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Top NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard didn’t surpass the 55-yard mark any time between weeks 4 and 10. It took matchups with Carolina and Washington to surpass 60 yards in back-to-back games for the first time since week 3, and even then, he couldn’t make it past 80.

Dallas’ lead back is averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the year, and his yardage totals have suffered as a result of Dallas letting Dak cook. The Cowboys have been pass-happy ever since their week 7 bye, and it has produced magnificent results. Dak Prescott is an MVP front runner and CeeDee Lamb has proven he is a top-3 receiver in the league.

Pollard has had some good games but has mostly been the forgotten man. He now has to go up against a Philadelphia defense that is giving up just 90 rushing yards per game. That is the fourth-best in the NFL.

This game has shootout written all over it, pitching two of the best passing attacks against each other. For as good as the Eagles are at stopping the run, they are equally bad at stopping the pass. They are giving up the fourth most passing yards per game, making their secondary the clear avenue for attack.

Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP, and there is no reason to take the ball out of his hands. The Eagles should score points of their own, so I expect Dak and Jalen Hurts to dominate this game, with the running backs left aside. Pollard barely surpassed 60 yards against Seattle and Washington in recent weeks, so I don’t see him doing it against Philadelphia’s elite run defense.

The Pick: Tony Pollard under 60.5 Rushing Yard (-115)

DJ Moore

DJ Moore has been a stud with Justin Fields in the lineup. The duo has had at least 96 yards in their last four healthy games together, averaging 146 yards and a touchdown. That makes this week’s line of 69.5 look minuscule.

After targeting Moore 9 times in his first game back from injury,  Fields  looked his way 13 times last week against Minnesota, resulting in 11 receptions for 114 yards. He is by far the most talented pass catcher in Chicago and Fields knows it.

If the Bears want to record another win, DJ Moore is their best option. The Lions are a top 5 run defense, but amongst the bottom half of the league against the pass. They gave up 267 passing yards to the Saints’ struggling quarterbacks last week, and Moore is good enough to get the better of anyone they match up against him.

To make matters better, the Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They should have no issues putting up points on the Bears, which will mean Chicago have to go pass-happy to try and keep up. I expect Moore to be peppered with targets from Fields. He should race past his 69.5-yard line.

The Pick: DJ Moore over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Gerald Everett

When picking your player props, you obviously want to go for talented players, but you also have to look at the matchups. Denver stands out as one of the most favorable matchups for tight ends.

They have given up 852 yards and 6 touchdowns to the position this year. They have improved on the outside as well, with Patrick Surtain and the secondary playing well in recent weeks. That will encourage the Chargers to funnel even more targets inside to their tight end, Gerald Everett.

It has been a poor season for Everett, but a quarter of his targets on the season have come in the last two games. Four catches for 43 yards against Baltimore was followed up with 4 catches for 44 yards last week against New England. Those performances came against good defenses, which Denver are not. I think his line of 30.5 receiving yards is way too low.

There are not many viable targets for Justin Herbert to aim for. Keenan Allen is elite but clearly hobbled, Austin Ekeler is declining, and Quentin Johnston has been a bust of a first-round selection so far. When you add in the fact that the Broncos are better defending against wide receivers, I think Everett is in for his biggest game of the year.

The Pick: Gerald Everett over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa

283.5 is a high line for a quarterback, but it is justified in this instance, and we will be taking the over. Miami is averaging 32 points per game this year, boasting an offense that is littered with explosive playmakers.

Tennessee is a pretty poor team all around, but run-stopping is one place they excel. They are conceding just 3.7 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the NFL. Miami has a very good stable of running backs, but their wide receiver corps is one of the best in the league. It should be the passing attack that they rely on this week.

Tennessee is allowing a completion percentage of 67% this season, which puts them in the bottom third of the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should have no issues running rings around the secondary. Tua has hit the 280-yard mark seven times this year, and this week’s opponents mean an 8th performance of 280+ yardsis on the way.

Not only can he target the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, but he also benefits from De’Von Achane offering more explosiveness as a receiver out of the backfield. Getting him in space and targeting the receivers downfield will be the best way to navigate around Tennessee’s only strength, their defensive line.

I will be backing Tua to beat his 283.5-yard mark this weekend.

The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa over 283.5 Passing Yards (-115)

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