TNF picks: Packers vs Lions Predictions, Props and SGP (+650)
Alex Buck makes his Thanksgiving picks and predictions for Packers at Lions in Week 12 of the NFL 2023 season.
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Packers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 12
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers +290, Detroit Lions -350
Spread: Packers +7.5 (-110), Lions -7.5 (-105)
Total: Over/Under 46.5 points
NFL Schedule Week 12 – Game Info - NFL Thanksgiving Games 2023
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Green Bay Packers (4-6) vs. Detroit Lions (8-2)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 23
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Ford Field, in Detroit, Mich.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: FuboTV
The first game in the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day tripleheader will be played – as always – in Detroit, where the Lions take on their longtime rivals, the Green Bay Packers. In many past seasons, the Lions were the whipping boy of the NFC North, but this year has been a completely different story.
Head coach Dan Campbell’s Lions appear almost certain to win the division for the first time since the old NFC Central days back in 1993. Detroit is now 8-2 and looks primed for a potentially deep playoff run. The same cannot be said for the Packers, who sit at 4-6, two games behind the Vikings for the NFC’s final wild-card playoff berth.
Green Bay did, however, pick up an impressive victory over the Los Angeles Chargers at home last Sunday, and the Packers will be looking to at least give their upstart division rivals a bloody nose in this one.
Packers at Lions Preview - Thanksgiving NFL Games 2023
As I have already noted, Detroit Lions fans find themselves in completely unfamiliar territory in 2023, having already seen their team record eight victories, including a Week 4 win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. After years of being on the wrong side of this rivalry, the Lions have now won each of their last four games against Green Bay, and they will be expecting to make it five on Thursday afternoon.
Last Sunday, however, was not a vintage performance by this Lions team. Playing at home, Detroit struggled to get past the Chicago Bears, one of the worst teams in pro football this season. Lions QB Jared Goff had his poorest 2023 showing, throwing three interceptions and ending the day with a passer rating of just 68.3.
The Lions trailed the Bears 26-14 with just 4:15 remaining in the fourth quarter on Sunday. However, Detroit showed its ability to battle back from a deficit. Goff’s 32-yard bomb to wide receiver Jameson Williams was followed by running back David Montgomery’s goal-line TD with 29 seconds remaining. That gave the Lions an improbable win, as this Detroit team kept rolling.
Detroit’s offense has been one of the best in the league this year, continuing where it left off last season. The Lions have almost 4,000 yards of total offense through 10 games and rank sixth in the NFL in both passing and rushing yardage.
The passing attack is sparked by wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. He appears on track to easily exceed the 1,161 receiving yards he racked up last season, having already compiled 898 this year. St. Brown is a constant threat for Detroit and has already topped 100 receiving yards in six games this season, helping him surge to the league’s fifth-highest individual receiving-yardage total.
Detroit’s offense has also been boosted significantly by the emergence of rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs. He had big shoes to fill at Ford Field following the departure of both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, but he has recently shown that he is more than up to the task. His 189 total-yardage performance against the Las Vegas Raiders on Oct. 30 was a real highlight, and he’s looking like a nightmare for defensive coordinators tasked with the role of stopping him..
The Lions’ Thanksgiving opponent, Green Bay, has specifically struggled against the run this year as the league’s seventh-worst team when it comes to rushing yards allowed (nearly 135 per game). This should be one of the key areas that decides Thursday’s outcome, since Detroit’s two-pronged attack of Montgomery and Gibbs could be primed to make life miserable for Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay is still a work in progress. Quarterback Jordan Love’s first season as an NFL starter has been difficult at times, and he ranks only 22nd in QBR for the season -- sandwiched between Washington’s Sam Howell and Chicago’s Justin Fields. Love doesn’t exactly have an elite receiving corps at his disposal, and none of his receivers are over age 25.
As a result, the Packers’ passing attack ranks in the bottom half of the NFL, and Jayden Reed leads the team’s receivers with just 463 yards on the year.
Love had a rough night the last time these teams met on Sept. 28 at Green Bay. He threw two interceptions in that game, which the Lions wrapped up early en route to a 34-20 win. The game was hardly competitive for most of its 60 minutes, and Packers fans will certainly be hoping for a different outcome this time around.
Packers vs. Lions Prediction and Pick
The Lions truly are one of the league’s elite teams right now and enter this matchup as comfortable 7.5-point favorites. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell’s players are reliable on offense, having put up at least 20 points in nine of 10 games this season. The Lions also know what it takes to beat these Packers, since they already did it in September with an almost even split of passing and rushing yards.
If Detroit can establish the run early in this one, it's hard to look past the likelihood of a Lions victory. With running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both at the top of their games right now, the Lions look well-positioned for another win. If they can take an early lead, it's hard to see the Packers having enough firepower to come from behind.
Expect an impressive statement win from the Lions here as they look to improve on their all-time 12-8-1 Thanksgiving Day record against Green Bay.
The Pick: Detroit Lions –7.5 (-105)
The Lions have been in several high-scoring games this year, as matchups against the Panthers, Chargers, and Seahawks all totaled at least 66 points. I don’t necessarily see this game reaching that level, but when this Detroit’s offense clicks, anything is possible.
If this one follows the pattern of the Week 4 game in Green Bay, we could see the Lions race to a comfortable lead before the Packers pick up a few points in garbage time to put us over the total. Fans will be hoping for a high-scoring affair to kick off the Thanksgiving schedule, and I think a combined 47 points is more than achievable for these two teams.
The Pick: Over 47.0 points (-105)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets for Packers vs. Lions for Thanksgiving Sam LaPorta
One of the real surprises for Detroit this year has been rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. The Iowa alumnus has hit the ground running in his first year in the big leagues and is already a key part of the Lions offense. He’s also one of QB Jared Goff’s favorite targets.
LaPorta has proven himself to be a solid option in both short- and long-yardage situations this season, and three of his four touchdowns were plays that gained more than 15 yards. With wide receivers Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown expecting plenty of attention in the red zone, don't be surprised if Goff dials LaPorta’s number at some point on Thursday.
In Week 4, Lions running back David Montgomery had his best showing of the season at Green Bay’s Lambeau Field, rushing for 121 yards and three touchdowns. Over his last three games against Green Bay – including during his time with the Chicago Bears – Montgomery has averaged over 100 yards on the ground and been a constant thorn in the Packers’ side.
Expect Detroit to try establishing the run early here to expose the Packers’ weakness on that front. While Jahmyr Gibbs is sure to be involved, Montgomery is still the reliable RB1, and if it isn’t broken, don’t expect the Lions to fix it.
Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Packers vs. Lions Week 12: 4-Leg Parlay Pick (+650)
Leg-1 SGP: Over 47.0 points (-105)
Leg-2 SGP: Detroit Lions – 7.5 (-105)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Leg-4 SGP: Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Odds are subject to change*
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