yards against this week’s opponent, the Giants, came with a healthy Smith on the field, so there is no reason to think Goedert won’t put up a bigger yardage number this week.

Despite a miserable few weeks of late, the Eagles are still primed for a playoff run and still have a shot at winning the division. They have questions to answer, though, so I can’t see them taking it easy this week. Philadelphia should be viewing this as an opportunity to regain its groove against a struggling defense, and Goedert should be a key part of that effort.

The Pick: Dallas Goedert Over XX Receiving Yards (-XX)

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