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Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 12

Moneyline: Washington Commanders +500, Dallas Cowboys -700
Spread: Commanders +12.5 (-110), Cowboys-12.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 48.5 points

NFL Schedule Thanksgiving – Game info - Washington at Cowboys

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Washington Commanders (4-7, 3-3 Away) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-3, 4-0 Home)
 Date: Thursday, Nov. 23
 Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
 Venue: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
 TV Channel: CBS
 Live Stream: Paramount+
 Live Radio: WBIG-FM (Washington) and 105.3 The Fan (Dallas)

You know the NFL season is heading down the stretch when snow starts to fall and turkeys are in the oven. While it's a bittersweet feeling -- since football fans already know they will be facing all those 2024 summer months without football – being able to watch games on Thanksgiving Day with family and friends is a nearly unbeatable feeling. This is the only moment in the NFL season that the league provides us with multiple games on a Thursday. So, without further ado, let's jump in and break down Thanksgiving’s late-afternoon matchup between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys.

Commanders at Cowboys Preview - NFL Thanksgiving Games 2023 

Just a few days after a Super Bowl rematch, the NFL is giving fans another treat by staging one of football’s longest-standing rivalry games on Thanksgiving Day. NFC East showdowns between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys have always provided great entertainment, and these two teams will go at it again Thursday on national television. The Commanders and Cowboys have faced each other 126 times in their history, and the Cowboys hold the head-to-head edge at 76-48-2. While stats and nostalgia are always nice, the only thing that matters right now is which team will win this 127th matchup.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Predictions and Picks

The Dallas Cowboys are by far the superior team in this matchup and are literally better at every single position when compared to the Washington Commanders this season. While Washington was competitive in both of its matchups with the current NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles, things will not be competitive in this game. Simply put, the Dallas Cowboys will take care of business on Thursday. The Commanders are awful on defense -- allowing NFL opponents the league’s fourth-most total yards, third-most passing yards, and most points per game. While Washington is an NFL middle-of-the-pack team in terms of scoring points, that ranking won’t matter against a Cowboys defense that allows opposing offenses the league’s fifth-fewest points per game this season. The Cowboys have played four times at home this year and have won all four games by an average margin of 27.5 points. In truth, it wouldn’t even matter if this game were being played in Washington or my own backyard, because the Dallas Cowboys would still win by at least two touchdowns.

The Pick: Dallas Cowboys -12.5 (-110)

When an NFL game is expected to end in a blowout, it’s always hard to make an over/under prediction on the total points. For what it's worth, the over has hit three times in Dallas’ first four home games this season, and the Cowboys hit the total all by themselves in one of those games -- when they scored 49 points against the New York Giants to exceed the projected game total by 10. This Cowboys defense is really good, and this Commanders offense is really bad, but when it comes to scoring points, the Cowboys also get help from their defense. Entering Week 12, no other NFL team has scored as many points off turnovers and safeties as the Dallas Cowboys. As a result, Vegas oddsmakers have slightly accounted for this phenomenon, and because of that I think this total is a smidge too high. I’d certainly play the Cowboys’ individual team total in this game, but I’d lean toward the game’s under in this one.

The Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)

Best NFL Player-Prop Bets for Commanders vs. Cowboys: Thanksgiving Day Football Week 12

Dak Prescott

It’s Turkey Day and the Dallas Cowboys are playing in front of a home crowd that has seen them go a perfect 4-0 at AT&T Stadium this season. In all four of those wins, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown for at least 255 yards and at least one touchdown. Prescott also threw for four touchdowns in each of his last two home games. He had 304 passing yards against the Rams on Oct. 29 and 404 yards against the Giants on Nov. 12. He is about to face a dreadful Washington Commanders defense with a secondary that’s non-existent as far as defending against the pass. The Commanders allow the third-most passing yards to opposing NFL teams this season, and Prescott is going to feast on them. My best player prop for this Thanksgiving matchup is Prescott going over his passing-yardage line. A 300-yard -- or and maybe even a 400-yard -- passing game is definitely on the horizon in Arlington.

The Pick: Dak Prescott over 265.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Best Same-Game Parlay Week 12 bets today for Commanders vs. Cowboys: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+500)

Passing TDs This is going to be a full-on Dallas Cowboys same-game parlay, because I see nothing other than the Cowboys routing the Washington Commanders on Thursday. Dallas is unquestionably the superior team here. While Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott could throw for as many as four touchdowns because the Commanders secondary is so bad, we’re going to play it safe and go with Prescott passing for at least three touchdowns on Thursday.

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Dak Prescott 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+145)

Passing Yards As long as I’m doing an all-Dallas Cowboys same-game parlay, it only makes sense to put the emphasis on Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. As mentioned here earlier, the Commanders’ secondary is awful, and Prescott will have a field day against it on Thursday. He is coming off two 300-yard passing performances in his last two home starts and also carved up the Eagles with 374 passing yards between those two games. Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is out to show the NFL that he’s the best at his position in the league, while tight end Jake Fergurson and wide receiver Brandin Cooks are constantly improving their chemistry with Prescott.

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Dak Prescott 300+ Passing Yards (+135)

Cowboys Total Points Scored This game is going to get ugly, and I apologize to any Washington Commanders fans for the predictions I have to make here. The Dallas Cowboys will show out in front of their home crowd. They will not take this Commanders team lightly, but Dallas will have its foot on the gas from start to finish. As a result, the Cowboys will score a lot of points. Give me the Cowboys’ adjusted team total to close out this parlay, because I see Dallas scoring 35 or more points on Thursday. This team has exceeded 35 points in three of its four previous home games this season.

Leg-3 SGP Pick: Cowboys Total Points over 34.5 (+165)

Odds are subject to change* 

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