Chiefs vs Jets Predictions, Odds, Picks, Props and SPGs (+450)
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his SNF picks and predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets game in Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.
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NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 1-0 Away) vs New York Jets (1-2, 1-1 Home)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.
TV Channel: NBC
Live Stream: Peacock
Live Radio: 104.7 The Cave (Chiefs) and ESPN New York 98.7 FM
Sunday Night Football on NBC returns to MetLife Stadium for the first time since its season-opener, when the Dallas Cowboys routed the New York Giants 40-0. That was a game most of the fans who were at MetLife Stadium would prefer to forget. This time around, the Jets (who share the stadium with the Giants) are the home team, and with the Kansas City Chiefs as their opponent, another MetLife blowout seems likely.
Chiefs vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 4
Chiefs at Jets Preview
Before the start of this season, there were high hopes for this Week 4 Sunday matchup, which had the potential to be an AFC Championship Game preview, or at least set the stage for any Jets-Chiefs matchup in an earlier playoff round. Those hopes were so high because the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers gave the Jets a sudden opportunity to go deep into the postseason. Fast-forward to present day, however, and it’s a very different story. Rodgers is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, which has left backup quarterback Zach Wilson in charge of the Jets offense. With Wilson in at QB, this game already has a completely different feel. What was expected to be a shootout between two great quarterbacks now has fans wondering if the Jets can simply manage to keep the score close. Let's break down this primetime Sunday night matchup.
Chiefs vs. Jets Predictions and NFL Picks Week 4
J-E-T-S, mess, mess, mess. What a rollercoaster year it has already been for the New York Jets, who lost future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a torn Achilles tendon in Week 1. While the Jets pulled off a miracle and beat the Buffalo Bills in that Monday night game at home, they’re going to need an even bigger miracle to take down the visiting Chiefs in Week 4. Kansas City’s defense has been re-energized by the return of defensive tackle Chris Jones, and the Chiefs offense is flowing again, because tight end Travis Kelce is also healthy. This team is rocking, and it has added an entirely new group of fans known as the Swifties.
New York quarterback Zach Wilson has a tall task ahead of him on Sunday night if he hopes to pull off an upset against Kansas City. Wilson is 1-6 in his past seven starts. He's also 1-6 against the spread and has a 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 188.8 passing yards per game. The Chiefs were heavy favorites against the Chicago Bears last week, and they delivered. They will deliver again Sunday night on the road. Yes, the Jets defense is significantly better than the Bears defense was, but we're talking about one of the best quarterbacks of this era in Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Give me the Chiefs and the large spread all night.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
In Zach Wilson’s last nine starts, the under has hit eight of nine times. Despite their team having virtually no offense, the Jets’ defense has held its own in allowing only 20.3 points per game -- the 13th-best performance in the NFL. They will be going up against a juggernaut in facing Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid, because the Chiefs just put up 41 points against Chicago without breaking a sweat. The Jets signed free-agent quarterback Trevor Siemian as Wilson’s backup, and he might even replace Wilson, given how poorly the young QB has played. Wilson knows he’s on the hot seat, so look for him to try to play the best game of career on Sunday night. He has great incentive to perform well, but he is facing a Chiefs defense that allows the NFL’s fourth-fewest points per game (13.3) so far this season. However, as crazy as it sounds, I can see Wilson getting his Jets roughly 10 points, which would be more than enough to hit this over total. That’s also because I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Chiefs exceed this number by themselves.
The Pick: Over 41.5 (-110)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Chiefs vs. Jets : Sunday Night Football Week 4
There are several player props that I like for this Sunday night game, so choosing just one player’s performance is certainly hard. However, if I have to choose only one, then I’m going to choose tight end Travis Kelce, whose new girlfriend, Taylor Swift, will be in attendance. That fact alone is added incentive for Kelce to put on a good show. He doesn’t need additional motivation, however, because, he’s still the bread and butter of this Chiefs offense and QB Patrick Mahomes’ go-to target. Kansas City has a bunch of young and unproven wide receivers that they are looking to develop before the playoffs, but for now its Kelce, Kelce, and more Kelce. As stagnant and tough as this Jets defense is, when it comes to defending the tight end position they crumble. Through the first three games, Jets defenders have allowed the NFL’s fifth-most yards and the most total touchdowns to opposing teams’ tight ends. Look for Kelce to have a big night at MetLife Stadium.
Best Same-Game Parlay Week 4 bets for Chiefs vs Jets: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+450)
This is going to be another big game for Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who will be up against one of the best defenses he has faced so far this season. However, that vaunted Jets defense won’t be a problem for Mahomes, who has thrown two or more touchdowns passes in each of his starts dating back to the last week of the 2022 regular season, when he only managed to pass for one TD against the Las Vegas Raiders. So, predicting Mahomes to get two or more passing touchdowns is how we’ll kick off this same-game parlay for Sunday night.
Leg-1 SGP Pick: Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-215)
If Patrick Mahomes is going to have a big night, then we had better expect tight end Travis Kelce to have a big night, too. As I touched on above, this Jets defense is good, but it struggles to defend opposing tight ends. If they couldn’t defend the previous tight ends they faced-- Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jake Ferguson, Hunter Henry and others -- then they are not going to be able to defend Kelce.
Leg-2 SGP Pick: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (-155)
Chiefs rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice saw a career-high seven targets against the Chicago Bears in Week 3. While the Chiefs have seemed to focus on a different wide receiver each week -- and it will remain that way for quite awhile -- I like Rice to have a decent performance on Sunday. Head coach Andy Reid has praised Rice’s growth this season, and I could see Patrick Mahomes throwing his way a few times against the Jets. Every wide receiver prop for the Chiefs is a buy-low right now since no one really knows where Mahomes will choose to go when he isn’t passing to Travis Kelce. I can see Mahomes spreading the wealth here, as the Chiefs will use this game as something of a glorified practice.
Leg-3 SGP Pick: Rashee Rice 40+ Receiving Yards (+205)
Odds are subject to change*
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