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Browns vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 12

Moneyline: Cleveland Browns +115, Denver Broncos -135
Spread: Browns +2.5 (-110), Broncos -2.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 35.5 points

NFL Schedule Week 12 – Game info - Browns at Broncos

2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Cleveland Browns (7-3) vs. Denver Broncos (5-5)
Date: Sunday, Nov. 26
Time: 4:05pm ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: FuboTV

This might come as a surprise to some people, but the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos enter their matchup on Sunday as two of the hottest teams in the NFL. Denver is enjoying a nice four-game win streak that includes shock victories over Buffalo and Kansas City. Cleveland, meanwhile, rides a three-game winning streak into this one, as the red-hot Browns have toppled both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in their last two games.

The AFC playoff picture has not played out the way many expected this year, because teams such as Cincinnati and Buffalo are sitting on the outside more than halfway through the season. This has created a major opportunity for both the Browns and Broncos to make the postseason. Cleveland currently holds the fifth AFC spot, and Denver is just one game out of the wild-card race. Of course, there are several other teams in the hunt, which makes this game that much more important. Which of these two teams will keep its winning streak alive on Sunday as it continues its push for the playoffs?

Browns at Broncos Preview

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson’s season-ending shoulder injury looked like the kiss of death for Cleveland in 2023. However, another dominant defensive performance in a 13-10 home win over Pittsburgh last week has landed the Browns in the fifth playoff spot as well as second place in the AFC North division. Losing Watson was a big blow, but Cleveland’s sidelined quarterback isn’t the reason this team has seven wins on the season. That’s because the Browns’ defense has been the star of the show.

Defensive end Myles Garrett had two sacks in the win over the Steelers, raising him to 13 on the year. He has been a nightmare for opposing offensive lines and is making a very strong case for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. When opposing quarterbacks manage to find space to drop back and pass against Cleveland, a rampant secondary makes life even tougher for them. The Browns’ secondary has held opponents’ QBs to the league’s lowest completion percentage this year and has given up an average of just 98 passing yards over the past three games.

The daunting combination of Garrett up front and the Browns' secondary behind him will likely lead the Denver Broncos to focus on their running game at home on Sunday. Broncos QB Russell Wilson has been much better of late, but head coach Sean Payton has been limiting his pass attempts. Wilson has been efficient and has not thrown an interception in his last four games, which has allowed the Broncos’ running backs to do most of the heavy lifting. That should be the blueprint for success again this week, because the Browns have given up more yards on the ground than through the air over the course of their three-game winning streak.

When it comes to Denver’s running backs, Javonte Williams is the clear leader of the pack. In the two weeks prior to last Sunday’s game against Minnesota, Williams had a total of 48 carries. He should see another big workload this week, with fellow running backs Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin coming in to offer a change of pace and extra burst in the receiving game.

Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is on a five-game touchdown streak, but it will be hard for him to continue that this week. Cleveland’s elite secondary has been putting the clamps on wide receivers, and Denver has given up 32 sacks on the year. The Broncos are tied for NFL’s 26th-worst showing in that category, and it’s a concerning stat on the eve of a game against a team with Myles Garrett on its defensive line. Look for Denver to minimize Wilson’s drop-backs and try and grind out a win via the running game.

It is likely to be a similar story whenever Cleveland has the ball. Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson enjoyed an emotional victory over Pittsburgh last week, but his performance in that game will not concern the Denver defense. He averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt, reflecting the Cleveland coaching staff’s decision to minimize the possibility of potentially catastrophic errors by the rookie.

Denver’s secondary has improved a great deal in recent weeks, but the Broncos’ run defense remains rock-bottom in the NFL. Their 160 rushing yards conceded per game ranks dead last in the league, which should give Cleveland even more motivation to hide their rookie quarterback and pound the rock on Sunday.

This is a dream matchup for Cleveland, since the Browns run the ball more than any other team in the league. They are averaging the NFL’s third-most rushing yards per game with Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt handling most of the carries. Ford is typically used as the early-down back, while Hunt comes in on short-yardage and red-zone situations. If Denver can stop the run, the Broncos will have a good chance to secure a win. However, nothing about the Broncos’ performance in 2023 suggests they will be successful doing that against Cleveland.

Establishing the run will be a key to the game for Cleveland, but Thompson-Robinson won’t be able to hand the ball off on every snap. The Browns will need to make an effort to threaten the Broncos through the air, and trusty tight end David Njoku just might be their best weapon because Denver has given up a whopping 722 yards to the tight end position this year. Denver’s secondary has been improving, so we might see Thompson-Robinson’s targets funneled inside to Njoku. He should have a good game this weekend, and his presence will give Denver's defense additional cause for concern.

Browns vs. Broncos Predictions and Picks

This promises to be a gritty and physical clash between two teams desperate to maintain winning streaks and remain in the thick of the playoff race. The keys to the game will be making plays on defense and establishing the run. On both fronts, I give Cleveland the edge.

Browns defensive end Myles Garrett might be the best defensive player in the NFL. With his ability to wreck any game, he is a force that Denver’s below-average offensive line will struggle to repel. When it comes to running the ball, no team does that more than Cleveland, which gets a dream matchup against Denver’s 32nd-ranked run defense. That fact alone should be enough to secure a victory.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns to win (+100)

It is hard to see where either team’s touchdowns will come from if they can’t be produced by the running game. Cleveland rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt against the Steelers last week, and I can’t see him getting too many opportunities to drop back and throw the ball on Sunday.

At the same time, Denver’s Russell Wilson has been efficient, but he and his receivers are outmatched against Cleveland’s elite defensive line and secondary. This weekend’s game is going to see a lot of running-back action, which leads me toward the under.

The Pick: Browns vs. Broncos Under 35.5 Points (-105)

Best NFL Player-Prop Bets: Browns vs. Broncos

Jerome Ford

Running back Jerome Ford is the Browns’ primary rusher. He cleared the 100-yard mark two weeks ago against Baltimore’s excellent defense, and this week’s game against Denver presents him with a much easier matchup. The Broncos give up 160 rushing yards per game and were gashed by Minnesota’s average rushing attack to the tune of 175 yards last weekend.

Cleveland rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is not a high-level backup, and hiding him will top Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski’s priority list. Ford should see plenty of carries, and in my opinion, a line of 48.5 is way too low for him.

The Pick: Jerome Ford over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

David Njoku

The other Cleveland player with a dream matchup this weekend is tight end David Njoku. The Broncos have given up the most yards by far to the tight end position, and Njoku is fresh off a game where he received 15 targets from Thompson-Robinson. Denver has improved in the secondary, which should make Njoku the focus of Cleveland’s passing attack. He should have no problem getting past the 38.5-yard mark.

The Pick: David Njoku over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Browns vs. Broncos Week 12: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+475)

Spread Bet

Leg 1: Cleveland Browns to win (+100)

Total Points

Leg 2: Browns vs. Broncos Under 35.5 Points (-105)

Receiving Yards

Leg 3: Jerome Ford over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Odds are subject to change*

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