Commanders vs Giants Predictions, Odds, Picks, Props and SGP (+265)
Alex Buck makes his best NFL picks today and predictions for Commanders at Giants in Week 7 of the NFL 2023 season.
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Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Commanders vs Giants Week 7: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+265)
Leg 2: Under 37.5 Points (-110)
NFL SGP @(+265): (Bet $100 to Win $365). Get the best odds at Betway Sportsbook.
NFL Schedule Week 7 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Washington Commanders (3-3) vs New York Giants (1-5)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: MetLife Stadium — East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: fuboTV/NFL+
The New York Giants season seems to have quickly unraveled, and the timetable for the return of Daniel Jones is unknown following a neck injury similar to the one he sustained back in 2021.
After Brian Daboll's first season in charge and a playoff appearance, expectations were high for the Giants this year. However, they have significantly underperformed, already failing to even match last year's record.
This week they will host the division rival Commanders who will be looking for a win to keep the pace with the Dallas Cowboys.
The outcome of this one could be vital for both teams, especially if the Giants suffer a loss and end up 1-6 before facing the Jets in Week 8. Let’s break down the game, take a look at both sides and make some picks for the NFC East clash this coming Sunday.
Commanders vs Giants Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 7
Moneyline: Washington Commanders -145, New York Giants +115
Spread: Commanders -2.5 (-120), Giants +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 37.5 points
Commanders at Giants Preview
The New York Giants have yet to confirm an estimated return for Daniel Jones, who was out against Buffalo and has not yet been cleared for contact in practice. He’s throwing, but not competing, and that points towards at least one more start for Tyrod Taylor this coming weekend.
Tyrod started against his former team in the Buffalo Bills, but the results for the offense were much the same. He did throw for 200 yards, which was actually more than Josh Allen’s performance on the day, but the Giants are still lacking difference-makers on offense.
Darren Waller was the only significant addition to the offense during the offseason, and thus far his impact has been squashed by the lack of time in the pocket due to the nightmare situation of the offensive line, paired with inadequate play calling and quarterback play so far this season.
The Giants have no receivers who can consistently get open and rookie Jalin Hyatt has barely made an appearance so far this year, conforming fears that he wouldn’t be ready for the NFL with a very basic route running tree coming out of college.
Saquon Barkley’s 93 rushing yards against a strong defense was still not enough for the Giants to manage 10 points on the night, and even with a stellar defensive performance of their own they still ended up in defeat.
At this point, you have to question the morale in the locker room. The offensive line is quite literally hiring guys off the couch, which became a media hit this week when Justin Pugh highlighted that fact during the lineup announcement on TV. Pugh was signed to the practice squad, immediately thrown into the lineup, and forced to play three different positions on Sunday Night football, which is great for the story but horrific for the franchise to ever be in that situation in the first place.
First-round pick Evan Neal is struggling tremendously, allowing 29 QB pressures from his spot alone so far this season, and the rest of the makeshift line, or what's left of it, is barely holding it together.
The Giants are allowing an enormous 5.5 sacks per game, which is good for second in the league behind… Washington. The only team that allows their QB to get his more than the Giants is the team they’re playing against, which certainly contributes towards the 38.5 point total set for this game.
Sam Howell threw for almost 400 yards against the Chicago Bears in Week 5, and despite only throwing for 151 in Week 6 in Atlanta, he did throw three touchdown passes. That brings the Commanders QBs totals to five touchdowns and one pick in his last two games while starting to find a rhythm with his wide receivers.
Washington certainly benefited from three Desmond Ridder turnovers, and that took the pressure off Howell when it came to throwing the football downfield. This week the Commanders will have a good opportunity to establish the run, and if their defense holds up and forces another turnover or two, steady game management could once again be the plan for Howell in East Rutherford.
The Giants defense is allowing the second most rushing yards per game in the league, behind only the shambolic Denver Broncos run defense. Not only that, but the same Giants unit has managed just five sacks in six games total. Not per game, in total. That's four less sacks than the second worst teams in the league in the same category, both the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans, who are rebuilding.
The Commanders ran the ball horribly against the Falcons, with Brian Robinson leading the way with 10 carries for 31 rushing yards, but Atlanta has a much better defensive front right now than New York. If Washington can’t get their run game going here, then they don’t hold much hope in doing so anywhere else.
The struggling line is leading to a lot of quick release play calls that target the likes of Curtis Samuel. Samuel has emerged as one of Howell’s preferred targets, and that’s likely because it’s Samuel that runs a lot of the short to intermediate routes within this Commander's offense.
I’ll be expecting to see another 6+ targets for Samuel this coming Sunday, and a good volume of run plays called early for the Commanders on the road.
Commanders vs Giants Predictions & Picks
The Giants are in a very sorry state right now, and that’s only further highlighted by the fact that they’re the underdog at home against a 3-3 Commanders team with the worst offensive line in the league and a run game that has struggled for multiple weeks against middle-of-the-road opponents.
Unless Tyrod Taylor somehow puts on a masterclass and turns this unit around, the Commanders should walk out of MetLife with a win. The Giants are 1-5 on the season, and 1-5 against the spread with their only cover being a win against the 15.5 point line that favored the Buffalo Bills this past weekend.
I’m backing the Commanders to cover, unsurprisingly, and at this point can’t help but feel a little for the Giants and for the likes of Saquon Barkley, who are going to be fighting uphill for the rest of the season as things stand right now.
The Pick: Washington Commanders -2.5 (-120)
The points total is the lowest of the week, but I still like the under.
The Giants have contributed to the over in just one game, cashing unders in the other five. The Commanders are 3-3 against the points total, and while they might have the possession and ability to score 28 or more here, I really don’t know how the Giants reach 17 points of their own unless Saquon Barkley has a huge day out of the backfield.
I’ll take the under with the expectation for a 17-10 scoreline in this one.
The Pick: Under 37.5 Points (-110)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Commanders vs Giants
Saquon is going to be a pivotal piece of this game for the Giants, who have very little in the way of difference makers on the offensive side of the ball.
Tyrod Taylor will hand the ball off plenty against a strong pass rush, but as good as those rushers are, the Commanders are not so good at defending the run.
Barkley had 93 rushing yards in his first game back since Week 2 against Buffalo on Sunday night, and I’m backing him to clear the over again here against Washington.
I spoke about Curtis Samuel earlier and while waiting for the betting lines to come out, I estimated total of six catches in my mind. To see over/under 3.5 as the line with +110 odds on the over is very nice.
Samuel has had four or more catches in each of the last three games he’s played. In two of those games he had six or more.
The game script here will favor the Commanders getting multiple opportunities to drive down the field if the Giants can’t string together decent drives. That much seems inevitable and Samuel could top this number in the first half this Sunday.
The Pick: Curtis Samuel Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)
Odds are subject to change*
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