Best 4-leg Same Game Parlay to bet on the Big Game (+400)
Alex Buck reveals his SGP picks today for Sunday's Big Game, with 4 best bets.
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Super Bowl 57 is here and that calls for my best Super Bowl parlay bets. With the end of the NFL season in sight, fans and punters alike turn to player props and betting odds to find their winning formula. So, let's make the most of this opportunity and place our Super Bowl picks and parlays.
Best Same Game Parlay Super Bowl 57 bets today for Chiefs vs Eagles: 4-Legs Parlay Pick (+400)
Patrick Mahomes - Player Passing Yards
Super Bowl 57 sees Patrick Mahomes playing in his third Super Bowl in just five seasons as the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs, which is a remarkable achievement. This could serve as a lesson to the rest of the NFL about the benefits of allowing a new quarterback to sit out their rookie season instead of putting them in a difficult situation before they are fully prepared (such as the recent case of Zach Wilson).
At first glance, it seems like a safe bet for Patrick Mahomes to surpass 299.5 passing yards in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs QB had a remarkable regular season, throwing for a league-leading 5,250 yards and averaging 308 yards per game.
However, Mahomes faces a new and improved Philadelphia Eagles defense, especially in the secondary. The Eagles boast the NFL's best pass defense, allowing just 179 passing yards per game during the regular season.
They fortified their secondary in the off-season by adding safety CJ Gardner Johnson from New Orleans and free agent corner, James Bradberry, to a group that already included a revitalized Darius Slay and young safety Marcus Epps. This defense can take away most options and Mahomes may struggle to find yardage.
In two previous Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes has failed to surpass the over/under line set for passing yards. The Super Bowl requires a more strategic approach and coach Andy Reid knows that. The running backs will likely play a significant role, and I'm not confident Mahomes will clear the over. Particularly since he has yet to do so in a Super Bowl, even when he had WR Tyreek Hill on the field alongside him.
I expect tight end Travis Kelce to be involved against the Eagles linebackers and will consider him later in today's parlay. For now, I'm taking the under on Patrick Mahomes' passing yards for the game.
Leg 1 SGP Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 299.5 Passing Yards (-125)
DeVonta Smith - Player Receiver Stats
DeVonta Smith has elevated his game this season, playing alongside the recently acquired A.J. Brown. Some fantasy owners may have worried that Smith's involvement would decrease with Brown joining from Tennessee, but the opposite was seen in the 2022 season.
Smith's receptions rose from 64 in 2021 to 96 in 2022 as the Eagles implemented a new passing game with Jalen Hurts and his receivers. The Eagles' ability to shift from a run-focused playbook in 2021 to a well-balanced one in 2022 is a significant factor in their Super Bowl LVII appearance, and DeVonta Smith has been a key player in this plan all season.
The former Alabama wideout caught at least five passes in seven straight games prior to the Conference Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers. That game can be viewed as an exception since the Eagles didn't have to rely on their passing game to defeat a quarterback-less 49ers team, but the Super Bowl will present a different scenario.
Smith benefits from a lot of crossing routes and slants/digs but has also proven to be a very reliable deep target for Hurts should they want to take deep shots. I expect them to do exactly that against a Kansas City Chiefs secondary that doesn’t boast the same level of experience as the Eagles unit. That said, the Chiefs rookie corners have really held their own this year, with Jaylen Watson (seventh round pick) and Trent McDuffie (first round pick) looking like great additions to the roster, despite being drafted at opposite ends of the 2022 NFL draft.
I anticipate that DeVonta Smith will secure at least 4 receptions in the Super Bowl, showing his ability to perform well in high-pressure situations. As demonstrated in the 2018 National Championship where he caught the game-winning touchdown in overtime against the Georgia Bulldogs. However, let's hope that Jalen Hurts isn't substituted during halftime this time around.
Leg 2 SGP Pick: DeVonta Smith 4+ Receptions (-475)
Isiah Pacheco - Player Receiver Stats
I was really interested to see where this specific line would land for the Super Bowl after the Chiefs shook things up with their running backs in the Conference Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Andy Reid gave the majority of the running back targets in the passing game to rookie Isiah Pacheco, rather than Jerick McKinnon. As a result, Pacheco recorded a season-best 5 receptions for 59 yards, more than doubling his contribution on the ground.
Isiah Pacheco is part of the seventh-round value the Chiefs managed to bring in in the 2022 NFL draft. Both Pacheco and previously mentioned cornerback Jaylen Watson have been vital parts of the starting rotations on their respective sides of the ball, both as seventh round draft picks. That’s impressive.
Former Rutgers running back Isiah Pacheco had 830 rushing yards as a rookie in the regular season, earning his way into more carries in the second half of the season. He is now the teams’ lead back, getting the lion's share of carries, and now apparently receptions too.
After averaging 11.8 yards per catch in the Conference Championship, I would expect to see Pacheco easily hit 10 + receiving yards, especially considering how talented the Eagles secondary is down field. Short throws to Pacheco allowing him to flourish after the catch seems like a very logical move.
Leg 3 SGP Pick: Isiah Pacheco 10 + Receiving Yards (-230)
Jalen Hurts - Player Passing Yards
I am a big Jalen Hurts guy. I’m thrilled he’s getting a shot at a Super Bowl, and it would be the ultimate win for him in a career that’s been filled with ups and downs, including transferring away from Alabama and being a heavily criticized draft pick when the Eagles selected him.
While seeing Hurts win a Super Bowl would be great for college and pro football fans who sit on neutral ground, his 274.5 passing yardage line is high for a game of this magnitude.
Initially, the Philadelphia Eagles would prefer not to be in a situation where Jalen Hurts must generate nearly 300 yards of offense. This would put them in a difficult position against the formidable combination of Patrick Mahomes and Coach Andy Reid. Instead, the Eagles aim to keep the Chiefs' offense off the field by controlling possession and relying on their running backs, as they have in the postseason so far.
While Jalen Hurts is of course more than capable of making the big plays, whether it be a deep ball to either one of his key threats at wide receiver or taking off with his legs, it shouldn’t be the game plan for this Philly team.
The Eagles have relied heavily on their strong defense this season, and it is often the defensive side of the game that rises to the occasion in Super Bowls. Although Hurts has had some impressive performances this season, if the Eagles fall behind and have to resort to desperation mode on offense, that could lead to a breakdown.
I expect Hurts to have a confident and commanding game, but I hope he doesn't have to reach 300 yards of offense. The same goes for Eagles fans, as reaching that number would indicate an inability to contain Patrick Mahomes, which is never a favorable outcome.
Leg 4 SGP Pick: Jalen Hurts 274.5 Passing Yards (-250)
I'm thrilled with my four Super Bowl parlay picks and eager to challenge the oddsmakers one last time before the NFL takes its annual break. Let's keep going strong, friends. We'll be back next season.
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