Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under – Odds to win Super Bowl LVIII

Moneyline: Chiefs +110, 49ers -130
Spread: Chiefs +2 (-110), 49ers -2 (+110)
Total: Over/Under 47.5 Points, Over -110, Under -110

2024 Super Bowl – Game info - Kansas vs San Francisco 

Super Bowl LVIII
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 3-0 playoffs) vs. San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 11
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev.
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: Paramount+

After 272 regular-season games and another twelve in the playoffs, the 2023-24 NFL season concludes on Feb. 11 in Las Vegas with a clash between the AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs and their NFC counterparts, the San Francisco 49ers. This game at Allegiant Stadium will be the first Super Bowl ever held in Vegas, and it features the rematch of a game played four years ago in Super Bowl LIV. 

In that Super Bowl, the Chiefs mounted a pulsating fourth-quarter comeback for their first title in 50 years. The win ushered in a dynasty that is still in full swing, as Kansas City is now competing in its fourth Super Bowl in five years.

The 49ers, on the other hand, are playing in their first Super Bowl since that loss to the Chiefs four years ago in Miami. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan will be looking to make amends for that one by giving the Niners faithful their first championship since 1995.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Preview

This postseason has provided a change of scenery for Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, whose team had to play its first road playoff games in eight years. Some observers predicted the Chiefs would struggle in their trips to Buffalo and Baltimore, and the oddsmakers had Kansas City as a narrow underdog heading into both of those games.

Not to be denied, Reid’s experienced team won in each hostile environment and was impressive on both sides of the ball. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit received effusive praise for its showing in Baltimore, as the Chiefs held NFL MVP-in-waiting Lamar Jackson and his Ravens to just 10 points, which matched their lowest total from the regular season.

This Chiefs’ defense has been one of the biggest NFL stories in 2023-24. Kansas City ranked second for fewest total yards allowed, after seven straight seasons finishing outside the league’s top five. Bucking their reputation throughout the Mahomes era, the 2023-24 Chiefs have been impressive on the defensive side of the ball. They are led up front by veteran defensive tackle Chris Jones and second-year starting defensive end George Karlaftis, while cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie are the leaders in the secondary.

This final postseason test will not be an easy one for Kansas City. The San Francisco 49ers’ offense is absolutely loaded with talent, and five of its members – Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams – earned All-Pro honors this season.

Unsurprisingly, the 49ers have had one of the league’s most productive offenses all year, ranking third in scoring and second in yardage. The man steering this ship at quarterback is former NFL Draft “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy, who led the league in passer rating during the regular season while throwing for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns along the way.

Throughout the season, Purdy has had his share of critics among fans and pundits alike, as many argue that he has only been successful because of the quality of his teammates. However, while Purdy might not have the obvious, flashy qualities of a player like Mahomes, his second-half performance against the Detroit Lions in this year’s NFC Championship Game was impressive.

In that second half alone, Purdy completed 13 of 16 passing attempts for 174 yards – including one huge chunk on a deep Brandon Aiyuk reception. Against Detroit, Purdy’s second-half passer rating was an eye-popping 132.8, which enabled him to guide the Niners to a 17-point comeback after a brutal first half. Of course, it’s fair to say that Purdy and his offense will need to get going much earlier in the Super Bowl if they plan to keep up with K.C.

Attempting to stop Mahomes and Co. from scoring is no easy task for any NFL defense, but this Niners unit is one of the league’s very best. In Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, the 49ers have as good a linebacker duo is there is in the NFL, and there is no doubt that Kansas City’s Reid and his coaching staff will have a long two weeks of game planning to prepare for San Francisco.

Factor in San Francisco’s Charvarius Ward at cornerback and Nick Bosa at defensive end, and this 49ers defense looks well equipped to deal with Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. It helps that Kansas City’s offense has not hit its usual heights this year, hindered in part by issues with dropped passes by receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney.

Last Sunday in Baltimore, Mahomes was cool and efficient, mostly completing short passes. His only pass for more than 25 yards was his final one -- thrown to Valdes-Scantling on a third-down conversion that sealed the Chiefs’ trip to Vegas. Now, with tight end Travis Kelce regaining his top form at just right the right time – Kelce had 11 catches for 116 yards in the AFC Championship Game – expect the Chiefs to try and chip away at the Niners’ defense slowly but surely over the course of Sunday’s game.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick

This is not the Chiefs offense of previous years, and in the regular season they ranked just 15th in scoring offense, their lowest mark since 2014. However, their defense has been excellent and is capable of shutting down even the best NFL offenses.

Last year’s Chiefs-Eagles thriller in Arizona was the first Super Bowl to hit the over in five years, but I can see this one going under again. While there will surely be plenty of offensive firepower on display here – especially from the 49ers – this is a clash between two of the absolute best defenses in football. Expect something similar to the Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship Game -- a defensive clinic, masterminded by defensive coordinators Steve Spagnuolo of Kansas City and Steve Wilks of San Francisco.

The Pick: Under 47.5 Points (-110)

How does one pick a winner here? The oddsmakers have this game split near enough down the middle, much as they did when these teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago. In that one, the Chiefs were 1.5-point favorites, but here the 49ers are favored by two. San Francisco hasn’t been totally convincing in either of its two playoff wins this year, having failed to cover the spread both times.

In this case, however, I think the Niners will get the job done and erase the ghosts of Super Bowl LIV. A win would also erase head coach Kyle Shanahan’s personal demons related to blowing a 28-3 lead when he was the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator in Super Bowl LI. The Niners have a much more reliable offense than Kansas City and a more complete team all-around.

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers Moneyline (-130)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets for 49ers vs. ChiefsChristian McCaffrey

While there are so many options to pick from on this 49ers offense, the star of the show is the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year-elect Christian McCaffrey. Since coming over from Carolina in October 2022, the running back has been a phenomenon in San Francisco and tied the all-time NFL record of 17 consecutive games with a touchdown along the way.

In the previous two playoff rounds, McCaffrey has found the end zone a total four times, with his two TDs against Detroit bringing him up to 25 on the season (including playoffs). That broke a franchise record held by none other than Hall of Famer Jerry Rice. There is no doubt that the Niners will feed McCaffrey on the ground and through the air throughout Super Bowl LVIII. As a result, he’s a solid selection to again pick up multiple scores.

The Pick: Christian McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns (+160)

Patrick Mahomes

There’s no denying the generational skill set of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is unquestionably one of the greatest to ever play his position. This season, however, Mahomes has not quite hit the phenomenal heights he achieved over his first five remarkable years in pro football. Even in his most impressive 2023-24 performances, he hasn’t been racking up the gaudy numbers we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from him.

With the exception of one outlier – a 424-yard showing against the hapless Los Angeles Chargers – Mahomes has not thrown for more than 306 yards in any other game all season. As was mentioned here earlier, the Chiefs have lacked a reliable deep threat all year, so expect plenty of short passes from Mahomes in this one. 

The Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 261.5 Passing Yards

Odds are subject to change*

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