2-Leg Same Game Parlay Picks Today (+200) Benfica vs Inter Milan
Alex Buck reveals his SGP picks for Benfica vs Inter Milan in the Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 1, with 2 best bets.
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The Champions League Group H winner Benfica will host Italian side Inter Milan tonight in the first leg of their quarterfinal matchup. The Portuguese outfit defeated Club Brugge 7-1 on aggregate in the Round of 16 to advance to the final eight, while Inter Milan scraped past Porto in a 1-0 aggregate win in which Porto had a player sent off in both games.
Benfica impressed in the group stage with two wins over Juventus and two closely contested ties with French giants PSG. Inter also fought through a tough group to advance, overcoming two losses to start the tournament with three wins and a draw over their final four games.
The Italian outfit will now face another Portuguese side after edging past Porto, with tonight's first leg taking place at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon.
Benfica vs Inter Milan Odds & Spread – Champions League Betting Lines 4/11 3-way handicap: Benfica -1 (+333) | Draw -1 (+280) | Inter Milan +1 (-154)
Draw No Bet: Benfica (-175) | Inter Milan (+125)
Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under (-145)
Double Chance: Benfica or Tie (-286) | Tie or Inter Milan (-163) | Benfica or Inter Milan (-286)
Both teams to score: Yes (-115), No (-110)
1st Goal: Benfica (-125) | No Goal (+700) | Inter Milan (+137)
Benfica vs Inter Milan Preview - Championship League Quarter Finals Leg-1
Date: Tuesday, April 11
Time: 3 p.m. EST
TV channel: Paramount+
Live stream: Paramount+/ViX
Benfica come into tonight’s game as a slight favorite -- edging the odds with a +125 win/draw/win betting line vs. Inter Milan's +240. The Portuguese side's Round of 16 performance was far more convincing, especially its 5-1 win in the second leg against Club Brugge. They’ll be looking to replicate that fine performance at home before traveling to Italy for the return leg next week.
Inter Milan might have advanced past Porto, but they’ll be hoping for a far more convincing performance this time around. They find themselves in the final eight of the Champions League with 11 goals scored in eight games, and just a plus-4 goal difference.
Benfica vs Inter Milan Line-ups & Injuries
As Benfica prepares to face Inter Milan in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal, they will have to cope with a few injuries. Goncalo Guedes, Julian Draxler, and Mihailo Ristic will all be sidelined, while Nicolas Otamendi will miss the match due to a suspension. Alexander Bah's availability is also in doubt after he was taken off during last week's loss to Porto.
Meanwhile, Inter Milan will be without key players Milan Skriniar and Hakan Calhanoglu, who both ran into fitness issues during the international break. Romelu Lukaku is pushing to start but might be benched after struggling in the previous match against Salernitana, with Edin Dzeko expected to partner Lautaro Martinez up front.
Best 2023 UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Predictions & Same Game Parlay Picks Today: Benfica vs Inter Milan (+200)
Benfica have won 12 out of their last 13 games, with 11 ending with a 2-plus goal advantage. With the best attack (68 goals scored) and the best defense (16 conceded) in Portugal, Benfica is the favorite to win against Inter. They have two of the top scorers in the league, João Mário and Gonçalo Ramos, with 17 goals each, as well as the second and third top assist providers, Alejandro Grimaldo (8) and João Mário (6), respectively.
Although Inter have struggled to keep clean sheets in the past month, Benfica's defensive record is among the best in Europe. They will be without key players Alexander Bah and Nicolás Otamendi, but will still field a strong back four of Gilberto, Morato, António Silva, and Grimaldo, with Florentino Luís and Chiquinho in midfield, and João Mário, Rafa Silva, Fredrik Aursnes, and Gonçalo Ramos in attack.
On the other hand, Inter's top scorer in Serie A is Lautaro Martínez with 14 goals, followed by Edin Džeko (7), Nicolò Barella (5), Federico Dimarco, Henrik Mkhitaryan, Romelu Lukaku, and Joaquín Correa (3). Džeko (3) and Lukaku (2) are their two top scorers in the Champions League. Martínez has only scored once in the Champions League this season -- the same as his tally in the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. However, he hasn't scored since March 5, and his recent struggles might hinder Inter’s ability to take advantage of Benfica's absences at the back.
Benfica are expected to win here, but I’m playing it extra safe and covering the draw to kick off this Same Game Parlay Bet.
SGP Pick Leg-1: Benfica or Draw (-334)
Total Goals 2.5
Inter have only managed to keep one clean sheet in their last seven matches, apart from their draw in Porto which secured their passage to the Champions League quarterfinals. Interestingly, their last clean sheet happened to coincide with Milan Škriniar's last appearance before missing the past month with an injury.
I expect that João Mário, Gonçalo Ramos, Rafa Silva, and the rest of the Benfica team will take advantage of Inter's leaky backline and lack of pace in defending the counter. They will likely put plenty of pressure on Darmian, who has struggled to adapt to his unconventional role under Inzaghi.
The absence of Nicolás Otamendi, who is not only Benfica's captain but also an experienced leader and gritty, no-nonsense warrior, could be felt by his team at the Luz. Morato, who is Otamendi's replacement, may show some rustiness, since he has only made two appearances in the league this year. One was a 90-minute appearance against Santa Clara on Jan. 21, and the other was a 15-minute appearance against Vitória on March 18. This rustiness could be exploited by a combination of Džeko, Martínez, and Lukaku.
I expect there to be a handful of goals in the first leg in Lisbon, as both teams are missing key personnel in defense.
SGP Pick Leg 2: Over 2.5 Goals (+120)
Odds subject to change*
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