Black Friday picks: Dolphins vs Jets Predictions, Props and SGP (+900)
Alex Buck makes his Black Friday Football picks and predictions for the Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets game in Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season. Plus, tips on props and SGPs.
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NFL Schedule Week 12 – Game info - Black Friday NFL Game
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Miami Dolphins (7-3) vs. New York Jets (4-6)
Date: Friday, Nov. 24
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, N.J.
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Live Stream: FuboTV
For the first time in league history, the NFL will feature a Black Friday matchup this year, as the Miami Dolphins head north to face a divisional rival in the New York Jets.
Miami is looking to pull away as AFC East division leaders, while the Jets are hoping to keep their postseason hopes alive ahead of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ eagerly-anticipated potential return.
This game has major implications for both teams. A Miami win would push the Jets to 4-7 – leaving them a long way off from a playoff spot -- while a New York win would bunch the top three three AFC East teams even closer together as the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets would all be battling for playoff berths.
Dolphins vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 12
Moneyline: Miami Dolphins -475, New York Jets +330
Spread: Dolphins -9.5 (-110), Jets +9.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 41.5 points
Dolphins at Jets Preview - NFL Black Friday Game
The Miami Dolphins returned from their bye week with a 20-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday and now visit East Rutherford, N.J., to face a wounded New York Jets team on Black Friday.
Even though their performance against Las Vegas was hardly a perfect game for the Dolphins, they still came away with the win. That put them a full game clear of the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East with a game in hand.
Fans would consider last Sunday an “off day” for the Miami offense. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed a couple of throws, and the running game wasn’t as explosive as the Dolphins would have liked it to be. Jaylen Waddle’s usage as a decoy for fellow wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been questioned, and rookie running back De’Von Achane returned from IR only to limp off the field after his first carry.
If an “off day” for the Miami offense involves Tagovailoa throwing for 325 passing yards and two touchdowns, with just one interception, then the Dolphins are going to be tough to beat on Friday.
Tagovailoa fumbled early in the game while scrambling for a first down, and Miami might have gotten away with one, because the game went all the way down to the final play.
Hill was superb once again despite suffering a hand injury. He caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t just about the offense against Las Vegas, because in this game, the Dolphins made another statement by continuing to jell as a unit under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey had two interceptions on Sunday. The first was a diving pick as he undercut a Raiders receiver over the middle, and the second was a high-flying leap to ice the game in the end zone on an attempted deep ball to Davante Adams.
Fangio’s defense hasn’t allowed a single second-half point in its last two games -- shutting out both the Chiefs and the Raiders. If this defense can continue to play at that level as we reach the final weeks of the regular season, Miami could be a real problem for the rest of the league.
Meanwhile, the key now for the Jets is survival, since the team hopes that quarterback Aaron Rodgers can make it back for the final stretch of the season. He is currently expected to be back in action in late December, but for that to make a difference, the Jets would need to remain in playoff contention.
New York’s current 4-6 record makes the playoffs seem like a tall order, especially now that two teams are ahead of the Jets in their division. A Black Friday loss to Miami would knock that record down to 4-7, and despite the Jets’ advantage of a seemingly elite defense, one has to wonder if the playoffs would be too much to ask of a struggling team.
Besieged quarterback Zach Wilson was finally benched in favor of Tim Boyle, who will start on Friday in place of the former No. 2 overall draft pick.
Wilson struggled again last weekend in throwing for just 81 yards against Buffalo. Not only was he benched, but he was then dropped to the third-string quarterback role behind Boyle and journeyman Trevor Siemian.
Boyle will have his work cut out for him against this Miami Dolphins defense, particularly since its pass rushers and corners are currently playing at an elite level. Ramsey has proven that he will punish an opponent’s mistakes -- picking up three interceptions in three games since returning from injury to make his Dolphins debut.
Perhaps Boyle can make better use of the Jets’ excellent cast of offensive weapons. Zach Wilson has been largely unable to do so, but wide receiver Garrett Wilson is still a born playmaker who has often made his quarterback look good regardless of circumstance.
The Jets will need their defense to be at its very best on Friday. Miami has the No. 1-ranked offense in the NFL, scoring 30.5 points per game and averaging 434 yards of offense since the season began. The Jets’ defense is a top-five unit -- allowing fewer than 180 passing yards per game. New York has struggled a little to avoid giving up points in recent weeks, but it still ranks in the upper half of NFL teams when it comes to points allowed.
Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions and Pick
While Miami’s offense has been one of the highlights of the 2023 season, the Dolphins have slowed down a little in recent weeks. They have scored 17 or fewer points in three of the last four games and failed to cover the spread in each of those games as a result.
After a 5-1 start against the spread in the first six weeks of the season, the Dolphins are now 6-4. They were 14-point favorites against the Raiders, and while they won the game, it was a little closer than they would have wanted it to be.
Miami has its concerns, but this Jets defense is also struggling to hold up as well as it did earlier in the year. New York allowed 32 points to quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last Sunday – just two weeks after giving up 27 to QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The Jets have also failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
Looking at the Jets’ results against good offenses, I think Miami clears the spread in this one. The Chargers beat the Jets 27-6, and that Los Angeles defense is nowhere near Miami’s level. Also, just last week, the Jets scored only six points against the Bills.
The Pick: Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
The over/under will depend on whether Miami can avoid turnovers. If the Dolphins are in their top scoring form, then reaching at least 30 points shouldn’t be a problem. However, the Jets would still likely need a touchdown of their own for this game to reach the over.
I’m going to back the under here, expecting to see Miami land somewhere around the 23-27 point range and the Jets to score no more than 10 points.
The Pick: Under 41.5 Points (-120)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets: Dolphins vs. Jets
Jets running back Breece Hall hasn’t managed more than 50 rushing yards since Week 5, and despite the struggles of the offense, his carries-per-game are actually coming down. Hall broke 60 rushing yards twice this season -- both times going over 100 – and getting 22 carries the second time on Oct. 8 at Denver.
Since that Week 5 game against the Broncos, Hall has maxed out at 16 carries, averaging just shy of 13. Regardless, the yards just aren’t there.
Miami’s defense has become much better at the line of scrimmage. Linebacker Bradley Chubb has really started to show his worth after a slow start in Miami, and the Dolphins are absolutely going to key on the run to force Jets QB Tim Boyle into unfriendly downs and distances -- as teams have done in recent weeks against Zach Wilson.
Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill made it clear that the injury to his hand wasn’t going to be an issue, especially considering that he taped it up and went back out on the field to pick up another 70 odd yards against Las Vegas on Sunday.
Hill’s line for this weekend is set at 77.5 yards -- a little lower than I’d expect to see – which is perhaps the oddsmakers’ way of showing respect for the Jets’ secondary.
Sure, New York has some great players back there, and I don’t doubt that they can be disruptive, but holding Tyreek Hill to fewer than 80 yards is a very tough task. Only one team has done that in the Dolphins’ last six games, and it just happened to be Hill’s former Kansas City Chiefs team during a game played in Germany.
Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Dolphins vs. Jets Week 12: 4-Leg Parlay Pick (+900)
Leg-1: Under 41.5 Points (-120)
Leg-2: Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Leg-4: Breece Hall Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-140)
Odds are subject to change*
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