NFL picks: Best bets for Week 15
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his football picks and predictions for Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season, with five best bets for Sunday.
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NFL Week 15 Best Bets for Sunday Games Today
Cowboys vs Jaguars Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 15
Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys (-200), Jacksonville Jaguars (+165)
Spread: Dallas Cowboys 3.5, Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Total: Over/Under 47.5 points
Cowboys vs Jaguars Predictions and Pick
The Houston Texans were on the verge of their biggest upset in three-plus seasons when they had the Dallas Cowboys on the ropes last Sunday. Leading 23-20 on the Cowboys goal line, the Texans got stopped four times for a turnover on downs. The Cowboys then completed an 11-play, 98-yard drive, which ended in a two-yard Ezekiel Elliott touchdown, giving the Cowboys a 27-23 lead with 41 seconds remaining. Dallas would then force an interception and escape what would’ve been a terrible upset.
The Cowboys will now travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game where they will look to pick up on where they left off back in Week 13, when they scored 33 points in the fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts.
Dallas got some encouraging news this week as All-Pro offensive lineman Tyron Smith will start. Smith, the long time left tackle who has protected quarterback Dak Prescott’s blindside for his entire career, will make the transition to right tackle this Sunday and, according to reports out of practice, he has made the transition look effortless. Smith’s return to the lineup will not only boost the Cowboys' top-10 rushing attack, but will help improve their middle-of-the-road passing attack.
Although the Texans had the Cowboys team on the ropes, with Tyron Smith returning this game won’t even be close on Sunday as the Jaguars, who rank 29th in sacks per game, will struggle to create any pressure. They will be no match for this stout Dallas offensive line.
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-120)
Eagles vs Bears Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 15
Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles (-400), Chicago Bears (+310)
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -8.5, Chicago Bears +8.5
Total: Over/Under 48.5 points
Eagles vs Bears Predictions and Pick
The Philadelphia Eagles have been red hot this season as they sit at 12-1 and are two games ahead of any other team for the best record in the NFL. They’ll draw a struggling Chicago Bears team, who are dead last in the NFC at 3-10, with the expectation being another blowout win.
The Bears will look to play spoiler as they had a much needed bye last week and got their starting quarterback Justin Fields back and fully healthy. Fields, who missed time with a separated non-throwing shoulder and an illness, has made a full recovery and will be 100 percent on Sunday. While the Bears' record shows last place in the NFC, that isn't a true reflection of how good they are. Taking away the game that Fields missed against the New York Jets and his first game back against the Packers, this Bears team has come close in their recent losses, losing by three to the Atlanta Falcons, by one to the Detroit Lions and by three again to the Miami Dolphins in Week 9.
They’ll now face an Eagles team that’s third in the NFL in yards per game with an average of 392, and a defense that allows the NFL's second-fewest yards per game, with an average of 297. You can call this a David vs. Goliath matchup, but the Bears will keep it close. The Eagles have really opened up their offense with quarterback Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat ability, as teams have struggled with his mobility. Despite ranking 27th in the NFL in rush yards per game, with an average of 146.3, this Bears defense is used to defending a dual-threat quarterback in practice every week. If you peel the onion back a bit more on the Bears' struggling rush defense, you’ll see that it’s mostly running backs that do the damage, not quarterbacks.
The Eagles rank 30th in pass play percentage as they’re a clear-cut, run-first team. They’ll certainly establish the run in this game through running back Miles Sanders, but the Bears will be ready for Hurts to try to create plays with his feet, and will stop him. The Bears will need a miracle to pull the outright upset, but in what looks to be a bad weather game, they’ll keep it close enough to cover the spread.
The Pick: Chicago Bears +8.5 (-105)
Bengals vs Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 15
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals (-181), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150)
Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Total: Over/Under 44.5 points
Bengals vs Buccaneers Predictions and Pick
The first two weeks of the season for these teams were night and day, as the Cincinnati Bengals started 0-2, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers started 2-0. Fast forward to Week 15 and they are on opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Bengals enter this matchup at 9-4 and the Buccaneers at 6-7.
While both defenses have been middle of the road statistically across the board, they’ve both had games this season where they let the opposing offenses get going. As for offense, the Bengals come into this game averaging 25.8 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NFL. The Buccaneers are averaging 17.2 points per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL, a category in which they were second in last year at averaged 30.1 points per game.
In a game in which most are expecting defense and more struggling offense from this Tampa Bay team, I’m expecting the opposite, with the Buccaneers geting it going in their second-to-last home game and firing the cannons. The Bengals' offense will continue to thrive against a defense that only looks decent on paper because they have only faced five top-15 offenses this season. Don’t get fooled by the statistics on this one. Give me the over in a high-scoring affair between Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.
The Pick: Over 44.5 (-105)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Sunday Football Week 15
Jalen Hurts
I expect the Bears to spy and stop Hurts from being able to escape the pocket, which will force him to throw more. Hurts can throw the deep ball but tends to throw more intermediate passes. According to Pro Football reference, Hurts’ completed air yards per completion is 6.3 yards, the lowest in his career. However, his accuracy is 79.7 percent, which is a career high. In 13 games this season, Hurts has exceeded 19.5 passing completions six times and has been just short of that number four times. Give me the over on his passing completions this Sunday.
The Pick: Jalen Hurts over 19.5 passing completions (-110)
Tom Brady
The Bengals' defense allows only 20.4 points per game to opposing offenses, which ranks 11th in the NFL, and the only quarterback to throw for more than one passing touchdown against them this season was Baker Mayfield. However, this is still Tom Brady that we’re talking about here, and despite their offensive struggles this season, Tampa Tom has thrown for two passing touchdowns in three of his last four games. I like this trend to continue, as anyone who just faced the San Francisco 49ers is going to find their next opposing defense a cake walk.
