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Best NFL Player-Prop Bets for Week 12

Tank Dell

Tank Dell has emerged as one of the most impactful rookies of the 2023 NFL season, teaming up with fellow rookie and teammate C.J. Stroud to form an explosive partnership in Houston.

The Texans are slinging the football this season. Over the past three weeks, they have averaged a whopping 39.7 passing attempts per game, good for third in the league in that span.

Quarterback Stroud is not only a candidate for the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but his name is also being mentioned in the MVP conversation, and deservedly so.

Stroud’s performance has elevated the entire Houston offense, as tight end Dalton Schultz and wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell all seeing an uptick in their production.

Dell has surpassed 100 receiving yards twice in the past three games and has reached that number three times already this season. Considering his target split with Collins, Schultz, and others, Dell’s explosive style of play is resulting in a significant amount of yardage. He also has four touchdowns in his last three games alone.

I’ve got Tank Dell going over this week. The Jacksonville defense is great in the front seven, but it leaves a lot to be desired in the secondary. The Jaguars are allowing 255 passing yards per game, the fourth-worst mark in the league. They also failed to handle Dell the last time around, enabling him to rack up 145 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

The Pick: Tank Dell Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Khalil Shakir

This might feel like a strange name to see on a player-props parlay, but Buffalo wide receiver Khalil Shakir is still being overlooked by the oddsmakers, at least in my humble opinion.

Over the past five games Shakir has caught three or more passes four times. The only anomaly was the nightmare against Denver that led to the firing of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

Shakir has proven himself capable of being a great third option behind Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid, and he is becoming a bigger part of the Bills’ offense in his second NFL season.

Fellow receiver Gabe Davis will be a free agent at the end of this season, so perhaps the Bills are getting ready to move Shakir into a more prominent role. He is certainly making the most of the looks he gets when quarterback Josh Allen throws his way.

Targeted a total of 14 times in recent games against the Tampa Bay Bucs, Cincinnati Bengals, and New York Jets, Shakir caught 13 passes and broke 57 receiving yards in all three of those games. His best performance was his most recent one, as he had three catches for 115 yards and an explosive touchdown to help the Bills rout the Jets 32-6 last Sunday.

Shakir and the Bills play at Philadelphia this weekend. The Eagles’ defense with all its All-Pro caliber talent will surely focus on stopping Diggs and Kincaid. Darius Slay will cover Diggs, while Kevin Byard will cover Kincaid. Shakir will likely face the backup corners because of these assignments.

I think Shakir will clear his 29.5-yard line comfortably against an Eagles defense that surprisingly allows nearly 250 passing yards per game under defensive coordinator Sean Desai.

The Pick: Khalil Shakir Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Will Levis

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis' first NFL game announced his arrival in style. He threw for 234 yards and four touchdowns on Oct 29 at home against Atlanta, completing 64 percent of his passes in a 28-23 win.

While that performance piqued the interest of Titans fans and fantasy-football managers, it has so far been the only impactful game of Levis’ young career.

The rookie drafted by Tennessee in the second round has the opportunity to start for the Titans for the foreseeable future, but he is playing in less than ideal circumstances. Levis has been sacked 12 times over the past four games, while facing a total of 63 pressures.

If it weren’t for Levis’ ability to escape the pocket and try to make plays on the run, that sack number would be a lot higher. The Titans have plenty of work to do with their offensive line, and the general rhythm of the offense appears extremely poor under the current circumstances.

This has resulted in inconsistent plays and drives for Tennessee. Levis completed 56 percent of his passes on Nov. 2 at Pittsburgh and only 49 percent the following week against Tampa Bay. His career-high for completions so far is 22, but he has managed 19 or fewer in each of the other three games he has started.

The Titans host Carolina on Sunday, and despite their flaws, the Panthers’ defense is not allowing many yards through the air. Carolina gives up 179 passing yards per game, which ranks sixth in the league, and these Panthers have a front seven that will undoubtedly disrupt Tennessee’s rookie QB once again.

The Pick: Will Levis Under 18.5 Completions (-134) 

Jerome Ford

The Cleveland Browns have been facing their fair share of turbulence this season. They lost running back Nick Chubb to a heartbreaking knee injury earlier in the year, and they are now playing without No. 1 quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury two weeks ago.

PJ Walker has served as Cleveland’s backup QB for most of the season, but rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a fifth-round draft pick, will be the one starting again this weekend. The Browns signed 38-year-old Joe Flacco after the veteran visited the team last week, which could be either a sign of concern from the front office or a showing of support by bringing a former Super Bowl champion into the room with their young quarterbacks.

Regardless, if Cleveland wants to stay ahead of the curve in its division, the Browns need to play smart football, and the best way to do that in Sunday’s game at Denver will be to run the ball down the Broncos’ throats for four quarters.

I’d like to see DTR run a little more himself. We haven’t really seen many QB option plays or designed runs for such a mobile quarterback, but we should see plenty of carries by running back Jerome Ford.

The talented Browns defense allows plenty of time for its offense to control the football, and handing it to Ford 20 times or more on Sunday would certainly be a smart move. He had a quiet day with only 31 yards against the Steelers last weekend, but he rushed for 107 yards against Baltimore the week before.

Denver has the worst run defense in the league, allowing 160 rushing yards per game, so there should be plenty of room in which Ford can operate during Sunday's game.

The Pick: Jerome Ford Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

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