NFL betting picks: Best bets for Chargers vs Chiefs
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions for Chiefs vs Chargers in Week 2, including his best bets and player props.
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Chargers vs Chiefs Predictions – NFL Week 2 Picks
The Los Angeles Chargers head to Arrowhead on Thursday night in what’s expected to be an instant classic, as quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes face each other for the fifth time in the NFL. In the four matchups between Herbert and Mahomes, they’ve split at an even 2-2 and the over/under has gone 2-2 as well.
Even with star wide receiver Keenan Allen ruled out of Thursday night’s game with a hamstring injury, I still expect this to be a high-scoring affair. Kansas City’s defense holds a lot of question marks, especially in their secondary, so even though the Chargers will be without Allen, Herbert will still have enough with his current weapons.
On the other side of the football, the Chargers defense poses a threat to this high total as they made it a point to make the unit significantly better this offseason. After adding superstar edge rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson, along with key complementary pieces in defensive tackles Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, and slot corner Bryce Callahan, this Chargers defense is ready for any opposing offense.
Chargers vs Chiefs Odds, Over/Under, Moneyline - Week 2
I love this Chargers defense, and I think they will give Kansas City a hard time in Week 11 at home. But here in Week 2, on the road at Arrowhead, where they still can’t cover opposing tight ends and they draw the best tight end in football in Travis Kelce, take the over. I expect this game to be a good ole’ fashion shootout.
The Pick: Chargers/Chiefs over 54.5 (-105)
Every team always wants to get on the board first. Even if they elect to defer, they still want to stop that opposing offense three times, force a punt, get the ball back and score.
In the four matchups between Mahomes and Herbert, the two have each scored first twice. But in all four matchups, the Chargers have led every time at halftime. Although they were 8-9 against the spread in 2021-22, the Chargers led in 10 games at the half. As for 2020-21, the Chargers went 9-7 ATS in the first half, and in Herbert’s 15 starts, they led 10 times at the half as well.
The Pick: Chargers First Half ML (+155)
Best Chargers vs Chiefs Player Prop Bets
The Chargers gave up the most yards and second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season. After one week of this NFL season, the Chargers defense doesn’t seem to have improved as they currently rank fourth in yards against opposing tight ends.
As for Kelce, not only did he lead all receivers in Week 1 for Kansas City with 121 yards, but he did so against the number one opposing defense against tight ends last season in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals, who returned the majority of their pass defense, ranked fourth in yards allowed and were the best defense in touchdowns allowed last season, allowing just two to opposing tight ends. Not only do I love Kelce to score in this matchup, I love his receiving yards prop of over 75.5 yards, too.
With the exception of his rookie season in 2017 – when he barely played – Williams has absolutely owned Kansas City. And with Keenan Allen dealing with a hamstring injury, expect Williams to be the focal point of the Chargers passing attack on Thursday night.
He’ll likely face a mixture of cornerback Rashad Fenton and Jaylen Watson, who allowed a pedestrian group of wide receivers to all put up some decent numbers against them. The second-year wide receiver out of Wake Forest, Greg Dortch caught seven receptions for 63 yards, while Marquise Brown caught four receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. Look for Mike Williams to absolutely pick apart this weak Chiefs secondary as not only do I think he’ll find the end zone but he’ll also fly over an extremely generous low total of over 63.5 receiving yards.