Steelers vs Bengals Predictions, Odds, Picks, Props and SGP (+245)
Alex Buck makes his picks and predictions for Steelers at Bengals in Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Steelers vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 12
Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers -115, Cincinnati Bengals -105
Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-125), Bengals +1.5 (-105)
Total: Over/Under 35.5 points
NFL Schedule Week 12 – Game info - Steelers at Bengals
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
Date: Sunday, Nov. 26
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: FuboTv
Last week was a big week for the AFC North, as all four teams faced a divisional opponent. The two losing teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, now occupy the bottom two spots in the division standings, and an injury to Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has all but ended any Super Bowl hopes for Cincinnati. Now three games behind the first-place Baltimore Ravens and forced to rely on a backup quarterback, the Bengals have little cause for optimism.
The Steelers, who are two games behind the Ravens, still cling to an AFC playoff spot 10 games into their season. Pittsburgh will visit Cincinnati on Sunday, and Burrow’s absence has suddenly created a massive opportunity for the Steelers to secure a much-needed win that will keep them in contention for the postseason. A strong defense has been the key to victory for the Steelers, who nearly rode that strength to a win in their 13-10 loss at Cleveland last weekend.
Steelers at Bengals Preview
Early-season losses have come back to bite the Cincinnati Bengals, who have a mountain to climb if they hope to make the playoffs. Jake Browning takes over as the team’s quarterback now that Joe Burrow has been sidelined for the remainder of the year with a wrist injury. Browning has been an NFL practice-squad player since 2019, first with the Vikings and then with the Bengals. He beat out Trevor Siemian to win Cincinnati’s backup role entering the 2023 season, but it’s fair to say that he won’t be filling Bengals fans with a huge amount of hope.
Browning was steady in relief of Burrow last week, completing eight of 14 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. The offense struggled without Burrow at the helm, however, and Sunday’s upcoming divisional matchup with the Steelers does not bode well for Browning.
The Steelers have held their last six opponents under 21 points, and linebacker T.J. Watt has been a big reason why. Watt’s 11.5 sacks are third in the league, and he is also tied for second in QB hits. He could be the most important player on the field this weekend when he goes up against a Bengals offensive line that struggles to put good games together.
The Cleveland Browns are a run-first team, but Pittsburgh held them to just 3.3 yards per carry last week. Another such outing against the run would go a long way toward a victory for the Steelers. Stuffing Bengals running back Joe Mixon at the line would force more weight onto Browning’s shoulders, which sounds to me like a recipe for success. Browning has only attempted 15 passes in his entire NFL career – a stat that won’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of Pittsburgh’s defensive backs.
Since this game looks to be a defensive tussle, having DE Sam Hubbard healthy and back in the lineup will be important for Cincinnati. The Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson has the ability to wreck a game from the other defensive end position, but Hubbard’s presence will free up more space for Hendrickson, who has 9.5 sacks this year but will feel even more pressure to produce now that his team’s star quarterback is gone.
Hendrickson will be hunting down Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who had just 106 passing yards last week. Pickett has been wayward with his passes, forcing the offense to take a conservative approach. That approach could look different moving forward, however, now that former offensive coordinator Matt Canada has been fired. Canada was replaced by running backs coach Eddie Faulkner, and quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan is now calling the plays.
Faulkner’s promotion could trigger a change in Pittsburgh’s running game. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have been splitting carries for much of the year, but Warren’s 129 yards and TD on just nine carries last Sunday at Cleveland might earn him some additional work in Cincinnati. He is clearly the more explosive back and should have a big role to play.
The Bengals are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season, which is the second-worst mark in the entire NFL. The running game should therefore feature heavily in Pittsburgh’s plan, and with Browning on the other side of the ball, I don’t imagine we will see too many pass attempts from the Bengals either. Expect the defenses and running games to dominate in what should be a gritty divisional showdown.
Steelers vs Bengals Predictions and Picks
In a game where I expect the defenses to come out on top, Pittsburgh linebacker T.J. Watt stands out as the most likely difference-maker on the field. His 11.5 sacks rank third in the NFL, and he has also contributed an interception and two forced-fumbles. Watt can do it all and will have to like his chances against this offensive line.
Bengals quarterback Jake Browning has attempted just 15 passes in his NFL career. He now has to face a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has held its last six opponents under 21 points. I don’t see how the Bengals emerge from this game with a win.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-125)
These defenses are two capable units taking the field against one another on Sunday, which makes this under the bet for me. Bengals QB Jake Browning might benefit from a talented pass-catching group that features Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, but Browning has barely set foot on an NFL field, and I don’t like his chances.
As far as Pittsburgh goes, quarterback Kenny Pickett boasts a stat line of just six touchdowns and four interceptions this year. Sunday’s game should therefore be dominated by the running backs, which will keep the clock ticking and the scores low. I will be betting on the under in this one.
The Pick: Steelers vs Bengals under 35.5 (-115)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets: Steelers vs. Bengals
I am hoping that Steelers running back Jaylen Warren will be the biggest beneficiary of his team’s coaching shuffle. Matt Canada is out as offensive coordinator, replaced by former running backs coach Eddie Faulkner. Warren is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season, and the Bengals give up the league’s second-highest yardage total per carry at 4.6.
The Steelers' offense has been difficult to watch, but Warren provides a spark that Pittsburgh doesn’t get from its passing game. He gives his team the best chance to win, and I expect his workload to increase moving forward.
This game is there for the Steelers to win. Cincinnati star QB Joe Burrow is out for the season, and the Steelers have the edge on defense, so avoiding mistakes is the most important key to this game for Pittsburgh. The most likely source of a mistake would be quarterback Kenny Pickett, whose QB rating has been under 41 in each of his last four games. He now goes up against a Bengals secondary that is tied for the NFL’s second-most interceptions with 12.
Add in the fact that the Bengals can be sliced up on the ground, and you have a clear recipe to hide Pickett behind his running-back duo. Baltimore ran for 5.1 yards per carry in its victory over Cincinnati last week, so Pittsburgh should follow a similar blueprint this week.
Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Steelers vs. Bengals Week 12: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+245)
Leg 2: Steelers vs Bengals under 35.5 (-115)
Odds are subject to change*
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