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Top NFL Player-Prop Bets for Week 15

Javonte Williams

The Detroit Lions have been one of the better teams against the run this season, although they have let their foot off the gas in recent weeks. The absence of defensive tackle Alim McNeill is going to be felt on the interior of Detroit’s defensive line on Saturday evening, which could present an opportunity for Denver running back Javonte Williams.

Faced with an explosive Lions offense, the Broncos will be looking to hold on to the football as much as possible. Given the option to find space up the middle with McNeill out, Williams could see his volume of carries and resulting production become enough to hit the over this week.

Williams has had a solid year, and his involvement in the Broncos offense is consistent. He has had three catches in each of the past three games and averaged 15 rushing attempts during that span. He has not rushed for fewer than 46 yards in any of those three games, and he finally managed to score his first rushing touchdown of the season in Week 14.

Detroit allowed both Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs and L.A. Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to go over 60 yards in recent weeks, and I think we will see the same this week from Williams during a game in which the Broncos need to be extremely smart. A win on Saturday would keep Denver in contention with the Kansas City Chiefs for the division title, and the Broncos will want to run the football to limit the amount of time available to Detroit’s offense.

The Pick: Javonte Williams Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Bailey Zappe

New England quarterback Bailey Zappe will go head-to-head with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes this weekend after achieving a major career high point by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers on national TV. Sunday’s game could be a “back to earth” moment, but it could also be the second episode in the Zappe resurgence story.

Mahomes and the Chiefs will be on a mission this week after displaying outrage over an official’s call that ruled out a Kadarius Toney touchdown and cost Kansas City a potential win over Buffalo. Mahomes lost his cool, and head coach Andy Reid also made some harsh comments as the Chiefs ultimately embarrassed themselves in the wake of a close loss. In any case, they weren’t happy about it, and they will now look to take out that frustration on the Patriots.

Facing the Chiefs’ stubborn defense won’t be easy for Zappe, especially since the Patriots lack standout talent at wide receiver. While the Chiefs have struggled offensively, their defense has carried them, and I’m expecting a very impressive performance against New England.

Zappe has thrown three picks over his last four games, including the win over the Steelers. The Patriots’ running game has been heavily impacted by the absence of RB Rhamondre Stevenson, and Zappe could be forced into third-and-long throwing situations against a secondary that plays the ball well.

I expect to see at least one interception in this one, which won’t be an easy game for the Patriots’ QB.

The Pick: Bailey Zappe Over 0.5 Interceptions (-175)

Brock Purdy

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has had back-to-back games with over 300 passing yards. He threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles before adding another 368 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle in Week 14.

This week, Purdy gets a shot at Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon, who was Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator last year when the Eagles topped the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Purdy never got a chance to show up Gannon in that game due to an early injury, but he likely hasn’t forgotten what Gannon’s defense did to his team. Gannon might now be in Arizona, but I still like this storyline as an opportunity for Purdy to prove himself once again.

Purdy’s critics like to claim that he is simply a game-manager, but no matter which side of that argument you sit on, there’s no denying the San Francisco quarterback’s output this season. He was just 20 yards shy of having 700 total passing yards over his last two starts, and that statistic appeals to me heading into this weekend's game against the Cardinals.

Arizona is one of a few NFL teams facing a hefty offseason rebuild, and the Cardinals certainly don’t have the pieces on defense right now to contain Purdy and his wide range of options in the Niners’ offense.

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has been electric, but he’s not the only one playing at a high level in San Francisco. Fellow wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle, and running back Christian McCaffrey make up what is currently the most dangerous offense in football, and there’s just no way the Cardinals are going to be able to deal with all of them.

Arizona has allowed an average of 241 passing yards over its last three games, including the 336 that the Cardinals gave up to rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Purdy should therefore have another big game, and I’ll take the over in this one.

The Pick: Brock Purdy Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Dak Prescott

This is my favorite line of the week. Quarterback Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys’ offense have been a different animal since a bye in Week 7. What we’re seeing now isn’t even remotely comparable to their early-season performances.

Over the first six games of the season, Prescott averaged one touchdown pass per game. During that span, he threw for multiple touchdowns only once -- in Week 2 against the shell-shocked New York Jets. Since the team’s bye week, Prescott’s average has increased to 3.1 passing touchdowns per game. He has thrown for four touchdowns three times in the last seven games and has had at least two TD passes in all seven games.

The Cowboys’ upcoming opponent, Buffalo, has everything to play for right now, but the Bills are about to run into the highest-scoring offense in football – one which does most of its damage through the air. Prescott is an MVP candidate for a reason, and has a great chance of winning that award if he keeps performing at his current level.

Buffalo’s defense has been heavily depleted by injuries, and I respect the job the team has done in the absence of some of key starters. However, in my mind, it’s almost inevitable that Prescott with throw for two touchdowns against the Bills.

This will be a closely contested game and perhaps the biggest thriller of the weekend, but I’m expecting Prescott to throw two TD passes at the very least. Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson are proven red-zone threats, and a swing pass to running back Tony Pollard is always an option, too.

The Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-186)

Odds are subject to change*

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