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NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 1-0 Away) vs New Orleans Saints (2-1, 1-0 Home)
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome at New Orleans, La.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: NFL+
Live Radio: 106.7 FM (Buccaneers) and WWL (870 AM/105.3 FM) (Saints)

The first of this season’s two NFC South showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints gets under way on Sunday afternoon. There will be a new twist to the game this year, since future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady has retired and been replaced by Baker Mayfield in Tampa. Meanwhile, the Saints also have a new sheriff in town with quarterback Derek Carr a member of this season’s team. Some new faces will make for a great divisional matchup between these two rivals on Sunday.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 4

Moneyline:Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150, New Orleans Saints -170
Spread:Buccaneers +3.5 (-115), Saints +3.5 (-105)

Total:Over/Under 39.5 points

Buccaneers at Saints Preview

Fans expecting to see two new quarterbacks lead the offenses of these rival teams could be in for a surprise. Baker Mayfield will play for the Buccaneers, but the Saints might not be able to go with their new guy, Derek Carr. Instead, New Orleans might have to start Jameis Winston at quarterback, because Carr is questionable for this game after suffering a shoulder injury last weekend at Green Bay. Although Carr’s status is now listed as questionable, it was earlier categorized as a week-to-week situation. If Carr can’t play when this game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, there will still be plenty of drama with Winston going up against the team that once made him the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. While the Saints will likely be without their No. 1 quarterback against Tampa Bay, their No. 1 running back, Alvin Kamara, will be returning to the team after serving a three-game NFL suspension. He is obviously eager to make an impression in his first game of 2023. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, will be looking to get back into the win column after their two-game unbeaten start to the season came crashing down in a humbling 25-11 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.

Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions and NFL Picks Week 4

 The last time quarterback Jameis Winston started an NFL game was back in Week 3 of last year, and the Buccaneers lost that game to the Carolina Panthers 22-14. That was the last of Winston’s three starts in a 2022 NFL season that saw him go 1-2. The week before the Carolina loss, Winston fell to his former team, the Buccaneers, in a 20-10 final. While Winston’s passing ability usually makes him a good bet for the over when he starts, the under was the right call in two of Winston’s three starts last season. Both the New Orleans and Tampa Bay defenses rank among the NFL’s top 10 for fewest points allowed this season. The Buccaneers are tied for ninth -- allowing 19.7 points per game – while the Saints are sixth, allowing 16.7. Although my under senses are tingling for this one, the thought of Winston starting a football game won’t allow me to back the under. The Saints offense is improved and healthy. New Orleans wide receiver Michael Thomas is turning the clock back on his career, Alvin Kamara is returning to lead the backfield, and Winston is going to be slinging the rock for either his own touchdowns or interceptions that will put Tampa Bay in scoring position.

Tampa Bay is coming off their tough test against a great Eagles defense. While the Saints defense has been great this season, too, things will feel a lot easier for Baker Mayfield and this offense in facing New Orleans, as opposed to Philadelphia. Tampa Bay wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will test this Saints secondary for all four quarters, and this total is low enough for these teams to sneak in an over.

The Pick: Over 39.5 (-110)

The Saints will likely roll out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this one, because it seems very unlikely that Derek Carr will be able to play just one week after suffering his shoulder injury. However, even without Carr, the Saints still have the better offense, and they also have the better defense in this game. New Orleans will have their home crowd backing the team in this one, too, so give me the Saints and the spread here.

The Pick: New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)

Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Buccaneers vs. Saints: Sunday Night Football Week 4

Michael Thomas

Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas is healthy and is once again looking like the Michael Thomas NFL fans all know and love. He’s averaging 8.6 targets, which has resulted in about 55.3 receiving yards per game for the 30-year-old veteran. He’ll be catching passes from the team’s backup quarterback on Sunday -- with Jameis Winston looking to air it out at all times. The quarterback situation actually bodes well for Thomas in this matchup. Speaking of matchups, Thomas will be working against Tampa Bay cornerback Carlton Davis, who has been getting exposed this season and will get exposed again on Sunday. Eagles receiver A.J. Brown just went off for nine receptions and 131 yards on a Monday night when Davis was the primary DB guarding him. Expect a season-high day for Thomas on Sunday.

The Pick: Michael Thomas over 52.5 receiving yards (-115)

Best Same-Game Parlay Week 4 bets today for Buccaneers vs. Saints: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+1,100)

Total Points

I’m doubling down on the over in this one. Even though this game involves two good defenses that haven’t allowed many points this season, I expect all of that to crumble in this matchup. “Crumble” might not be the right word because the over/under total is a rather low one. Just a few touchdowns and some decent drives to put kickers Chris McLaughlin and Blake Grupe in field-goal range will be enough to hit this over.

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Over 39.5 (-115)

Michael Thomas

The last time Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas caught passes for more than 80 yards in one game was back in 2020. While he has seen an uptick in targets this season, Thomas has yet to crack 70 yards, and his longest catch went for only 25 yards. As mentioned earlier, Thomas will match up against cornerback Carlton Davis, who has been a liability for this Buccaneers defense. Davis will be a liability for them again on Sunday, so look for Thomas to turn back the clock against Tampa Bay.

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Michael Thomas 80+ receiving yards (+265)

Mike Evans

Even without quarterback Tom Brady, Tampa Bay receiver Mike Evans is still going to be Mike Evans. A walking matchup nightmare for any opposing cornerback, Evans is already off to a great start this season with a touchdown in every game. He is also just shy of 300 receiving yards with 297 on the season so far. On Sunday, he’ll draw a stingy Saints secondary and likely a stingy cornerback in Marshon Lattimore. But even with a tough matchup, Evans will still answer the call, because Baker Mayfield  looks for him all game in every game.

Leg-3 SGP Pick: Mike Evans 80+ receiving yards (+195)

Odds are subject to change* 

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