MNF Bengals vs Jaguars Predictions, Odds, Picks, Props and SGP (+225)
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his best MNF picks today and predictions for Bengals at Jaguars in Week 13 of the NFL 2023 season. Plus, tips on props and SGPs.
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Bengals vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 13
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals +310, Jacksonville Jaguars -400
Spread: Bengals +8.5 (-115), Jaguars -8.5 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 38.5 points
NFL Schedule Week 13 – Game info - Bengals at Jaguars
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
Date: Monday, Dec. 4
Time: 8:15 pm ET
Venue: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla.
TV Channels: ABC, ESPN
Live Stream: FuboTV
Back when the 2023 NFL schedule was drawn up, this game had all the makings of a dream Monday Night Football showdown between two of the AFC’s top teams. Unfortunately, a season-ending injury to Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has made it a far less exciting event.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 seed with an 8-3 record that includes just one loss in their last eight games. Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence has found his mojo, and linebacker Josh Allen is leading the defense by example. Given all of that, could this be Jacksonville’s year?
For the Bengals, life without Joe Burrow has proven to be as hard as anyone who knows this team would expect. While the Jags are aiming for the top spot in the AFC, the Bengals are merely waiting for the 2023 season to finish. It’s not likely that much joy will come their way during this trip to Florida.
Bengals at Jaguars Preview
The vibes are good in Jacksonville these days. An ugly 34-4 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Nov. 12 has been all but forgotten in the wake of a 34-14 win over the Tennessee Titans just one week later and a 24-21 win over the Jags’ pesky division rivals, the Houston Texans, just last week.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for a season-high 364 yards and a touchdown in the game at Houston. He also ran for a TD, giving him three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks. It has been a fantastic couple of games for Lawrence, which is just what the quarterback needed after his no-showing against the 49ers three weeks ago.
Doubts were starting to cloud the football world’s perception of Lawrence, but he made a statement against Houston in proving that he is not yet ready to be surpassed by Texans rookie C.J. Stroud as the top quarterback in the AFC South. Lawrence dished out plenty of passes to his talented receiver corps. Wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, as well as tight end Evan Engram, were all very much involved in the offense.
That’s good news for Jacksonville, because this week’s opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, has allowed an average of 290 passing yards per game over the last three weeks. The Bengals are proving susceptible to big plays, and there are several pass-catchers for them to worry about when it comes to defending against the Jags’ offense.
There is danger in Jacksonville’s ground game, too. Running back Travis Etienne has already surpassed 1,000 total yards from scrimmage this season and has eight touchdowns. The Bengals give up five yards per carry this season, which is the second-worst performance in the league. Etienne hasn’t averaged more than four yards per carry in any of his last six games, but that is more a reflection on his offensive line. Etienne is a home-run threat and will give the Bengals' defense headaches as both a rusher and receiver.
If the Bengals are going to stop the Jaguars from racking up a lot of points, they will need their star defensive players to put the team on their back. Cincinnati defensive end Trey Hendrickson went over the 10-sack mark last week against the Steelers, but he will need to be at his absolute best if he is going to be the Bengals’ difference-maker in this game. The injury to Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson might be just the opening that Hendrickson needs.
Another player who might have been able to influence this game for Cincinnati is Cam Taylor-Britt. The second-year cornerback has been a bright spark in the defense. His four interceptions are tied for second in the league, but an injury kept him out of last week’s game against Pittsburgh. That might be one reason why the Steelers’ offense recorded more than 400 total yards for the first time in 59 games in their 16-10 road win.
On Friday, however, it was reported that Taylor-Britt sprained his ankle in practice and would not play on Monday. The Bengals really could have used him back on the field, particularly if Hendrickson has the sort of game worthy of a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Jaguars also have a player capable of performing at a DPOY-worthy level. Jacksonville linebacker Josh Allen, who has 12 sacks this season, was pivotal in last week’s crucial win over the Texans. In what ended up being just a three-point margin of victory over their division rivals, Allen had 2.5 sacks, four quarterback hits and two tackles-for-loss. He was all over the place last Sunday
Allen will have his eyes trained on Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning this week. The second JB among the Cincinnati quarterbacks is not at the same level as the first, and that drop-off has resulted in only six receptions for star receiver Ja’Marr Chase over the last two weeks. Browning is, unsurprisingly, being kept on a short leash by Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, but putting some faith in Chase could be the best recipe for success.
The Jaguars’ cornerbacks gave up 304 passing yards to Houston rookie QB Stroud last week, and it could have been a lot worse if it weren’t for penalties on a couple of very long passes. Will Browning be allowed to sling a few deep for Chase this week?
Typically, when an NFL team is trying to hide its quarterback, it will lean on the running game. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, the Jaguars are among the best in the league at stopping the run. If the Bengals are going to put up a significant number of points in this game, they will have to come from Browning, which is exactly what the Jaguars' defense is all too happy to anticipate.
Bengals vs. Jaguars Predictions and Picks
The Jaguars' Week 13 matchup is much easier than their coaching staff likely expected it to be at the beginning of the season. With their eyes trained on the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoff race and their home crowd behind them, the Jags should have no problem dispatching the Bengals on Monday night.
Indeed, in several ways, this is a dream matchup for Jacksonville. Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has been excellent with his passing performance in recent weeks, and wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, along with tight end Evan Engram, are an elite group of weapons. Only two teams have given up more passing yards over the past three weeks than the Bengals, so it is wheels-up for Jaguars’ passing game.
The Bengals also concede the second-most yards per carry when it comes to defending against opposition ground games, so Jacksonville running back Travis Etienne could be in for a big day, too.. The Jaguars should find success in whatever they throw at the Bengals on Monday Night Football, and I will be taking them to cover.
The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 (-115)
While I don’t see Cincinnati QB Jake Browning having an enjoyable Monday Night Football experience, there are enough playmakers on the Bengals to put together a few scoring drives. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has the potential to rip off a big play at any time, and the return of Tee Higgins gives quarterback Jake Browning another talented target. The Jaguars gave up 300 passing yards to Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud last week, and I could see them yielding one or two big plays to Chase and Co. The Bengals won’t threaten the Jags, but they will scrape together enough scoring drives to help us beat the 38.5 total.
I expect the Jaguars to put up a big total at home, so it won’t take much from the Bengals to beat the over, which feels like a good bet to me.
The Pick: Over 38.5 points (-115)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets for Bengals vs. Jaguars Today
This is a beauty of a bet. The Bengals are begging to be passed on in the middle of the field, giving up the NFL’s second-most yards to the tight end position. Their 779 yards conceded to TEs are 89 more than the team behind them in third place. They gave up 120 yards to Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth last week, and he had only managed a total of 60 yards in his five other games.
The Steelers decided to attack Cincinnati through Freiermuth, and the Jags could certainly choose to do the same with Evan Engram. Smash the over on this one.
The Bengals would love to ride their running backs and hide Jake Browning, but it just isn’t going to happen. Not only do the Jaguars boast an elite run-stopping defensive line, but they should have no problem getting an early lead. As a result, expect the Bengals to abandon the ground game, just as they did last week when running back Joe Mixon had only eight carries. Mixon averaged just two yards per carry in that game against Pittsburgh, and he won’t enjoy running against a Jacksonville defense that is giving up the league’s fourth-fewest rushing yards.
Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Bengals vs. Jaguars Week 13: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+225)
Leg 2: Over 37.5 points (-115)
Odds are subject to change*
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