NFL betting picks: Best bets for Packers vs Bills
Alex Buck makes his Sunday Night Football picks and predictions for Packers vs Bills in Week 8 of the NFL season.
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NFL Schedule Week 8 - Game Information
2022 NFL Regular Season Game
Green Bay Packers (3-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
Date: 30th October 2022
Time: 8:20pm EST
Venue: Bills Stadium - Orchard Park, New York
TV Channel: NBC
Live Stream: FuboTV/NFL+
Live Radio: Sirius XM
The Buffalo Bills head into Sunday Night Football fresh off a bye week. They’re healthy, refreshed and looking to build on an impressive start to the 2022 campaign. The Bills only loss this season came on the road against the Miami Dolphins, but outside of that they’ve taken care of each and every opponent in what’s been a difficult start to the schedule.
Buffalo has already beaten the Ravens, Chiefs and Rams on the road, and is currently undefeated at home with wins over the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills have given up a total of 10 points in their two home games, so Aaron Rodgers is going to have his work cut out.
Buffalo’s home game opponents averaging five points a game is not the news you want to see as a Packers fan this week. Green Bay is struggling and the apparent hole left by star wideout Davante Adams is clear. The Packers have scored 14 points or less in three of their seven opening games. They currently rank 25th in third down conversions, down over eight per cent from 2021, and failed to convert a single third down on Sunday against the Washington Commanders.
Packers vs Bills Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 8
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers +375, Buffalo Bills -115
Spread: Green Bay Packers +11.5, Buffalo Bills -11.5
Total: Over/Under 47.5
The Buffalo Bills rank No. 1 in total offense per game so far this season. Their 440 yards per game is 37 yards clear of the No. 2-ranked Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo averages 29 points per game, the second-best total in the league, and is converting almost 53 per cent of their third down opportunities, another category they rank first.
Josh Allen is playing MVP-caliber football despite taking off running less than he was in 2021. Allen has thrown 17 touchdowns so far in the 2022 season, including back-to-back four-touchdown games at home against both Tennessee and Pittsburgh. The Bills quarterback is averaging 8.3 yards per completion in an explosive-looking Bills offense that has torched defenses over the top on multiple occasions already this season.
Stefon Diggs continues to be unguardable, with 656 yards receiving and six touchdowns through six games on the year, while Gabriel Davis is the league's best field-stretching pass catcher by quite some distance.
Davis is averaging 27.4 yards per catch on 14 receptions, which leads the league amongst all wide receivers with five or more targets by six yards. He’s out in front all by himself and it’s not surprising to see considering the number of times Josh Allen has found him in behind the defense already this year. Davis emerged during the playoffs in 2021, having taken over as the No. 2 from Emmanuel Sanders, and has continued that fine form this year.
Being the No. 1 offense in multiple categories is great for business in the NFL, but the Bills also rank number one in multiple defensive categories. They’re allowing 281.5 yards per game, 76.2 rushing yards per game and only 13.5 points per game. The Bills lead the league in all three categories.
So when you turn to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, it’s clear they’ve got their work cut out. The Packers have had their best games when involving their running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jones in particular has been outstanding for the Packers so far this season, both in the run game and as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
Rodgers needs to be able to lean on his running backs now more than ever with the passing game lacking a genuine No. 1 outlet, but going on the road and facing the best defense against the run is a recipe for disaster if the Packers can’t figure it out.
The Packers are spreading the targets around with Davante Adams gone. Rookie Romeo Doubs actually leads the team with 42 targets, while Allen Lazard has 41. Lazard missed some time early in the year but has made a difference since returning to the line up, catching four touchdowns. Robert Tonyan leads in receptions with 30 having had a big game against the New York Jets the week before last.
Defensively, Green Bay are the No. 1 team against the pass. They’re allowing just 168.9 passing yards per game and in doing so have helped the Packers to stay in some of their close games while the offense is struggling to perform. That said, they’re not forcing enough turnovers, currently ranked tied-third-worst in the league with just five. If the defense can step up and force a couple of turnovers against a very strong Bills offense, they might have a shot on the road, but without that, this is a mountain to climb.
Packers vs Bills Predictions and Picks
Aaron Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog in his 18-year career. Not once. Not at home, not on the road, not in his first season, and yet, I feel myself siding with the Buffalo Bills with very little difficulty, despite the 11.5-point line.
It might be moronic to bet against Aaron Rodgers even after giving him an 11.5-point advantage, but this game just feels out of reach for the Green Bay Packers in their current form. They are yet to show that they can fire the football all over the field and be consistent for four quarters, which is something Josh Allen and the Bills are excellent at.
In a match up between the Bills No. 1-ranked pass offense and the Packers No. 1-ranked pass defense, I think the Bills overwhelm the Packers with a high volume of passing attempts and a big night at home, so I’m taking the Bills against the spread.
The Pick: Buffalo Bills -11.5 (-110)
The over/under line feels low to me this week. The 47.5-point total is respectful to the Packers defense but in following the theme of my first betting line, I don’t think they slow down Buffalo enough.
The Bills can score 30+ points against Green Bay at home. This Josh Allen offense is a different beast and, while I respect the Packers defense and what they’ve been able to do, they still gave up 27 points to the New York Jets and a poorly-performing quarterback, 23 against Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Commanders, and 27 against Daniel Jones and the Giants.
Buffalo handles their business offensively here, scoring 34 points and doing more than their share to clear the over.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Sunday Night Football Week 8
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers line for passing touchdowns is set at 1.5 and, while it’s a road game and the Packers offense has had its struggles, I think Rodgers throwing touchdowns is going to be the Packers' best chance on the road. We already know that the Bills are a slam dunk defense against the run, so I can see a world where Aaron Rodgers has to turn to his pass catchers for a couple of TDs to keep them in it.
The Bills will likely score a good amount of points, and Rodgers is going to need to keep up.
The Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
Aaron JonesAaron Jones is going to be the key for the Packers moving the ball down the field. But not as a running back. I’d expect to see Jones as one of the leading targets in the game with a silenced rushing attack and Rodgers looking for options to extend drives.
Jones showed his value against the Commanders as a pass catcher, as he has done numerous times in his career. The Packers running back had 10 targets and nine catches for 53 yards and two receiving touchdowns on Sunday, and I don’t expect the Packers to shy away from that option in what’s going to be a tough game on the road.
