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Something to consider as you decide whether to make a futures bet on Defensive Player of the Year this late in the season: You are reading a column written by a former official NBA voter, so the perspective comes from experience.

Here is one thing you need to know about NBA awards voters: Not all of them take it equally seriously.

When I was a young NBA writer at the Associated Press, I was in San Antonio half a week before the end of the season and asked a USA Today writer sitting next to me at the Alamodome (where the Spurs once played) who he planned to vote for in the Most Valuable Player balloting. This was in 1997, the season after Michael Jordan had won his fourth MVP.

“Oh, I already sent that in. I voted for Karl Malone,” said the voter, whose identity is not going to be disclosed. “I always vote early, and I got tired of always voting for Michael.”

That writer is no longer covering the NBA, and this writer has not been an official voter for six years. But the lessons learned over three decades of covering the NBA remain as relevant as ever, especially this season as the MVP race is tight and the Defensive Player of the Year odds, it says here, are overstating the case for Marcus Smart of the Celtics as the even money favorite.

Yes, Smart is a terrific defender for a terrific Celtics team that has been playing as well as anyone over the past two months. Boston is +425 to win the East, shorter odds than everyone except the Bucks (+235) and the Nets (+320).

But has Smart done enough to be considered the favorite? Especially when comparing him to Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Memphis Grizzlies, whose odds have dropped from +1800 yesterday to +1000 today.

Jackson is actually the fifth choice, also behind Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat (+300), Mikal Bridges of the Phoenix Suns (+400) and Rudy Gobert of the Utah (+700).

There will be 100 votes this year, and Defensive Player of the Year may be the closest of them all because most of the writers and broadcasters who vote are going to base their ballots on statistical factors. Some will ask assistant coaches and scouts to help them choose the proper player, but not all. And it is very rare for a great on-the-ball defender such as Smart to win the award. The last guy like him to win it was Giannis Antetokounmpo two years ago, but Giannis is a forward. The last guard to win it was Gary Payton in 1996, so long ago that Payton’s son is now in the NBA playing for the Golden State Warriors.

Smart is comfortable making his own case, as seen below. But look at the relatively small number of views this received:

 Gamblers have to wonder: Are sportsbooks are using this among their metrics in determining the favorite?

So let’s do a statistical breakdown of the top five candidates to bolster out argument that JJJ remains a good bet at +1000.

Smart: Ranks seventh in the league in steals per game at 1.2, behind Dejounte Murray, Chris Paul, Matisse Thybulle, Gary Trent Jr., Tyrese Haliburton and Herbert Jones. Ranks 12th in defensive win shares and 17th in Defensive Box plus/minus. And yes, voters will look at those types of analytical stats before casting their ballots. Top five in nothing.

Adebayo: Before we look at his stats, something you need to understand: When voters fill out their ballots, they like to reward teams that performed well. And with Miami alone in first place in the East, someone from the Heat needs to be on a ballot. But Tyler Herro has that covered as the -10000 favorite for the Sixth Man Award. Adebayo is 68th (!) in the league in blocks with 44. He also has 78 steals, ranking him 35th in the league.

Bridges: The Suns will get an award when Monty Williams wins Coach of the Year, so voters will not need to play “find a Sun for my ballot.” Bridges, a small forward, is 16th in the league with 96 steals, is 94th in blocks with 36 and is seventh in defensive win shares, one spot ahead of Jackson and six spots ahead of Adebayo.

Gobert: The three-time winner of this award and the reigning DPOY, he trails Jackson Jr. by 38 blocks (he has 134, the same as Boston’s Robert Williams). He leads the league in defensive rebound percentage (36.4) and is third behind Jayson Tatum (Celtics) and Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) in Defensive Win Shares. A year ago, he received 84 of 100 first-place votes. He will get a few this year, but enough to win? The “I’m tired of voting for Rudy” factor will be in play.

Jackson Jr.: Leads the league with 172 blocks, 38 more than anyone else. Is ranked 55th in total defensive rebounds, which is not going to help him, and eighth in defensive win shares, one spot behind Bridges and one ahead of Antetokounmpo. His teammates are advocating for him, as is his team:

It will not help him that voters will already have Ja Morant (Most Improved Player) and Taylor Jenkins (Top three Coach of the Year) on their ballots, but leading the league in blocks will be a fallback for plenty of voters.

The bottom line is this: Voters will spend a lot of time debating their MVP picks in their heads before filling out their ballots. They will spend a lot less time trying to determining who should be DPOY. Expect the ballots to be all over the grid, nothing like last season when Gobert went 84-for-100. At +1000, Jackson Jr. remains a good bet. And if he has another good defensive game tonight against the Denver Nuggets, you will not see him at +1000 anymore. So if you are buying this, buy while the price is high.