TNF picks: 49ers vs Seahawks Predictions, Props and SGP (+255)
Alex Buck makes his Thanksgiving picks and predictions for 49ers at Seahawks in Week 12 of the NFL 2023 season.
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49ers vs. Seahawks Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 12
Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -350, Seattle Seahawks +275
Spread: 49ers -7.5 (+100), Seahawks +7.5 (-130)
Total: Over/Under 43.5 points
NFL Schedule Week 12 – Game Info - Thanksgiving Day NFL Games
2023 Thanksgiving NFL Game
San Francisco 49ers (7-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Date: Thursday Nov. 23
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Lumen Field, in Seattle, Wash.
TV Channel: NBC
Live Stream: FuboTV
The final matchup of the NFL’s 2023 Thanksgiving Day slate takes place in the Pacific Northwest, where the Seattle Seahawks will play host to a division rival in the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners began the season as comfortable favorites for the NFC West title, but a three-game stumble in October has left them holding just a one-game lead over the Seahawks going into this crucial Thursday night showdown.
Although the standings remain close, the 49ers’ comfortable victories over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay in the past two weeks have put San Francisco back on track in its quest for the team’s first Lombardi Trophy since winning Super Bowl XXIX in 1995. Seattle is rarely an easy place for the Niners to play, and they have won only twice there since 2011. One of those wins was last year’s division-clinching 21-13 victory in Week 15.
For head coach Pete Carroll’s Seahawks, this game offers a chance to show that they can compete with the 49ers for NFC West supremacy. The two teams face each other twice in the next three weeks – with a Dec. 10 game scheduled in San Francisco -- and Seattle will look to prove it can win the division crown by beating the team most likely to prevent that from happening.
49ers at Seahawks Preview - NFL Thanksgiving Games 2023
Over the past two weeks, the 49ers have reminded everyone just how good they can be. Three straight losses to Cleveland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati in Weeks 6, 7, and 8 prompted some 49ers fans to overreact with concern about a team that had won 15 straight regular-season games prior to that slide.
The last two games have been a return to normalcy in San Francisco, as head coach Kyle Shanahan’s players steamrolled over the much-hyped Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 before a 27-14 victory over Tampa Bay in which the Niners never looked to be in any real danger. Quarterback Brock Purdy put together a perfect passer rating against the Bucs in Florida last Sunday, which was only the second perfect rating by an NFL quarterback this season. Purdy reminded everyone of his capabilities in throwing for 333 yards and three touchdowns.
San Francisco wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk finished the Tampa Bay game with 156 receiving yards and leads the team with 831 on the season. Purdy’s detractors have argued that any NFL quarterback could succeed in his situation, and while that’s definitely an exaggeration, Purdy does have an all-star cast surrounding him every week. In addition to Aiyuk, there are tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel and, of course, league rushing leader Christian McCaffrey. Each one of those players would be the main offensive standout for several other NFL teams.
This firepower, combined with Purdy’s impressive poise and Shanahan’s knack for assembling a great offense, has the 49ers ranked third in the league in scoring at just under 28 points per game. Incredibly, the defense is even better on the statistical front – ranking No. 1 in the NFL after allowing only 157 total points over the season’s first 10 games.
Niners defensive end Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, and company have done an exceptional job keeping opposing NFL offenses quiet. That’s particularly true on the ground, where San Francisco has allowed opponents a total of just 814 rushing yards this season. Only fellow NFC juggernaut Philadelphia has yielded fewer.
Getting their run game going will be a real challenge for the Seahawks on Thursday, but it’s one they might have to face head-on if they hope to win this game. Now in his second year in the league, Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III has become a key component of the Seahawks’ offense in collecting nearly 800 yards from scrimmage so far this season.
Unfortunately, Walker went down with an oblique injury in Sunday’s 17-16 loss to the Rams, and his status is now in doubt for this game. That means Seattle might need to turn to rookie Zach Charbonnet as its No. 1 back.
The rushing attack has been pivotal for Seattle this year, as the Seahawks are 5-0 when they record at least 100 yards on the ground, but just 1-4 when they don’t. Nevertheless, the Seahawks do possess weapons in their passing game if either Walker or Charbonnet struggles to get through the 49ers’ run defense.
Seattle ranks in the middle of the NFL pack when it comes to passing yardage, but the Seahawks still possess one of the league’s more exciting wide receivers in DK Metcalf. The fifth-year starter out of Ole Miss is on course for another 1,000-yard season, and so far he and veteran receiver Tyler Lockett have been QB Geno Smith’s favored targets. In addition, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba is working his way into a bigger role as the season progresses, and he has seen consistent targets out of the slot in recent weeks.
49ers vs. Seahawks Predictions and Pick
The past two weeks have showcased the very best of this 49ers team, which has demonstrated exactly why it has been picked by many observers throughout the league to win the Super Bowl. However, while they can be electrifying when everything is clicking for them, the 49ers have shown that they are not totally invincible, Indeed, San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is still prone to having off-days, such as the one he endured in Cleveland earlier this year.
For Seattle to have a chance in this one, the Seahawks will need to get to Purdy early and often. They have been reasonably good at doing that to opposing QBs this year and rank 10th in the league in sacks. Given the cauldron-like atmosphere they will enjoy as the home team at Lumen Field, expect the Seahawks to be in this game under the Thursday Night lights.
The Niners are favorites for a reason, but seven points is a sizable spread, particularly when considering Seattle’s home-field advantage. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover in this one.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks +7.5 (-130)
Given both teams’ impressive offensive talent, most observers watching this game on NBC will be hoping for plenty of points to close out Thanksgiving Day. Seattle’s defense has been reasonably good this year, but it was exposed badly in a Nov. 5 loss at Baltimore, when head coach Pete Carroll’s team gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground alone.
While no-one is predicting the 49ers to have a day quite like what the Ravens had, four quarters of Christian McCaffrey pounding the football -- combined with the receiving trio of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk -- is a recipe for points against any defense in football.
Let’s also not forget that Seattle will have the playmaking ability of receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as well as running back Kenneth Walker, and that San Francisco’s defense has lost safety Talanoa Hufanga for the year. Expect at least 44 points here.
The Pick: Over 43.5 Points (-120)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets for 49ers vs Seahawks Thanksgiving Game
Carrying on with our theme of a big rushing day for San Francisco, expect fireworks from league MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey. Although the Niners’ star recently missed out on the NFL record for consecutive games with a TD -- despite the best efforts of his teammates -- he is obviously still one of the league’s elite running backs and offensive weapons.
McCaffrey leads the league with 14 touchdowns and will give Seattle head coach Pete Carroll sleepless nights this week as he hunts for more. I’m going for McCaffrey to find the end zone twice as he continues his quest to be the first non-QB MVP since 2012.
Finally, expect the Seahawks to make a point of exploiting the gap left by injured Talanoa Hufanga in the 49ers’ secondary. Seattle receiver DK Metcalf obviously has the big-play ability to impact any game, and the Seahawks might dial his number once or twice on deeper plays in this one.
Metcalf is a constant threat when it comes to short and medium routes, and he has managed to break 60 receiving yards in six of his nine games this year. Add in the threat of a few deep shots, and Metcalf should be able to clear that number again on Thursday night.
The Pick: D. K. Metcalf Over 59.5 yards (-125)
Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for 49ers vs. Seahawks: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+255)
Leg 1: Over 43.0 Points (-120)
Leg 2: Seattle Seahawks +7 (-110)
Odds are subject to change*
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