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Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Best Bets: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Saturday, August 5, 2023 

Jake Paul’s boxing showcase continues this weekend against MMA fighter Nate Diaz in one of the hottest fight tickets of 2023. Paul enters this bout having now faced four genuine fighters and suffering his first loss against British boxer Tommy Fury, younger brother of the legendary Tyson Fury.

Paul's current record sits at 6-1. His first two fights were mere exhibitions against a Youtuber and a retired NBA player, but he has managed wins against Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley, whom he beat twice, and Anderson Silva. All three had retired by the time they fought Paul, having endured a decline in their performance during their final fights in the UFC.

Paul weighed in at 183 pounds for the Tommy Fury fight, while Diaz’s weight for his last UFC fight was 171 pounds. This weekend’s fight will allow for a maximum weight of 185 pounds, as was the case in Paul-Fury matchup, so this is a far more comfortable weight for Paul than it is for Diaz. A look at the fight history for both Paul and Diaz reveals similarities between Diaz and Paul's previous former UFC opponents. Diaz won two out of his last four UFC fights between 2019 and 2022, and he has faced some challenges since his fight against Conor McGregor.

Let’s examine how this fight measures up before the bell sounds on Saturday night, starting with the odds and an overview of the matchup.

Nate Diaz vs Jake Paul Odds – Betway Boxing Betting Lines: Saturday, Aug 5

Boxing Moneyline: Jake Paul -385, Nate Diaz +280
Method of Victory:
Jake Paul KO, TKO or disqualification -150
Jake Paul decision or technical decision +350
Nate Diaz KO, TKO or disqualification +550
Nate Diaz decision or technical decision +750
Draw or technical draw +1200
When will the fight end:
Over 5.5 Rounds: -245, Under +180
Over 6.5 Rounds: -170, Under +130
Over 8.5 Rounds: +110, Under -145

Odds are subject to change*

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Predictions and Picks

Nate Diaz enters this fight as the underdog, and he’s going to face an uphill battle if he wants to pull off an upset on Saturday night.

Diaz has been a great fighter -- there’s no denying that. He’s certainly got boxing ability in his repertoire, but his best work in the UFC always came via submission with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and dangerous approach to his ground game.

The martial artist choked out several opponents in the UFC, including the win over Conor McGregor, his most famous victory. He is not a powerful striker and doesn’t deal enough damage to knock people out, especially not somebody who’s been training as a full-time boxer in recent years.

At this point, we need to stop looking at Jake Paul as a Youtuber. He’s not that kid anymore. Now 26, Paul has been training in a professional boxing camp for several years. Sure, he picked up his first loss against Tommy Fury, but it was very close, and Paul held his own throughout the fight.

Paul can take damage and fights without fear. Diaz will be limited to his boxing skills alone, and he’s making his professional boxing debut in this one.

Ultimately, this shapes up as a bounce-back fight for Jake Paul. He will have pushed himself harder than ever after tasting defeat for the first time, and I’d be willing to bet he unleashes that frustration on the 38-year-old Diaz.

With a 10-round fight on the cards, I’m betting that Jake Paul wears Nate Diaz out by the seventh round. It will come down to Paul finishing off his opponent before the final bell.

The Pick: Jake Paul to win by KO/TKO (-150)

In reviewing recent fights involving both Paul and Diaz, it’s clear that one guy is on the way up and the other is headed toward retirement.

Diaz has only fought four times since he lost to Conor McGregor in 2016, winning two of those four fights. His most recent bout came against Tony Ferguson, who is also far from the fighter he used to be.

It was a great fight to be fair, with Diaz coming out on top via submission in the fourth round. Once again, though, Diaz relies on his ground game to defeat opponents, and it's where he’s most dangerous.

Without that aspect to his game available in a boxing match, Diaz’s best chance to win is by knockout, so he’s going to have to go for it. There is no chance he wins with technical boxing ability on the scorecards, and he knows that.

The likelihood of Diaz catching Paul with enough force to KO him is very minimal in my mind. Paul, on the other hand, can wear Diaz down. Jake Paul's stats stand at four knockouts in six fights, and I like the 5-6 round odds for the fight.

The Pick: Jake Paul to win in Rounds 5-6 (+500)

This Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz fight will be a fun one, although it is a mismatch in terms of each fighter’s genuine boxing background. Avoiding dangerous headshots is going to be difficult for Diaz, and he can’t shoot for a takedown or grapple, so how he handles that risk is going to be very interesting.

Perhaps he will come out on the front foot and try to put the fight away before he runs out of gas. If he does, it will be a thriller.

Two of Diaz’s first four MMA fights were KOs, but as his career went on, he leaned very heavily into grappling and Jiu Jitsu. A look at Diaz’s stats reveals that of his 22 wins, only four have been knockouts. The last of those was against Gray Maynard in 2013 … so Nate Diaz’s record does not exactly suggest he possesses the knockout ability needed in a boxing ring.

As the fight wears on, Diaz is going to take some damage and will likely end up being knocked down at least once. The odds look great for that, too, so we’ll round out our picks with the expectation that Diaz won’t remain standing for this entire fight.

The Pick: Nate Diaz to be knocked down (-175)

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