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NFL Player-Prop Bets for Week 17

Best Lions vs Cowboys Player Prop Bets

Jahmyr Gibbs

It appears that Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been growing stronger throughout his NFL rookie season and is now one of the Lions’ key playmakers down the stretch.

Over his past four starts Gibbs has averaged 6.9 yards per carry with a minimum of 60 rushing yards in all four games. The 6.9 average is an improvement on his overall season average of 5.7, and his development has been visible for all to see over the course of the season.

Gibbs is still splitting carries with fellow running back David Montgomery, but he’s undoubtedly the more explosive of the two rushers. Highlights of Gibbs cutting through open lanes and hitting the open field are becoming more common.

In just the last two weeks, Gibbs had 11 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos, followed by 15 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings.

Although they have a talented pass rush, the Dallas Cowboys, who host the Lions on Saturday, have one of the NFL’s weaker defenses when it comes to defending against the run. In fact, over the last three weeks, Dallas has allowed an average of more than 150 rushing yards per game, which makes the Cowboys the NFL’s fourth-worst team in that category during the span.

I expect Gibbs to get plenty of touches on the road and smash through his 53.5-yard rushing line.

The Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Best Patriots vs Bills Player Prop Bets

James Cook

Running back James Cook had a monumental performance in Week 15 when the Buffalo Bills decided to lean on their ground attack more than they had done in any game over the past few seasons.

The Bills’ new interim offensive coordinator and play-caller, Joe Brady, saw how the run was working during a game against the Dallas Cowboys and chose to lean into it aggressively. The result was Cook rushing for 179 yards and a touchdown in what felt like an effortless 31-10 win for Buffalo.

This week’s Bills opponent, New England, has a defense that is notoriously difficult to beat with the running game. The Patriots rank second in the NFL when it comes to run defense this season, as they allow just 94 rushing yards per game.

That number is impressive enough, of course, but in recent weeks the Patriots have become even more stingy on the ground. They allowed just 43 rushing yards two weeks ago against Kansas City, limiting the Chiefs’ Clyde Edwards-Helaire to only 2.8 yards per carry. One week before that, New England held Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris to 29 yards on 12 carries, or only 2.4 yards per attempt.

I expect that the Bills will struggle to establish their running this weekend and have to quickly turn to airing it out with quarterback Josh Allen. Buffalo hasn’t needed to do that for a couple of weeks, so it could be problematic for the Bills, but they will have to figure it out without major input from Cook.

The Pick: James Cook Under 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Best Chargers vs Broncos Player Prop Bet 

Jarrett Stidham

Jarrett Stidham will officially take over as the Denver Broncos’ starting quarterback this weekend. While there might be some financial reasons for benching former starter Russell Wilson, the decision to do it is purely performance-related.

While playing for the Raiders in Week 17 last season, Stidham threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers in his first start of the year. He took over from Derek Carr with two games left on the 2022 schedule, and he is now getting the same opportunity with Denver in 2023.

Bear in mind that Sean Payton brought Stidham to Denver as his preferred backup quarterback after taking over as the Broncos’ head coach. In addition, Stidham was given a two-year, $10 million contract that makes him one of the highest-paid backups in the NFL.

With two games left in the regular season, Payton wants to see what Stidham has to offer. I expect to see Stidham throw the football fearlessly with a style we haven’t seen from the Broncos all year.

With Wilson at QB, things have been very methodical -- and oftentimes dull – in Denver. Stidham will be looking to hit wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy down the field, and he has a great shot at a big day against a struggling Los Angeles Chargers secondary.

While the Chargers might be a little rejuvenated after the firing of former head coach Brandon Staley, Los Angeles’ secondary is still one of the worst in the league. Stidham’s passing-yardage line feels a little modest, and I think he will clear it comfortably.

The Pick: Jarrett Stidham Over - Passing Yards (---)

Best Cardinals vs Eagles Player Prop Bet

Jalen Hurts

Former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s upcoming return to Philadelphia as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals has received plenty of attention, and the Philly fan base looks forward to booing him for all four quarters on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.

Eagles fans largely blamed Gannon for their team’s defensive meltdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in last season’s Super Bowl. They will now get a chance to let him hear how they feel.

That issue aside, this is a dangerous game for the Eagles. Gannon knows Philadelphia’s team, its players, and most of all, its quarterback. He has coached against Jalen Hurts in practice for multiple years every day. He therefore knows what makes Hurts tick and what can throw him off his axis.

The main question at this point is the execution of the Cardinals’ defense. Gannon might have a system he believes in, but does he have the players to make that system effective? Arizona cut cornerback Marco Wilson this week with the belief that other guys in the locker room deserve a shot. We’ll see how that goes in this game against the Eagles.

When one considers how Philadelphia has struggled offensively this season -- particularly in recent weeks -- all signs, in my mind at least, point toward a disjointed performance from Hurts against a coordinator who knows him well.

Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson’s offense hasn’t been anywhere near the standard set by his predecessor, Shane Steichen, last year. That could spell trouble for Philly in a potential trap game against a team with nothing to lose.

The Pick: Jalen Hurts Under - Passing Yards (-110)

Odds are subject to change*

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