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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5 - SNF

Best Falcons vs. Texans Player Prop Bets

Bijan Robinson

Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson already looks like one of the best running backs in the league, operating with an incredible burst and an uncanny ability to slice past defenders. His rushing yards line is set at 79.5, which is too low for his over/under on Sunday. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has been under a lot of pressure this week to replace starting quarterback Desmond Ridder, but he has surprisingly stuck with the struggling sophomore. This means Smith needs a win to justify his decision, and Bijan Robinson is his best bet to get that victory.

The Houston Texans are yielding 88.8 yards per game to opposing running backs, and they have yet to face an offensive line and running back combination as talented as Atlanta’s. Robinson has rushed for more than 100 yards in two of his last three games, with the lone sub-100 game coming against a very good Lions run defense. His running partner, Tyler Allgeier, has also seen his carries fall from 15 and 16 in the first two weeks, to just seven in each of the last two. Allgeier is talented, but Robinson is a freak.

Robinson has taken over the Falcons’ backfield, and Atlanta is in desperate need of a win against a beatable opponent. I would be shocked if he doesn’t top 100 yards in this game.

The Pick: Over 79.5 rushing yards (-115)

Best Lions vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets 

Adam Thielen

I know, I can’t believe that I am writing this either, but here we are. Adam Thielen is very relevant in the 2023 NFL season.

After leaving Minnesota and being written off by many, a 33-year-old Thielen is currently one of the NFL’s top 15 receivers when it comes to total yardage. This puts him ahead of stars such as Ja'Marr Chase and DK Metcalf. Thielen's productive start to the season has resulted from his being a reliable veteran presence for a rookie quarterback on a team that has very little talent among its wide receivers.

Over the past three weeks, Thielen has been targeted 31 times, catching passes for 275 yards. During that stretch, he has gone over this week’s yardage mark of 49.5 every time. Although his highest yardage game happened with Andy Dalton playing quarterback while rookie Bryce Young was injured, that doesn’t stop this from being a fantastic bet. Last week, with Young at QB, Thielen had seven receptions on eight targets for 76 yards.

The Detroit Lions will score points in this game, so the Panthers will have to utilize their passing game to keep up with the home team. Even if this game script were more favorable to Carolina, Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard are giving the Panthers very little efficiency in the running game. The two running backs combined for 60 yards on 27 rushes in Week 4 against the Vikings. Given that fact, we should expect to see a lot more passes from Young, who will continue to use Thielen as a safety net rather than rely on underwhelming pass-catchers such as Terrace Marshall Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., DJ Chark Jr., and tight end Hayden Hurst. Thielen should storm past his 49.5-yard line on Sunday.

The Pick: Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

Best Patriots vs. Saints Player Prop Bets Chris Olave

New Orleans wide receiver Chris Olave had the first disappointing week of his season in the Saints’ most recent game vs. Tampa Bay. While it’s worth noting that this happened in the same game that running back Alvin Kamara returned to the lineup, Olave’s yardage drop doesn't concern me too much. He ended up with just one catch for four yards against the Bucs, but he had 146 air yards on his six targets. The sophomore receiver is the focal point of the Saints’ passing attack and is simply too good to get lost in the shuffle.

One explanation for his poor Week 4 efficiency could be related to Derek Carr's shoulder injury, which is surely limiting the quarterback’s longer passes. Carr has now had an extra week to recover, and Saints fans will be hoping that he can re-establish the chemistry with Olave that led to at least 10 targets and 86 yards in each of the first three weeks.

The Patriots boast a very good defense, but they just lost star rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Although New England signed J.C. Jackson to make up for that loss, Olave should have a slightly easier day than expected this weekend. Look for the Saints to bounce back on Sunday and for Olave to be a big reason why.

The Pick: Over 63.5 receiving yards (-125)

Best Steelers vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets

Najee Harris

It has been an ugly start to the season for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and running back Najee Harris has not been able to provide any sort of spark so far. He is now entering his third season in the league, and his career yards-per-carry average sits around the 3.9 mark. Unfortunately, that is exactly how it looks on the field, where Harris often seems to be running through mud.

To make matters worse, Harris shares the Steelers backfield with sophomore running back Jaylen Warren, who averaged 4.9 yards-per-carry last season. Warren simply looks more explosive and more likely to rip off a big play, so the two are probably going to be share the workload for the foreseeable future. There is even a chance that Warren becomes the favored back later in the season.

The situation becomes even more unpredictable when one considers that Pittsburgh starting quarterback Kenny Pickett got hurt last weekend, meaning a backup QB will start on Sunday against Baltimore. It will most likely be Mitch Trubisky, but Mason Rudolph is also available.

Regardless of which QB plays, I don't like the Steelers’ chances against a Ravens defense that is shaping up as one of the best in the league. I suspect Pittsburgh will struggle to move the ball and potentially find itself facing a negative game script. If that happens, there will be limited opportunities for the Steelers running backs, and since Warren offers more explosiveness out of the backfield, Harris might struggle to make an impact on this game.

The Pick: Under 48.5 rushing yards (-110)

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