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Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Week 11

Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk is the alpha receiver on the San Francisco 49ers, even though his numbers might not be the most eye-catching and he plays for the team that gave Deebo Samuel a huge contract. Aiyuk is a silky route-runner and the primary target when Niners QB Brock Purdy throws deeper down the field.

Aiyuk only had three targets last week because the Jacksonville Jaguars were unable to stop the 49ers from building up a big lead, but he made the most of his limited opportunities by catching all three passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. That’s what you call efficient.

This week, Aiyuk will be going up against a Tampa Bay secondary that allows the league’s second-most receiving yards per game. Over their last three games, the Bucs have allowed an average of 307 yards through the air. 

San Francisco’s players are all healthy again, and the team has greatly benefited from the return of star left tackle Trent Williams. With Williams back in the lineup, Purdy has returned to form. The 49ers should have no trouble dicing up this Buccaneers secondary. Aiyuk will be the primary target downfield, and he should storm past 66.5 yards.

The Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Javonte Williams

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams is back at full strength, and head coach Sean Payton has given Williams 48 carries and seven targets over the last two games in making him the focal point of Denver’s offense. During this stretch, the Broncos have managed to topple AFC powerhouses Buffalo and Kansas City.

This week, Denver turns its attention to Minnesota. The Vikings have a stout run defense that allows opponents only 3.7 yards per carry. However, Denver will still want to utilize its running backs in the passing game. Broncos QB Russell Wilson is playing much better, but that is partly because he is not being asked to do too much. He is operating as a good game manager and not making mistakes, while much of the heavy lifting is done by Williams and the other running backs.

Reducing the workload piled on Wilson’s shoulders will be a primary focus for Payton going forward, which suggests to me that in this game we will see a few more check-downs to Williams than we typically expect. Last week, he caught all four of his targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. He is a big, bruising running back, but he’s also good with his hands and shifty when he needs to be. The Broncos will be desperate to keep their winning streak going, and Williams should be the team’s primary weapon.

The Pick: Javonte Williams Over 30+ Receiving Yards (+210) 

Dalton Kincaid

The Buffalo Bills have had their struggles on offense recently, but tight end Dalton Kincaid has stood out as an emerging star. It took a while for this rookie to get going, and he was splitting work with Dawson Knox earlier in the season. The Bills ran a lot of 12 personnel with both tight ends healthy, and it was difficult for Kincaid to impact the game.

Since Knox landed on IR, it has been a completely different story in Buffalo. Kincaid has had at least six targets and 51 yards in each of his last four games. This was capped by a 10-reception, 81-yard game against the Bengals two weeks ago. He is thriving as his team’s sole tight end and has emerged as Buffalo’s second-best receiving option behind Stefon Diggs. 

This week, Kincaid goes up against a New York Jets defense that is particularly tough on wide receivers, but softer against tight ends. With Diggs and Gabe Davis in for tough matchups, I expect to see Bills quarterback Josh Allen make Kincaid his primary target.

Of the 32 targets Kincaid has received over the last four weeks, only four have been incompletions. He is delivering on his high draft position and is one of my favorite bets this week.

The Pick: Dalton Kincaid over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tank Dell

This season’s C.J. Stroud story is nothing short of spectacular. The Houston QB is having one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, currently sitting in second place on the passing-yardage leaderboard with 2,626 yards. One of the main beneficiaries of his incredible season has been wide receiver Tank Dell.

Dell, also a rookie, flashed his big-play ability early in the season but was limited by a low target-share. Since the team’s bye week, Dell’s fortunes have changed drastically. He has become a much bigger part of the offense, converting 25 targets over the last two weeks into 170 yards and three touchdowns. He clearly now has Stroud’s trust, which should come as no surprise after the two hooked up twice inside the final 16 seconds to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago. 

Dell is a dangerous deep threat who has showcased his excellent route-running skills and speed to get loose for multiple scores this season. He has become a favorite Stroud target, and Sunday’s home game against Arizona should prove fruitful for the rookie. Arizona allows opposing QBs a 69 percent completion rate, so I will be backing Dell to continue his hot streak and surpass his line this week.

The Pick: Tank Dell over 50+ Receiving Yards (-145)

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