Champions League Semi-Finals Parlay picks (+158) for Leg 1 games
Alex Buck reveals his Champions League parlay picks, and predictions for the semifinals’ first-leg games, with 2 best bets.
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In May, the competition for the 2022-23 Champions League title intensifies as four teams prepare to face each other in the semifinals. Real Madrid, the reigning champions, have made it to the final four once again after defeating Chelsea 4-0 on aggregate in the quarterfinals. For the third time and second consecutive season, their semifinal opponent will be Manchester City, who qualified after a 4-1 aggregate win over Bayern Munich.
On the other side of the draw, San Siro Stadium will host an exciting Milan derby, as AC Milan and Inter Milan, who both made it through to the semifinals, will play both of their two games there. AC Milan advanced after defeating Serie A leaders Napoli 2-1 on aggregate, while Inter Milan overcame Benfica with an overall scoreline of 5-3.
The Champions League semifinals are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, May 9. For those looking for some soccer betting tips, I’ve put together my Champions League semifinal predictions and free soccer picks for these upcoming matchups.
Best 2023 UEFA Champions League Semi-final Parlays: 2-leg Parlay Picks (+158)
Real Madrid vs Manchester City Odds & Spread – Champions League Betting Lines 5/9
3-way handicap: Real Madrid (+200) | Draw (+250) | Manchester City (+115)
Draw No Bet: Real Madrid (+125) | Manchester City (-175)
Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-150) | Under 2.5 (+115)
Double Chance: Real Madrid or Tie (-143) | Tie or Manchester City (-275) | Real Madrid or Manchester City (-350)
Both teams to score: Yes (-167), No (+130)
1st Goal: Real Madrid (+120) | No Goal (+1100) | Manchester City (-130)
Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction & Pick
Real Madrid's season has been inconsistent, and they are currently 14 points behind Barcelona in La Liga, making it almost mathematically impossible for them to defend their title. Their domestic play has been patchy with 21 wins, five draws, and seven losses. Although they made it to the Copa del Rey final this weekend, the Champions League offers their only chance of winning additional silverware in the 2022-23 season.
In Europe, Real Madrid have dominated English opposition during the knockout stages of the Champions League. They eliminated Liverpool in the round of 16 and then defeated Chelsea 4-0 on aggregate in the quarterfinals. This semifinal clash with Manchester City will be Madrid's sixth consecutive knockout matchup against an English opponent in the UCL. They are looking to extend their record for trips to the final of Europe's biggest tournament by reaching it for the 18th time.
In terms of injuries ahead of the first leg between Real Madrid vs Manchester City, Madrid will have a fully healthy squad except for left back Ferland Mendy, who is still recovering from a muscle injury. City meanwhile have a fully healthy lineup.
Manchester City have clicked into top gear just in time for the business end of the 2022-23 campaign, remaining in contention to complete the historic triple of winning the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, and FA Cup.
City's form in Europe has been impressive throughout the tournament. Erling Haaland tied Lionel Messi's single-game record by scoring five goals in a 7-0 win against RB Leipzig in the round of 16, while the Norwegian also got on the scoresheet in both quarterfinal legs against Bayern Munich.
In addition to the prolific Karim Benzema and Erling Haaland, both teams boast a host of creative talents. Vinicius Junior and Luka Modric represent Madrid, while Manchester City has a formidable trio in Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva, and the incomparable Kevin De Bruyne.
One relatively sure-fire bet is that both teams will score at Madrid’s Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Last season's semifinal matchups produced a total of 11 goals. Although this year's encounter is expected to be more closely contested and have fewer goals, it is difficult to envision either side maintaining a clean sheet with so much attacking talent on display. Because of this, I’m kicking off my Champions League parlay with both teams to score on Tuesday night.
Leg-1 Parlay Pick: Both Teams to Score (-167)
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Odds & Spread – Champions League Betting Lines 5/10
3-way handicap: AC Milan (+180) | Draw (+200) | Inter Milan (+150)
Draw No Bet: AC Milan (+100) | Inter Milan (-138)
Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-163)
Double Chance: AC Milan or Tie (-188) | Tie or Inter Milan (-250) | AC Milan or Inter Milan (-275)
Both teams to score: Yes (-110), No (-118)
1st Goal: AC Milan (+120) | No Goal (+650) | Inter Milan (-106)
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction & Pick
AC Milan's performance in Serie A has been inconsistent this season, as they failed to defend their title. Juventus' 15-point deduction has seen AC Milan drop out of Champions League contention for next season, so winning looks like their best chance of returning to the competition.
In Europe, Milan overcame two losses to Chelsea to qualify as runners-up in Group E and beat Tottenham 1-0 in the round of 16. They then won a counter-attacking masterclass against Serie A champions-elect Napoli in the quarterfinals. They won 1-0 at San Siro and drew 1-1 in Naples, thanks to Olivier Giroud's goal.
AC Milan currently have no significant injury concerns except for midfielder Tommaso Pobega, who recently fractured his rib, and striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is doubtful due to ongoing calf problems. No players are suspended.
Inter has also been affected by Juventus' 15-point deduction, and currently sit fourth in Serie A. They've been inconsistent domestically, winning 19, losing 11, and drawing three of their 33 league games.
In Europe, Inter qualified from the "Group of Death" in second place and eliminated Barcelona in the process. They edged Porto 1-0 on aggregate in the round of 16-second leg before beating Benfica 2-0 at the Estádio da Luz. Inter was in control throughout the game and qualified comfortably for the final four, even though Benfica subsequently earned a 3-3 draw at San Siro.
However, Inter's influential center-back, Milan Škriniar, is likely to miss the two games against Milan due to an ongoing back issue that has been diagnosed as a lumbar vertebra fracture. He might only be healthy in time for the UCL final if Inter gets there. Fellow central defender Alessandro Fontanarosa is also sidelined with an unknown injury.
Inter not only has a clear advantage over their city rivals historically, but they have also been superior to their opponents in the 2022-23 season. Besides winning the Supercoppa Italiana earlier in the year, Inter defeated Milan 1-0 in a Serie A match on Feb. 5. However, Milan emerged victorious in the teams’ second league game in September, winning 3-2 in an exhilarating game.
Interestingly, the three matches between the two teams this year have produced a total of nine goals, exposing the defensive weaknesses both sides have displayed at times in the 2022-23 season. Nonetheless, these vulnerabilities have motivated Milan and Inter to adopt a more defensive approach in Europe, and I anticipate this trend will continue in what is expected to be a tense semifinal.
It is important to note that the magnitude of this matchup is amplified by the local rivalry between the two teams and their recent lack of success in the Champions League. Neither team will therefore want to lose the first leg or become overly aggressive in their attack.
With this in mind, I expect it to be a low-scoring affair, so the second part of my Champions League best bets is under 2.5 goals scored.
Leg-2 Parlay Pick: Under 2.5 goals scored (-163)
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