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Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 11

Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers +105, Cleveland Browns -130
Spread: Steelers +1.5 (-110), Browns -1.5 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 33.5 points

NFL Schedule Week 11 – Game info - Steelers at Browns

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Date: Sunday, Nov. 19
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: FuboTV

Heading into the 2023 NFL season, who would have thought that the AFC North would be so tight this year? The Bengals' shocking loss to Houston last weekend dropped Cincinnati into last place at 5-4. They then slipped to 5-5 after losing to the 8-3 Baltimore Ravens in this week’s Thursday night game. Had Cincinnati won on Thursday night, Sunday’s upcoming game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns would have been guaranteed to produce a co-division leader. Even though Baltimore will now remain in first regardless of this result, there is definitely still a lot on the line in this game

The Steelers and Browns are currently tied for second place behind Baltimore in the AFC North. Both teams have a 6-3 record and playoff ambitions. With barely a whisker between all four of this division’s teams, every win is crucial, and no wins are more crucial than those achieved within the division. 

A win by either team could propel it into a share of first place, but a loss could drop it into third, just one game ahead of the Bengals. The Steelers came out on top the first time these two teams met this year. Can they complete a clean sweep and improve their playoff chances?

Steelers at Browns Preview

This game promises to be a battle of defensive power. This is not a situation where we look to the quarterbacks as the X-factors. Instead, we train our eyes toward the defensive side of the ball, where two Defensive Player of the Year candidates lead the way.

Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has had at least one sack in each of his last four games, bringing him up to 11 on the season. Meanwhile, over in Pittsburgh, T.J. Watt is snapping at Garrett’s heels with 10.5 sacks of his own. In a game that will feature Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett and Cleveland rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the most likely game-decider will be one of these two giant defensive ends.

Cleveland’s defense is the best in the league when it comes to points conceded per game. They are also giving up just 161 yards per game in their own building, which suggests that Pickett could be in for a rough afternoon. The Browns have made four interceptions over the last two weeks and are giving up a league-low 55 percent completion rate to opposing QBs. That number dips to 52 percent when Cleveland plays at home. 

It goes without saying that this is going to be a very tricky day for Pickett. He is completing just 61.7 percent of his passes this season, having thrown for six touchdowns against four interceptions. He has only thrown for one touchdown over his last four games, and this matchup doesn’t feel like a great setting for him to make a big leap forward.

As a result, the Steelers will likely rely on their dynamic 1-2 punch at running back to move the ball. RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren led the team to its victory over Green Bay last week. They combined to run the ball 31 times -- with both players averaging more than five yards per carry and scoring a touchdown. Since the Browns are currently tied for fourth in the NFL in sacks this year, a ground-and-pound approach looks especially appealing for Pittsburgh. The duo ran for a total of 183 yards last week to get the win, and there should be a similar blueprint for success this week.

We can expect a similar situation whenever Cleveland is on offense in this game. Even before their $230 million quarterback, Deshaun Watson, got hurt, the Browns had already recorded the second-most rush attempts of any NFL team. They had good reason for that, because their offensive line is excellent, helping them rush for an average of 147.9 yards per game, which ties Cleveland with Miami for second in the league. The Browns will be going up against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks only 25th when it comes to rushing yards allowed per game.

Pittsburgh’s defensive struggles against the run bode well for Cleveland, which also has a 1-2 punch coming out of the backfield. Jerome Ford took over the starting role after Nick Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury when these teams met on Sept. 18. Ford finished that game with 106 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown. He went on to register a new season-best 107 rushing yards just last week against Baltimore. An explosive and powerful runner, Ford does most of the heavy lifting between the 20-yard-lines. Fellow running back Kareem Hunt then takes on the short-yardage role in the red zone, and he has punched in at least one touchdown in each of his last five games.

With Watson now out for the season, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) will make his second career start at quarterback. It has been a baptism of fire for DTR, who threw three interceptions in his debut against Baltimore and now must go up against a Steelers team that features Watt on its defensive line and a secondary that allows the league’s second-lowest completion percentage to opposing QBs. 

However, this might not be as bad as it looks for the rookie. Despite giving up that second-lowest completion percentage, Pittsburgh is only ranked 27th when it comes to yards conceded per game. The big plays will be there for DTR if he can hit his target. The other bit of good news for Thompson-Robinson is that his targets are all playing well. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is averaging 91 yards per game over his last five starts, and tight end David Njoku has caught passes for a total of 215 yards and two touchdowns over his last four.

Steelers vs. Browns Predictions and Picks

Even though Browns No. 1 quarterback Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, the Steelers will be in a tough spot on the road this week. Cleveland allows only 160 yards per game at home, defensive end Myles Garrett is putting together a stellar season worthy of Defensive Player of the Year honors, and the Browns’ secondary gives up very little. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett has been struggling this year, and I can't see him coming out on top this week.

This looks like an inevitable battle of defenses, and I will give the edge to Cleveland in its own building.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns to win (-130)

This game is begging for an under bet, but our lives are made harder here by an insanely low 33.5-point total. The defensive players will dominate matchups all over the field in this one, which will result in very little offense. The best opportunities are likely to come on the ground, and I expect this game to heavily feature both sets of talented running backs. That will help keep the clock running, which is something we like to see when betting the under.

Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett and the Browns’ Dorian Thompson-Robinson will both be very much out of their depth in this game. Either team surpassing 16 points will be a struggle, so the under is the bet here.

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Under 33.5 (-120)

Best NFL Player-Prop Bets: Steelers vs. Browns

Kenny Pickett

This stands out as an incredible bet. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett has thrown for just 126 and 160 yards in his last two games, which were played against much softer defenses. He now goes up against a Cleveland Browns secondary that allows only 84 passing yards per game when playing at home. Even if you add in their road performances, the Browns are conceding an overall average of just 151 yards per game through the air.

The Steelers relied heavily on their running game to win last week, and I don’t see them changing their plans this week. The opportunity to wager on Pickett being limited to fewer than 180 passing yards is as good as it gets. 

The Pick: Kenny Pickett under 180.5 passing yards (-115)

Jerome Ford

Browns No. 1 quarterback Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, which suggests that Cleveland will depend even more on its running game. Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson showed flashes of talent in the preseason but looked out of his depth in a tough situation when he made his first start against Baltimore in Week 4. Running back Jerome Ford has established himself as the 1A rusher in the Browns’ backfield, and he should find plenty of room to work against this Pittsburgh defense, which concedes 131 rushing yards per game. Ford should have a large number of carries as Cleveland tries to hide Thompson-Robinson and grind out a win. 

The Pick: Jerome Ford over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Steelers vs. Browns Week 11: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+230)

Spread Bet

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Cleveland Browns to win (-130)

Total Points

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Under 33.5 (-120)

Odds are subject to change*  

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