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James Harden is on the shelf until next week, just as the Philadelphia 76ers are back on national TV against the hottest team in the NBA, the Boston Celtics.

So it looks as though we will have a reading tonight on whether Joel Embiid is pulling away in the MVP race, or whether his price is too short and there is an opportunity out there named DeMar DeRozan.

We are now five days removed from the NBA trade deadline, and some old faces in new places are doing better than others. The Portland Trail Blazers are suddenly in the postseason mix despite blowing up their team, and the franchise they have jumped ahead of, the New Orleans Pelicans, appear as though they will be fighting for 10th place between now and mid-April.

This is important to note as we close in on the All-Star break, because there are a bunch of teams playing for everything and a bunch of teams playing for nothing other than lottery ping-pong balls.

As far as wagering opportunities go, we want to start by pointing you to the individual races, only three of which seem undetermined (Ja Morant will likely win Most Improved, and Tyler Herro has clearly been the Sixth Man Award winner since December).

MVP is the gaudiest award, and Embiid is currently the +140 favorite, leading Nikola Jokic of Denver (+320), Giannis Antetokounmpo of Milwaukee (+400), Steph Curry of Golden State (+750) and Morant of the Grizzlies (+1100).

Embiid leads the league in scoring with a 29.5 average, and he is coming off a 40-point triple-double Saturday in a statement victory (including a statement dunk) over Cleveland.

 

Make no mistake: Embiid is a worthy favorite. But keep in mind that we do not yet know how the addition of Harden will impact him, and we must assume that there will be a learning curve.  So is Embiid a better value pick than DeRozan, even at his current short odds?

Let’s have a closer look:

Embiid is averaging career-highs in points and assists and is 21 3-pointers away from having his most proficient outside shooting season of his six-year career. His next 30-point game will be his 16th of the season.

DeRozan is averaging a career-high 27.9 points per game and has scored 30 or more in seven straight games. He leads the NBA with 431 fourth-quarter points, and his team is sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference, just a half-game behind the Miami Heat. Embiid’s Sixers are in fourth place, 2.5 games back, and have clinched the season series against Chicago by going 3-0 against the Bulls thus far.

That all adds up to a pretty strong argument for Embiid, but a cautionary note: Embiid has never played more than 64 games in an NBA season. He is an injury magnet, although this season he has missed only 12 games. If he stays healthy, he will qualify for the scoring title and all of the postseason awards. (The operative word there is “if.”)

Should Embiid go down again, opportunity knocks. And opportunity is named DeRozan.

As for Rookie of the Year, it is difficult to predict any platitudes for the Oklahoma City Thunder, the most under-the-radar team in the entire NBA. Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers is the -400 favorite to win the award, but Josh Giddey could be staging a late run after going for his third triple-double Monday night in an overtime victory over the New York Knicks, giving him back-to-back triple-doubles.

Giddey is currently +2000, with longer odds than Scottie Barnes of Toronto, Cade Cunningham of the Pistons and Franz Wagner of Orlando. Wagner and Cunningham are tied for the league lead in scoring among rookies at 15.6 points per game, and Giddey has a 3-2 lead over Cunningham for most triple-doubles. None of those rookies aside from Mobley are a part of playoff contending teams (the jury is still out on the Raptors), so +2000 is not all that bad of a line for the 19-year-old from Australia who leads all rookies in assists with 6.3 per game.

So again, the futures markets offer opportunities. Yes, you will need a couple of breaks to have DeRozan and/or Giddey pay off by the end of the season. But remember that these awards are voted on after all 82 games have been played, and we are two months away from being there.

Now let’s have a look at tonight’s slate, along with our picks. As always, hedge any parlays with a round robin.

Boston (+1) at Philadelphia: An eight-game winning streak is the Celtics’ longest since the 2019-20 team had 10 consecutive wins following a season-opening loss. The closest any opponent has come during the current streak is six points, so the question for tonight is: Can the Celtics sustain this? Well, as a road favorite they are 9-4-0, the fourth-best record in that category behind Orlando (1-0), Memphis (8-2) and Toronto (5-2). Philly is 3-4-0 as a home underdog, so the trends favor Boston.

Our advice? With Harden out until after the All-Star break because of his bad hamstring, and with Seth Curry and Andre Drummond having relocated to Brooklyn, the Sixers are undermanned and will have to ride Embiid hard. He is coming off his first triple-double of the season and is +1700 to make it two in a row. At those odds, it is worth a flyer – especially since Giddey just put up his second TD in a row, and Embiid > Giddey. So go with that flyer and keep this one off the parlay card. There are other games that are easier to pick.

Cleveland (-1.5) at Atlanta: These team are 1-1 head to head, and the Cavs are looking to bounce back from Saturday night’s loss to Philadelphia. Cleveland is coming into this road game with plenty of rest but is only 5-5-1 as a road favorite. Atlanta, coming off consecutive losses to the Spurs and Celtics, is 2-3-0 as a home favorite. With losses in four of their past five games, we ain’t all that high on Trae Young and crew. But this one should be close because the Hawks are one of the few teams with the size to match up with the Cavs, so the play here is newly minted All-Star Jarrett Allen (he will replace Harden) to go over a combined 26.5 points, rebounds and assists (-115).

Dallas (+4) at Miami: The Mavs are going to have to grow accustomed to playing a lot smaller after trading Kristaps Porzingis to Washington for Spencer Dinwiddie, and it is a mystery how they plan to get the most out of three guys – Dinwiddie, Jalen Brunson and Luka Doncic – who are all creators and need the ball in their hands. Miami is 15-7-0 against the spread in non-conference games and Dallas is only 8-11-1 in the same category, so go ahead and give the points (-110) while taking the Heat.

Indiana (+11.5) at Milwaukee: Tough call after Giannis sat out last night with a sore left ankle in a home loss to Portland, and we would be remiss not to acknowledge that many of the Association are already in All-Star break mode. The Pacers are working in the players they acquired at the deadline after shedding Caris LaVert (to Cleveland) and Domantas Sabonis (to Sacramento), having lost six in a row. With so many new guys, the safe play is to stay away from the point spread and trust that Tyrese Haliburton, coming off a 16-assist performance, will easily go over 8.5 assists (+110).

Charlotte (+6) at Minnesota: Condolences if this is in your viewing plans for this evening. Both teams are shaping up as play-in teams, and the hotter of the two is Minnesota with five victories in the last seven games while the Hornets have gone 1-7 over a similar span. The Wolves’ next seven-point victory will be their seventh since Jan. 30. They are better than most people know, so go ahead and give the points (-110).

Memphis (-4.5) at New Orleans: The Pelicans are incorporating C.J. McCollum into their lineup after acquiring him from Portland and are coming off a 30-point (!) victory over Toronto, but the Grizzlies are a different animal and will be a tougher test. Memphis is 8-2-0 as a road favorite, the best record among teams that have been favored on the road more than once. The Grizzlies are on a five-game winning streak and will be revenge-minded since they lost at NOLA back in November in the only game between the teams this season. Jonas Valanciunas of the Pelicans faces his old team, and we like him to go over 10.5 rebounds (-120) but the Grizzlies to win and cover (-110).

L.A. Clippers (+12.5) at Phoenix: This is a very big spread, especially with the Clippers having established themselves are the NBA’s best comeback team. El Lay is on the second half of a back-to-back after defeating Golden State last night, and the Suns are 12-9-0 against the spread with a rest advantage. Your author put a flyer wager on Ty Lue for Coach of the Year a couple months back and is refusing to accept the possibility that his bet is now dead money. So take that into consideration as he advises you to take the points (-110). The Clips have not lost by 13 or more a total of 14 times. Phoenix has won by 13 or more 18 times, but is 1-1 against the Clips, who are never out of it even if they are trailing by 25. Good luck!