TNF picks: Bengals vs Ravens Predictions, Props and SGP (+1900)
Alex Buck makes his TNF picks and predictions for Bengals at Ravens in Week 11 of the NFL 2023 season.
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Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Bengals vs. Ravens Week 11: 4-Leg Parlay Pick (+1900)
Leg-2: Over 46.5 Points (-115)
NFL Schedule Week 11 – Game info - Bengals at Ravens
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Date: Thursday, Nov. 16
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md.
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Live Stream: FuboTV
The Week 11 Thursday Night Football game will showcase a pivotal AFC North matchup when the Cincinnati Bengals visit Baltimore to take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
Despite their 5-4 record, the Bengals are currently at the bottom of the highly competitive division, although all four AFC North teams remain in contention for playoff spots. The Bengals are two games behind the first-place Ravens and one behind both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, so Thursday night’s result will undoubtedly have a huge impact on Cincinnati’s playoff hopes.
The Bengals will enter this game knowing that they really need to even the score with Baltimore after losing to the Ravens 27-24 at home in Week 2. However, this is a very different Bengals team than the one that played Baltimore nine weeks ago. Cincinnati is healthier and really starting to jell, so this rematch is likely to feel very different from the teams’ earlier meeting.
Bengals vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 11
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals +150, Baltimore Ravens -188
Spread: Bengals +3.5 (-105), Ravens -3.5 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 46.5 points
Bengals vs. Ravens Preview
This is an intriguing matchup between two teams that have improved a lot during the 2023 season. The Bengals’ offense, which struggled early on, is now looking better with quarterback Joe Burrow back at full strength. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense has done well of late in holding both the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions to single-digit point totals at M&T Bank Stadium.
So, who will come out on top Thursday night? The teams are 2-2 against each other over their last four meetings, but Baltimore was missing quarterback Lamar Jackson in each of the two games it lost. Jackson will now go toe-to-toe with Bengals QB Joe Burrow on primetime TV – a real treat for the neutral fans who tune into this very important game.
Burrow has regained his traditional form in recent weeks, having thrown seven touchdown passes over his last three games. His lingering calf injury that stunted the Bengals’ offense in the season’s opening weeks is now a thing of the past, and the Bengals appear to be back on track as they pursue a third straight trip to the playoffs.
Despite their overall improvement, the Bengals lost a 30-27 shootout to the Houston Texans and rookie phenom QB C.J. Stroud last Sunday, and that setback in the wake of four straight wins brought them to 5-4 on the season. Stroud had a field day, throwing for 356 yards against Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense -- something that rarely happens.
Burrow was missing wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring injury) for the Texans game, and Higgins is expected to be out again on Thursday night. In his absence, and as is often the case, Tyler Boyd stepped up, catching eight passes for 117 yards in his team’s hard-fought loss.
Burrow also seems to have found a reliable target in tight end Tanner Hudson, who will almost certainly set a new career-high for receiving yards in his first season with the Bengals. Hudson had six catches for 33 yards against the Texans, and it seems Burrow now favors him over fellow TE Irv Smith, who signed with the team as a free agent last March.
The Bengals’ offense will need to be in top form on the road if Cincinnati wants to win this game, but this matchup presents yet another tough challenge for Anarumo and Co. It’s no secret that the Bengals’ defense got a lot younger and lost some experience in the offseason, and so far this season, Cincinnati is allowing opponents almost 250 passing yards per game. This unit will continue to improve as the year goes on, but is it ready for Jackson and Baltimore’s other offensive weapons?
The Ravens’ new-look offense has shown some real promise this season, and with each passing week, Baltimore appears to be ironing out the kinks. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s style is completely different from his predecessor’s, and there have certainly been some growing pains, but the Ravens are scoring 27 points per game and are supported by an excellent defense.
Baltimore’s improvement can be seen in its red-zone efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Ravens rank fourth in scoring efficiency on offense in the red zone, converting 64 percent of their trips there into touchdowns. Defensively, Baltimore allows just 35 percent of its opponents’ red-zone opportunities to become touchdowns. That gives the Ravens an edge over all other teams at this point in the season.
The Ravens are 7-3, and explosive plays are becoming more common for Baltimore. Undrafted rookie running back Keaton Mitchell has emerged as a key contributor, and he is already one of the team’s most dangerous playmakers. Mitchell has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games, and he has the speed and burst to break away from the line and open up the game for Jackson and the rest of the offense.
Last Sunday, fans saw an old-school version of Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. He took a slant to the house for a touchdown in a way that was very reminiscent of those highlight reels from when he was a younger player with the New York Giants.
Baltimore is loaded with options on offense, and trying to account for Jackson both as a passer and a runner -- while also managing the threat of receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, as well as tight end Mark Andrews -- is a tall task for any defense.
Bengals vs. Ravens Predictions and Pick
The Baltimore Ravens’ defense is giving up only 15.7 points per game this season, and only 14.6 at home. The team’s performances against the Lions and Seahawks proved that its defense can completely stonewall opponents, and Cincinnati won’t have any room for error in a game the Bengals really need to win.
This game will come down to the Bengals’ efficiency on third downs and their ability to outplay quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. Cincinnati converts 37 percent of its third-down situations, but that number will likely be lower against one of the league's best defenses. The Bengals need to overcome that potential issue on Thursday night.
Baltimore has the edge here, and I predict the Ravens will come out on top. Jackson has a 2-0 record in his last two starts against Cincinnati, and the Bengals’ defense has recently lost some key players with experience. While I don't think the Bengals will miss the playoffs, I see this week as a kind of lesson for them.
Although I believe Baltimore will win, I expect a close game, and the Bengals won’t be out of it at any point. A fourth-quarter showdown is a real possibility, so if I can get the Bengals at +3.5 and take the field-goal margin of victory, I’m happy to do so.
The first Bengals-Ravens meeting ended with a three-point differential, and these teams know each other well. I’ll back the same outcome here in Baltimore.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (-105)
Baltimore and Cincinnati have combined for an average of 60 points over their last three games. The Bengals had a slow start to the season, but they have averaged 27 points per game in this recent three-game stretch.
While Baltimore performed superbly against the Seahawks and Lions, the Ravens allowed 33 points in last Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns. That creates an opportunity for the Bengals to put some points on the board, and in terms of the potential entertainment factor, I hope they do.
The Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-115)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets: Bengals vs. Ravens
The Ravens’ 21-year-old rookie running back has made a real case for himself in the last couple of weeks, impressing enough at practice to earn genuine opportunities in regular-season games.
Mitchell has found the end zone in consecutive games, and I wouldn't be shocked if his role expands in the coming weeks. Given his size, however, he might not become a high-volume runner. At 5-foot-9 and 191 pounds, he is considered undersized for an NFL back, so it's unlikely we will see him get 20 carries up the middle. However, Mitchell does know how to find the sideline in a hurry and turn on the jets as he heads downfield.
Cincinnati allows 136 rushing yards per game, and its defense has been struggling at the second level all season. The Bengals have the NFL’s third-worst run defense, so I’m backing Mitchell to get into the end zone for a third straight week at +200.
The Bengals’ defense has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks this season. Buffalo’s Josh Allen had 44 rushing yards against Cincinnati, while San Francisco’s Brock Purdy had 57, and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson posted 45. In the season’s earlier game between the Bengals and Ravens, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson ran for 57 yards.
Jackson’s rushing line is set at 44.5 yards for this game, and I think he will clear it against this Bengals defense.
The Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Odds are subject to change*
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