NFL betting picks: Best bets for Bills vs Saints
Zach Brunner provides his best NFL betting picks for the final day of Thanksgiving as the Bills take on the Saints.
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Let’s end Thanksgiving with some offensive fireworks. The Bills’ defense ranks highly due to the low level of opposition they have faced, and they were exposed by the Indianapolis Colts last week.
The Saints’ defense has too many mental lapses, and the Bills offense is very good. All three of the Saints’ home games have hit the over this season, as have three of Buffalo’s five away games. Look for those trends to continue as you go back for one more slice of pie.
The Saints suffered another injury last week, losing tight end Adam Trautman. That takes another receiving weapon out of the mix, which should force the Saints to rely on Smith even more. He has totaled over 40 yards in three straight weeks.
The Saints are projected to be trailing in this game, leading to a pass-heavy game script, which obviously benefits Smith.
Moss went from being the Bills’ lead back and best rusher to possibly being their third-best running back in terms of rushing production this week. After averaging 10.3 carries over his first six games this season, Moss has averaged only 4.3 the last three weeks, thanks in large part to the expanded role of Matt Breida.
The Saints are the toughest team in the league against the run, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry.
At the time of writing, neither Ingram nor Alvin Kamara has practiced for the Saints. Ingram seems closer to playing, and I am picking him to score a touchdown here, but if both are ruled out on Thursday you can switch this bet to Tony Jones.
For now, Ingram is our guy and is getting the majority of the touches with Kamara out. He faces an overrated Bills defense that was exposed by Jonathan Taylor last week, as he scored five touchdowns.