NFL betting: Best player props for week 16
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his player prop picks for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season, with four best bets for Saturday's Christmas Eve games.
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Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today for Sunday Football Week 16
Deshaun Watson
Quarterback Deshaun Watson has certainly looked rusty in his first three games of the 2022-23 NFL season, which makes sense considering he hasn’t played football in nearly two years. While he’s started to show flashes of his old self, he’s yet to put together a complete game.
That changes on Saturday against New Orleans Saints. While running back Kareem Hunt will carry a majority of the run game with Nick Chubb out, I believe that Watson will see a slight increase in some designed runs to attack a Saints run defense who ranks 23rd in the NFL.
In his three games back, Watson has averaged 189.3 passing yards and 25.3 rushing yards on at least six attempts per game. This is also the last start Watson will make in front of the Browns home crowd until next season and I expect him to give them something to cheer about. You can also take Watson’s over in passing completions as well.
The Pick: Deshaun Watson passing + receiving yards over 188.5 (-110)
Ja’Marr Chase
Since returning from a hip injury, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been targeted 36 times over three games for 276 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll now draw a New England Patriots defense that allows 202 passing yards per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL.
If you do a deeper dive into Chase’s matchup, though, he will likely come up against cornerback Jalen Mills, who’s been battling a groin injury. For someone recovering from that injury, covering a wide receiver with 4.3 speed is a problem waiting to happen. Look out for Joe Burrow picking on Mills all day on Saturday as Chase will have a huge game.
If Mills isn’t able to go on Saturday, expect cornerback Myles Bryant to cover. He would be no match for him either. Take the over in Chase’s yards here and don’t be shocked if he scores, too. Despite missing four games this season, Chase still leads all Bengals wide receivers in red zone targets with 23, including eight over the past three weeks.
The Pick: Ja’Marr Chase over 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
Derrick Henry
The Tennessee Titans have endured the most injuries for a single team this season and have lost four straight, but will look to right the ship against the Houston Texans.
The Texans played both the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas Chiefs right to the wire these past two weeks, but their run defense couldn’t even compete in a pillow fight. They’ll now draw one of the best running backs in the NFL in Derrick Henry, whose sole focus is to get this Titans team back on track.
Throughout that nine-game losing streak, the Texans have allowed a running back to score at least one touchdown on eight different occasions. That includes multiple running backs scoring two or more touchdowns, including a Derrick Henry two touchdown game in week eight. It’s a great bet that Henry gets into the endzone.
The Pick: Derrick Henry anytime touchdown scorer (-150)
Brock Purdy
Since making his first start against the Miami Dolphins in week 13, quarterback Brock Purdy has not only won every game, but has thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of those contests.
He’ll now draw an eighth-ranked Washington Commanders pass defense that allows 197.2 passing yards to opposing defenses. They haven't allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for more than two passing touchdowns since week 10, where Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 17 of 26 passes for 175 yards and two passing touchdowns.
But though Washington’s secondary will pose a test for Purdy, he’s faced the best defense every single week in practice for the entire regular season. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will have Purdy ready to go and ready to continue his two game passing touchdown streak. Keep riding the wave and the plus money.
