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The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs shift to Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday’s YellaWood 500 -- the second of three races in the Round of 12 schedule. The playoff standings are tightening, and every lap will matter right up until the Round of 12 ends next weekend with a race at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Road Course. Let's take a look at the YellaWood 500 favorites and a potential YellaWood 500 sleeper to determine who will head for the Round of 12 finale on the heels of a big victory.

YellaWood 500 Schedule – NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 12

Date: Oct. 1, 2023
TV-Time: 2 p.m. ET
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Lincoln, Ala.
Distance: 500 Miles
Laps: 188 Laps

Odds to win YellaWood 500 - NASCAR odds this weekendBrad Keselowski +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Bubba Wallace +1400
Chris Buescher +1400
Denny Hamlin +1400
Chase Elliott +1600
William Byron +1600
Kyle Busch +2000
Kyle Larson +2000
Alex Bowman +2500
Austin Cindric +2500
Chase Briscoe +2500
Kevin Harvick +2500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2500
Ross Chastain +2500
Tyler Reddick +2500
Martin Truex Jr.
Austin Dillon +2800
Daniel Suarez +3300
Erik Jones +3300
Martin Truex Jr +3300

See the full 2023 YellaWood 500 odds on Betway Sportsbook

NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500 Odds – Top 5 Finish Brad Keselowski + 225
Bubba Wallace + 225
Chris Buescher +225
Denny Hamlin +225
Joey Logano +225
Ryan Blaney +225
Chase Elliott +260
William Byron +260
Aric Almirola +300
Christopher Bell +300
Kyle Busch +300
Kyle Larson +300
Alex Bowman +350
Austin Cindric +400
Chase Briscoe +400
Kevin Harvick +400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +400
Ross Chastain +400
Tyler Reddick +400
Austin Dillon +450
Martin Truex Jr. +500
Daniel Suarez +550

NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500 Odds – Winning Manufacturer

Chevrolet +130
Ford +130
Toyota +350

2023 YellaWood 500 Starting lineup

The YellaWood 500 starting lineup will be determined after a qualifying race scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday. In the qualifying race, drivers will be timed on their speed at Talladega -- with the fastest times starting first and the slowest times starting toward the rear.

2023 YellaWood 500 Betting Preview and Predictions 

While betting on NASCAR races can be difficult, my list of YellaWood 500 picks below is data-driven and focuses on drivers who have had great success at Talladega Superspeedway in the past. So, without further delay, here are this weekend's NASCAR picks for the playoff race at Talladega.

2023 YellaWood 500 Best Bets: Top picks

Since NASCAR switched to the next-gen cars, Aric Almirola has yet to have a top-10 finish at Talladega Superspeedway, placing no better than 13th. Although he hasn’t done a lot of winning on superspeedways, Christopher Bell always finds a way to finish near the front of the pack, especially in the postseason. Bell has finished in the top 10 in each of his last three races, including top-5 finishes in his past two. With NASCAR getting ready to move on to Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Road Course next week, Bell senses a win on the horizon, because he’s NASCAR’s finest on road courses or dirt tracks. Expect another top-10 finish or better, which will enable Bell to win his race matchup over Almirola. That’s the play we’ll take here.

The Pick: Christopher Bell over Aric Almirola (-118)

William Byron has dominated the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series all season long and is clearly one of this year’s best drivers. On the other hand, Chase Elliott has endured a suspension and injury that really affected his season. It was so tough for Elliott to make the postseason that, by the time he returned, he basically needed a victory just to get into the playoffs. He didn’t manage to make it, and he’s now really just racing for his fans while the top 16 pursue a championship. Elliott’s fans have had reason to cheer, because he has delivered a top-10 finish in four out his last five races and will look to continue that dominance on Sunday. Byron won at Texas Motor Speedway last week, and the points he earned there alone have already assured him a spot in the Round of 8.  At the moment, he can afford to coast at Talladega, since he has very little to lose. Of course, Byron will still be racing for additional playoff points, but Elliott has far more to prove and he’ has had more success at Talladega Superspeedway in the next-gen cars. Give me Elliott to beat out Byron on Sunday.

The Pick: Chase Elliott over William Byron (-118)

Kyle Busch’s crash and early exit in the first race of this Round of 12 has put him in a tough position. Busch, who currently sits in 12th place in the NASCAR playoff standings, likely needs a win at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. Luckily for him, Talladega has brought the “Candy Man” great success throughout his Cup Series career. He won at Talladega back in April and finished third last year. Since NASCAR’s switch to the next-gen cars, Talladega has been Busch’s premier track. He’ll be hoping for more of that success on Sunday, and given his history at Talladega, these odds appear too valuable to pass up.

The Pick: Kyle Busch to win (+2000)

NASCAR Sleepers Picks for Sunday - YellaWood 500

Daniel Suarez isn’t one of the 16 drivers in this year's playoff race, but he’s at the top of my list when it comes to discussing Yellawood 500 sleepers. Since NASCAR’s switch to the next-gen cars, Suarez has finished in the top 10 of every race at Talladega Superspeedway, although he was unable to finish one due to NASCAR’s damaged-vehicle policy. While he isn’t part of the postseason picture, he has still been racing hard, and I can see him stealing the spotlight on Sunday.

The Pick: Daniel Suarez to win (+3300)

Odds are subject to change*

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