Saints vs Packers Predictions, Odds, Picks, Props and SPGs (+275)
Alex Buck provides his NFL picks and predictions for the New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers game in Week 3 of the 2023 season.
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NFL Schedule Week 3 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Green Bay Packers (1-1) vs New Orleans Saints (2-0)
Date: Sunday, Sept. 24
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Lambeau Field at Green Bay, Wis.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: FuboTV/NFL+
The Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints square off at Lambeau Field this Sunday in the early stage of new eras for both franchises. Each team has started the 2023 season relatively well, with the Saints holding a 2-0 record and the Packers at 1-1. Considering the circumstances, this has been a decent beginning for New Orleans and Green Bay, but there are still areas these teams need to address.
The Packers were narrowly beaten by the Atlanta Falcons last weekend, losing 25-24. Green Bay had a 12-point lead going into the third quarter, but a false start penalty against Packers QB Jordan Love would end up defining the game. A 4th-and-1 situation suddenly turned into a 4th-and-5, which forced the Packers to punt and eventually led to the Falcons’ game-winning field goal.
In a Monday night game, the Saints faced a stubborn Carolina Panthers defense and managed to pull out a 20-17 win. While the Saints have been struggling on offense at times, their defense has made a case for being the best in the NFL -- having held the Panthers to just 253 total yards. New Orleans will be looking to build on its momentum in Green Bay when it goes up against another team with a young, high-profile QB.
Saints vs Packers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 3
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers -130, NO Saints +110
Spread: Green Bay Packers -2.0 (-110), NO Saints +2.0 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 42.5 points (-110)
Saints vs Packers Preview
A Packers-Saints matchup is usually a high-scoring affair. Four of these teams’ last seven meetings resulted in more than 60 total points. Since this is a completely new era for the Packers with Jordan Love at quarterback, it’s hard to say whether history will repeat itself in the form of another high-scoring spectacle. Green Bay did put up 38 points in Week 1 and 24 in Week 2, but Atlanta certainly made the Packers’ life more difficult than the Bears did in the season-opener.
Jordan Love is obviously the talk of the town in Green Bay, and the quarterback has performed much better than many originally anticipated. Through two weeks, he has thrown for 396 yards, six TDs, and no interceptions. So far, he has not disappointed in his starting role with the Packers, especially considering the greatness of the two men who held the job before him.
Love’s success hasn’t been all that surprising. After all, he was a first-round draft pick for a reason. Selected with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Love had been sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons before getting the opportunity to start. Many first-round quarterbacks get thrown straight into the deep end, but Love is showing that biding one’s time while learning from a proven starter might in the long run be a better way for a young QB to start his NFL career.
The Packers have been without second-year receiver Christian Watson for the first two weeks while he recovers from a hamstring injury, and running back Aaron Jones missed last weekend’s game with the same problem. The Packers have been fine without Watson, because receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are proving that they can handle their share of targets in his absence.
Playing without Jones might be more of an issue. His 41 rushing yards, 86 receiving yards, and two total touchdowns in the opening game were sorely missed in Week 2. His backup and backfield partner, A.J. Dillon, has only rushed for 74 yards on 28 carries and has been largely ineffective so far. The Packers will be hoping Jones is healthy and ready to go for Week 3, but if he’s not, Dillon needs to step up his game.
The Saints are many people’s surprise favorites to win the NFC, and their having the second-easiest strength of schedule appears to support the claim. They have started off well under quarterback Derek Carr – with wins in their first two games -- but there’s still room for them to improve.
Carr isn’t quite on the same wavelength as second-year receiver Chris Olave yet. Olave missed some time last season, and if he hadn’t, he might have ended up as the NFL’s Rookie of the Year. In any event, Olave is a stud capable of making huge plays, which was evident in his stunning, ball-juggling catch against the Panthers.
Carr is a good quarterback who likes to fire it downfield. During the offseason, many people felt that a Carr-Olave partnership would be deadly. We’ve seen glimpses of that potential, but so far it seems like they are experiencing growing pains.
It also looks as though head coach Dennis Allen and the Saints are trying to get veteran Michael Thomas more targets. He’s had 17 targets over the last two games. Last year, Olave didn’t have to compete with Thomas for those targets, and the Saints have taken advantage of the new flexibility by targeting Thomas early and often in their first two games.
Unfortunately for New Orleans, running back Jamaal Williams left the team’s Week 2 matchup with a hamstring injury. The Saints are now very thin at that position, with Alvin Kamara still suspended and rookie Kendre Miller yet to play as he comes back from an injury. This weekend could see Tony Jones Jr. carry the bulk of the workload.
Jones punched in two TDs last week, but Taysom Hill led the team in rushing with 75 yards. After barely playing in Week 1, Hill was used effectively to establish the run in Week 2. The Panthers couldn’t stop him, even though they knew what was coming. With the injury to Williams and Kamara not available, one can assume the Saints will go with the combination of Hill and Jones Jr.
Players to watch out for:
A fifth-round pick in this year's draft, wide receiver Wicks broke out last game for 40 yards and a touchdown. He was only targeted four times, but if the Packers are still without Christian Watson, Wicks could establish himself as a key part of this offense.
Last year's first-round pick by the Packers is turning into one of the best linebackers in the NFL. In Week 1, he returned an interception for his first touchdown. In Week 2, he had 17 total tackles, a career-best for the 23-year-old. If the Saints want to establish the run like they did against the Panthers, Walker could be a busy man again.
Saints vs Packers Predictions & NFL Picks Week 3
This is the first home game for the Packers. Considering how well they’ve played on the road, fans could be about to witness something special from Jordan Love and Co. The Saints defense held Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill to 181 yards and Carolina’s Bryce Young to 153 yards, but neither of those QBs are at the top of their game right now, which means Jordan Love has an opportunity to prove himself against one of the best defenses in football.
There’s no doubt that Love will have to battle against the Saints. This will be his toughest game to date, but he has certainly got the tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Beating the Saints would only increase the support he is already getting from Packers fans.
The Saints haven’t quite clicked offensively yet. Quarterback Derek Carr is still getting used to his new team, and the loss of Jamaal Williams has dented the running back corps even further. Williams didn’t do much in terms of stats, but he was reliable and would enable the Saints to establish the run in this game. If they can’t do that, they won’t be able to release their explosive receivers.
The Saints have barely won their last two games, and Green Bay is the home team for this one. I actually prefer Jordan Love over Derek Carr right now, and New Orleans’ lack of healthy running backs this weekend could be a major factor.
I’ll take the Packers to pull out the win and cover at home.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-115)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Saints vs Packers
Through two games, Love is tied for first among NFL quarterbacks with six passing touchdowns. He has a knack for finding the end zone and builds a better rapport with his receivers each week. As mentioned earlier, Doubs and Reed are proving to be reliable options, and each has two touchdowns on the year so far.
Watson and Jones could miss another week, although that is not confirmed, so Love might have to rely on his two young receivers yet again. Tight end Luke Musgrave is also a viable option downfield, so I have Love throwing two or more touchdown passes this weekend.
With Jamaal Williams out, and Kendre Miller potentially still somewhat limited, I expect to see a lot more of Taysom Hill this weekend.
Hill has proven that even when the opposition defense knows what's coming, he can still find paydirt through sheer determination and grit. The quarterback/running back/fullback/tight end is a hard-nosed player who has served the Saints well for years. There’s no doubt the offense will turn to him this weekend, especially in the red zone.
Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Saints vs Packers Week 3: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+275)
Leg 2: Under 42.5 Points (-110)
Odds are subject to change*
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