NFL betting picks: Best bets for Bengals vs Patriots
Alex Buck makes his NFL picks and predictions for Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots in NFL Week 16, plus best tips on moneyline and over/under betting lines.
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NFL Schedule Week 16 - Bengals @ Patriots
2022 NFL Regular Season Game
Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) vs. New England Patriots (7-7)
Date: Saturday 24th December
Time: 1:00 pm EST
Venue: Gilette Stadium - Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: FuboTV/NFL+
Live Radio: Sirius XM
Bengals vs Patriots Preview
The Cincinnati Bengals are on a six-game win streak and finally in control of the AFC North as a result. The Bengals' unsteady start to the 2022 football season has been long forgotten amid their dominant run over the last several weeks. The only slip-up the Bengals have managed in their last nine games was a loss back in Week 8 against the Cleveland Browns. Outside of that, eight wins in nine games makes for intense momentum with the playoffs just three games away.
The Bengals have been chasing down the Baltimore Ravens for multiple weeks, and finally overtook them in Week 15. The Ravens have been struggling with injuries including quarterback Lamar Jackson and multiple offensive weapons, killing their momentum. The Bengals are going the other way, getting Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon back in plenty of time for the postseason.
Bengals vs Patriots Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 16
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals -165, New England Patriots +135
Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, New England Patriots +3.5
Total: Over/Under 41.5
The Bengals have clawed their way into the top spot in the AFC North and are therefore not going to want to surrender that position easily. Not only that, Joe Burrow and co. are also in contention for the number one seed in the AFC, just one game behind the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
That becomes even more important when you consider the fact that the Bengals have a head-to-head advantage over the Chiefs, and will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 17. Any kind of slip-up or game dropped by the Chiefs in the final three games would open a window of opportunity for the Bengals to catch them, and if they then beat the Bills and win out the rest of the season, the No. 1 seed would be theirs.
For any of that to become a reality, the Bengals need to take care of business against Bill Belichick’s Patriots in Foxborough.
Cincinnati got off to a slow start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday with a poor first-half performance that saw them 17-3 behind at half time. Tom Brady was able to pick on the Bengals secondary that has now lost both Mike Hilton and Chidobe Awuzie and with that their pro experience. Rookie safety Dax Hill and corner Cam Taylor-Britt both started, and Mike Evans proved a nuisance in the early going against an inexperienced group.
That said, Cincinnati's second-half turnaround, particularly on defense, represented that of a playoff football team. The Bengals were able to nullify the threat of Tom Brady and force four turnovers in the game, resulting in an eventual 34 unanswered Bengals points.
Joe Burrow threw for 200 yards and four touchdowns in a clunky game all around, but one the Bengals were able to fight their way out of and win. That was however not without sacrifice, with both Sam Hubbard and Cam Taylor-Britt suffering injuries that ruled them out of the game.
Taylor-Britt is expected to return to the lineup in time for the Week 16 game, while Sam Hubbard was not so fortunate. The defensive end suffered a calf injury that will likely keep him out for several weeks, causing concern for the Bengals pass rush that is already short Trey Hendrickson.
Cincinnati will need to rely on their depth to pressure Mac Jones, who didn’t exactly have a great day on Sunday with the Patriots offense.
New England stumbled their way into a tight game with the Las Vegas Raiders at the weekend, with no thanks to the passing game. Jones was visibly frustrated once again with what appeared to be the playcalling and offensive coordinator Matt Patricia's game plan. Jones completed just 42 per cent of his passes against the Raiders, totaling 13/39 for 112 yards and no touchdowns.
The star of the show was running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who stepped up and carried the Patriots offense on multiple occasions, finishing the game with 172 rushing yards and a touchdown that kept them firmly in the game. Stevenson is proving to be a valuable asset and one that can give the offense an identity amid its struggles in the pass game.
New England's only other touchdown of the game came on an interception from Kyle Dugger that he took back for six.
Duggers’ contribution is quite fitting for a team that has depended on its defensive performances throughout the 2022 season. It’s been a turbulent year for the offense with Jones being sat for rookie Bailey Zappe for a few weeks before returning to the lineup. They have no out-and-out number-one pass threat down the field and a lackluster playbook. However, they do find themselves just one game out of the playoffs despite a season of chaotic adversity.
Jones needs an elite receiver who he can go to when he needs an outlet. Jakobi Meyers leads the team in receiving with 640 yards, but would greatly benefit from another receiver on the field who might warrant significant attention.
That might be ideal but it won’t happen this season. For now, the Patriots will focus on controlling what they can control and remaining in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.
Bengals vs Patriots Predictions and NFL Picks Week 16
The Bengals struggled for a full half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and still managed to score 34 points and win the game by 11 points. The Bucs have traveled a similar path to the Patriots this season, with inconsistencies and frustrations on offense all season long. Eventually, those inconsistencies lead to opportunities for the opponent, and you don’t need to give Joe Burrow too many of those before he takes advantage.
If Jones and the Patriots play as ineffectively as they did for the majority of their game against the Raiders, they could find themselves too far behind with too little time left on the clock. The key for New England is going to be Rhamondre Stevenson and the run game, but the Bengals are no slouch against inside runs.
This one feels like a Bengals win, and at 3.5 points, I’ll take them to cover the spread too.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)
While I believe in the Bengals pulling away and winning the game, I don’t expect it to be particularly high scoring. If the Patriots want to win the game, they will need to establish the run and reduce the number of opportunities they give to Joe Burrow and co., meaning longer drives and less possessions for both sides.
The Bengals are capable of pulling away, but I’d be surprised to see them drop 30+ points on a Patriots defense that only allows 19 points per game. I’ll go for the under, but an early Bengals run of scoring might make it a little tight.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots Under 41.5 Points (-110)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Saturday Afternoon Football Week 16
The Patriots need to run their offense through Rhamondre Stevenson. They don’t have a passing game right now that can compete with that of Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Cincinnati have an elite group of offensive weapons and trying to match those scoring drives without taking time off the clock will likely end in disaster.
Stevenson should end up with 20+ carries if that’s to be the case, and while the Bengals won’t make it easy for him to run up the middle, Stevenson does have the ability to break a tackle and add yards after contact.
The Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Mac Jones and the Patriots passing game have a lot to figure out before they land on the same page. Last weekends game against the Raiders was ugly. Receivers not in the right spots, Mac Jones frustrated with the playcalling and rightly so with very little imagination or variety that might lead to guys getting open.
Jones has only thrown more than one touchdown in a game once this season in the loss to Minnesota, who have one of the most simple defenses to read in the NFL. I can’t see Mac getting two here, so I’ll take the under on 1.5 passing touchdowns.
