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Top NFL Player-Prop Bets Today for Week 13

Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has had his critics since being drafted with the No. 1 overall pick in 2016. Many of these critics argued that he wasn't good simply because he didn't get to start under head coach Jeff Fisher early in his rookie season with the Rams.

Fast forward to what is now his eighth season in the league and Goff has silenced many of his doubters. He faced similar criticism after the Rams’ loss in Super Bowl LIII, and when he was traded to Detroit, the expectation was that the Lions would use Goff as a bridge quarterback before replacing him.

That hasn’t happened, and Goff is now on the verge of a pretty elaborate contract extension if he’s able to continue to lead the Lions the way he has over the past two seasons. Nevertheless, Goff's performance in the last two games has been quite disappointing, especially in terms of protecting the football.

He was picked off three times against Chicago on Nov. 19, even though that was something we have seen him work to avoid. He then fumbled three times against Green Bay on Thanksgiving.

Goff’s slight performance dip – in combination with the reputation of the New Orleans Saints defense -- has resulted in his passing-yardage line being set at 259.5 for Sunday’s game. I think he will comfortably clear that number.

The Saints combine pressure up front with tight coverage in the secondary really well, but this matchup favors the Lions. Goff is one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this year, and he has one of the league’s most experienced and well-established offensive lines playing in front of him. The Saints are also missing cornerback Marshon Lattimore in their secondary, and while I really like Paulson Adebo as his replacement at CB1, Lattimore’s absence will still be felt.

Goff has thrown for more than 260 yards in five of his last six starts and cleared 300 in three of those games. Even a bad game for Goff results in 250-plus yards.

The Pick: Jared Goff Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Tyreek Hill

If there has ever been a week in which Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill could have more than 200 receiving yards, then it's this week. The Dolphins head to Maryland to face the Washington Commanders, who have already fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer after a dismal display against opposing offenses so far this season.

This weekend, Commanders head coach Ron Rivera will run his team’s defense, but it's a pretty tall task to silence a group of Miami receivers -- which includes Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and others -- with one of the league's worst secondaries.

The Commanders allow an average of 265 passing yards per game this season, and they have given up an average of 300 over their last three games. Dallas QB Dak Prescott threw for 331 yards against them on Thanksgiving, and Giants third-string rookie QB Tommy DeVito took advantage of Washington’s defense to throw for 246 yards and three touchdowns two weeks ago.

Miami’s offense is built around rhythm and timing. We have seen the Dolphins struggle when their rhythm is disrupted, but Washington isn't going to be able to do that. The Commanders’ defensive front now lacks any real pressure on the quarterback, and the Washington secondary does not have the experience or man-cover corners to slow down Tyreek Hill.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could have a big day here, and I think Hill will run away from this defense on more than one occasion.

The Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 99.5 (-120)

George Kittle

What a game this is going to be on Sunday afternoon -- a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Niners are slight favorites in this one, and they have looked superb offensively in recent weeks with each of their stars playing a key role in an unstoppable scoring unit.

Choosing just one of the 49ers players for a player-prop parlay this weekend is tough. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has managed two 100-yard games in his last four starts, Christian McCaffrey is in a league of his own at running back, and receiver Deebo Samuel is finally looking like the best version of himself again.

My pick this week, however, is tight end George Kittle, who will be facing a defense that has struggled to contain tight ends all season long.

Kittle had a quiet day last Sunday with just 19 receiving yards in a 31-13 win at Seattle, but in his three previous games, he was one of the best tight ends in football with superb production on a consistent basis.

This week, he gets to play against the NFL’s eighth-worst defense when it comes to defending against tight ends this season. Statistically, the Eagles allow an average of five receptions for more than 47 yards and 0.55 touchdowns per game against the position. That ties Philadelphia for the highest opposing TE touchdown rate in the league, and points toward some of the struggles the Eagles have faced filling a void at linebacker and safety this season.

I like Kittle to have a great performance in this one, and the entire 49ers offense is going to be fired up to prove a point against Philadelphia after that nightmare NFC Championship Game earlier in this calendar year.

The Pick: George Kittle Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson’s touches are way up over his last two appearances, and it is proving to be an extremely effective formula for this Falcons offense. Robinson hadn’t cleared 11 carries for three straight games, but he then picked up 22 against the Arizona Cardinals on Nov. 12 and 16 more in last Sunday’s game against the rival New Orleans Saints.

Robinson has been splitting carries with Tyler Allgeier all season, but he now appears to be the lead back in Atlanta’s offense. His 22 carries against Arizona resulted in 95 rushing yards and a touchdown, and one game later he posted another 91 yards on the ground with just 16 carries against one of the better defenses in football.

The Falcons rookie star has rushed for touchdowns in three of his last four games. At this point, I don’t doubt that the team will keep feeding him the football both on the ground and as part of its passing game.

This weekend, Robinson has a favorable matchup against the New York Jets with his rushing yardage line set at just 58.5.

The Jets allow an average of 140 rushing yards per game this season, which marks the NFL’s second-worst performance ahead of only the Denver Broncos. I sort of feel for the Jets defense this year. These defensive players have been forced to face endless onslaughts because their teammates on the offense struggle to stay on the field. The result is often a lot of time and a lot of plays in which New York’s opponents can put up yards and score points. Robinson should get plenty of work this weekend as the Falcons look to capitalize on that extra playing time.

The Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

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