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An intense AFC rivalry and one of NFL fans’ favorite matchups will take center stage to close out the NFL playoffs’ Divisional Round on Sunday night when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Buffalo Bills. This is a rematch for two teams that faced each other in the 2020 season’s AFC Championship Game and again during the 2021 season’s Divisional Round The Chiefs won both of those games in Kansas City, but this time the Bills get to be the home team. This season’s Bills already beat the Chiefs on the road in Week 14. Will they be able to complete a 2023-24 sweep when it matters most?

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Divisional Round

Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs +125, Buffalo Bills -150
Spread: Chiefs +3 (-120), Bills -3 (+100)
Total: Over/Under 45.5 points 

NFL Schedule Divisional Round– Game info - Chiefs at Bills

2023-24 NFL Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 6-2 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 7-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 21
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: Paramount +
Live Radio: 103.3 FM (Chiefs) and WGR 550 (Bills)

Chiefs at Bills Preview

A Week 14 win at Kansas City was the true turning point for the current Buffalo team. The Bills, coming off a heartbreaking road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, were caught in the toughest part of their schedule. In a three-game span that included their loss to the Eagles, the Bills also had to go to Kansas City to face the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and then return home to play a Dallas Cowboys team that had won eight of its last nine games.

Undaunted, the Bills used their Week 13 bye to re-energize themselves before pulling out a 20-17 win at Kansas City. That victory over the Chiefs was the start of their current six-game winning streak. Buffalo went on to win four remaining regular-season games and secure the AFC’s No. 2 seed. The Bills then routed Pittsburgh in their playoff opener.

The last few weeks have been a different story for the Chiefs, who have struggled on offense largely because their wide receivers keep dropping passes from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. However, we are in the playoffs, so what happened up until this point is irrelevant. The only thing that matters now is what unfolds on Sunday night over the course of four quarters at Highmark Stadium Orchard Park, N.Y.

Chiefs vs. Bills Predictions and Picks 

This statistic should come as no surprise, but Kansas City led the NFL in dropped passes this season.  The Chiefs’ pass-catchers dropped 44 of the 597 passes thrown by quarterback Patrick Mahomes in 2023-24. While this group performed much better in last Saturday’s Wild-Card Round win over the Miami Dolphins, dropped passes were still a problem.

The Buffalo Bills’ offense, on the other hand, really took care of business against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Monday. However, the Bills’ defense did concern me at times in that game. Buffalo allowed Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph to put together a couple of nice drives that ended in touchdowns after the game was all but out of reach.

Defense will be the focus on Sunday night, since both the Chiefs and Bills come into this game with units that rank in NFL’s top five when it comes to fewest points allowed. During the regular season, the Chiefs gave up only 16.7 points per game – the second best mark in the league. The Bills were right behind them at No. 4 – allowing only 18.2 points. These defenses are about to be tested by strong offenses that are surging of late. Kansas City’s pass-catchers are finally starting to get it together, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been playing at an elite level. Indeed, if his team hadn’t struggled in the first half of the season, Allen would likely be the NFL’s MVP.

Although the Bills have impressed me in terms of how they turned things around this season, I am still not sold on them. Yes, this will be Mahomes’ first road playoff game in a hostile stadium, but the Bills still have to show me that they can beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in a postseason matchup.

Don’t forget that if Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney’s right foot was one shoe size smaller, then the Chiefs would have won their Week 14 game against the Bills. Had that happened, Buffalo might not even have reached the playoffs. Bills fans will be quick to remind me that football is a game of inches, and I tend to agree, which is why -- in a game of inches -- I have to go with the Chiefs and the points.  

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (-120)

As was the case in Monday night’s Steelers-Bills game, the Buffalo weather will likely play a role in determining how many points are scored on Sunday. A winter storm is expected to hit the area a day or so before kickoff, but there should be no issue with snow by the time Sunday evening’s game starts. If that’s the case, and the weather is good, then it will definitely favor the over here. When the Chiefs and Bills met in Week 14, they managed to combine for a total of 37 points even though one Kansas City drive ended with an interception just outside of the red zone and a late touchdown was called back because the Chiefs’ Kadarius Toney lined up just inside the neutral zone. That’s right -- Kansas City lost because a wide receiver was called for being offsides. Nevertheless, both teams’ offenses are heating up at the right time. While these defenses also have done a great job this season, this total is just too low for a Chiefs-Bills matchup.

The Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)

Best NFL Player Prop-Bets for Chiefs vs. Bills - NFL Divisional Round

Patrick Mahomes

I know the Bills had the seventh-best pass defense in the NFL this season. I also know they have caused problems for several opposing quarterbacks, including Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes in Week 14 (at least as far as fantasy points are concerned). Regardless of all that, this Bills defense didn’t impress me with their performance on Monday against Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. If Rudolph was able to throw for 229 yards against the Bills, then Mahomes can certainly exceed 250 passing yards in a win-or-go-home game. Mahomes has exceeded his current passing-yardage prop total in three of his last five games. He also did it already against Buffalo in Week 14.

The Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 253.5 passing yards (-115)

Best Same-Game Parlay NFL Divisional Round today for Chiefs vs. Bills: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+290)

Total Points As I mentioned above, I really like the over on the total for this game because I think both offenses are heating up at the perfect time. Although both defenses finished in the NFL’s top five in terms of fewest points allowed this season, this game is still all about the over for me. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Bills QB Josh Allen are both too talented not to perform a high level on Sunday night. Give me the adjusted total for our first leg, as we’ll play it conservative here.

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)

Patrick Mahomes The season-long struggles of the Kansas City Chiefs’ pass-catchers unquestionably remain a concern. In any case, the Chiefs should find themselves in the red zone a handful of times in this game if only due to their success in the run game and from getting defensive stops or turnovers in good field position. As a result, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes will be able to get at least two passing touchdowns. Look for Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to catch one of those passes, because he is the “ol’ reliable” factor on this team.

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-150)

Josh Allen Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level, and that will not change on Sunday. Having thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of his last two games, Allen is getting the job done through the air while also using his legs. When Allen gets into the red zone, he is always a threat to run the ball, but I think the Chiefs’ defense will force him to make plays through the air by limiting his rushing options. Give me Allen to complete two or more touchdown passes to close out this same-game parlay.

Leg-3 SGP Pick: Josh Allen 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-105)

Odds are subject to change* 

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