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Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs has really hit his stride after a relatively quiet start to his life in the NFL. He now consistently proves himself to be one of the Lions’ most dangerous offensive weapons. The fact that he’s splitting carries with David Montgomery hasn’t hindered his production or ability to find the end zone, and he’s also making waves in the passing game, as was expected when he came out of college.

Over the past four weeks, Gibbs has maxed out at 11 carries while playing in an offense where touches are spread between several different weapons. Despite his limited workload as a ball-carrier, Gibbs has still managed to put up a minimum of 54 rushing yards in each of those four games. He enters this weekend on the heels of an 11-carry, 100-yard performance against the Denver Broncos.

On Sunday, Gibbs will face a stubborn Minnesota Vikings defensive front that is especially dominant against the run. The Vikings have one of the NFL's best performing defenses in 2023 and are allowing the league’s fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (92). That might mean limited opportunities on the ground and a hard-fought road to significant rushing yards for the Lions’ running backs. However, if this game goes the way I expect it to, then Detroit should get out in front, which will likely boost the potential for the Lions to turn to the ground game.

I suspect that the Lions could go up by two scores against Minnesota QB Nick Mullens and the Vikings. At that point, Detroit would likely try to hold the football and leaning into its running game a little more. Gibbs only needs to break one run for a 30-yard gain to give himself a great shot at cashing the over, so I’m taking it here despite the strength of the Vikings’ defensive front.

The Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jake Ferguson

The Dallas Cowboys will be in Miami on Christmas Eve for a heavyweight matchup with the hometown Dolphins. Quarterback Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense struggled against Buffalo last weekend, and they will now have to go up against defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's Miami defense, which has been building significant momentum throughout the season.

Linebacker Bradley Chubb is now excelling in South Florida, and Miami has been able to apply consistent pressure up the middle with interior linemen Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins. The game plan will be to apply pressure and take away Prescott’s primary option in wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who will likely have cornerback Jalen Ramsey following him for four quarters.

Given all of this, I really like the line set for Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson this week. He could have a big day over the middle of the field, making it so the Cowboys don’t have to play on the perimeter against the Dolphins’ talented cornerbacks.

Ferguson has emerged as a superb pass-catching tight end this year with over 600 yards and five TDs. He has gone over 70 receiving yards twice in the past three games and still managed to gain 44 yards on six receptions during the Dallas offense’s ugly outing at Buffalo last week.

The Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

DK Metcalf

Wide receiver DK Metcalf has had yet another solid years for the Seattle Seahawks and looks to be on pace for his third 1,000-yard season since 2020. This week, he’ll have Geno Smith back as his starting quarterback, which will no doubt be a boost for this Seahawks team trying to clinch a playoff berth over the season’s final three weeks.

Metcalf has caught passes for at least 78 receiving yards in four of his last six games and broken 90 yards in three of them. This weekend, he goes up against a Tennessee Titans secondary that has consistently ranked in the bottom third of the NFL this season and has allowed an average of 233 passing yards over the past three games.

The Titans have already been eliminated from playoff contention, while Seattle has everything to play for in this game. Finding Metcalf for multiple big gains on the outside could prove a key to victory, and I don’t doubt Smith will be looking for him against a defense that doesn’t have the corners to contend with Metcalf’s combination of speed and power.

Tennessee has struggled with the deep ball this year, and I’ll be looking for Seattle head coach Pete Carroll and his staff to exploit that. Metcalf is often the guy the Seahawks go to on a one-on-one go ball, and those opportunities -- combined with his ability to pick up a short-yardage reception and take it for a big gain -- gives me complete confidence that he will reach the over this week.

The Pick: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Sam Howell

The Washington Commanders’ offense has turned in two rather poor performances over the past two weeks. Quarterback Sam Howell threw for just 127 yards against the Miami Dolphins on Dec. 3 and 102 against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend.

His performance against the Rams was so poor that Howell was eventually benched in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Turnovers have been a real problem for the former North Carolina Tar Heel in recent weeks. Howell has now thrown six interceptions in his last four starts, including the three he gave up in the Commanders’ Nov. 19 unraveling against the New York Giants.

With three games remaining in the season, Howell will be doing everything he can to secure Washington’s starting job for 2024, but life won’t be easy for him against the New York Jets this weekend.

Jets head coach Robert Saleh’s defense struggled against the Miami Dolphins in a 30-0 loss last Sunday. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel had come prepared for New York with a game plan that allowed the Dolphins to execute without taking too many risks or throwing too far downfield.

The Washington Commanders throw the ball a lot, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy certainly won’t shy away from the passing game. Howell will be looking to bounce back, but I think the chances of him making a mistake against the Jets are relatively high.

In a game where the Commanders’ quarterback will be trying to desperately prove his worth, an errant throw feels plausible, so I’m backing him to have at least one turnover against a very talented Jets secondary.

The Pick: Sam Howell Over 0.5 Interceptions (-173)

Odds are subject to change*

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