Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction, Odds and SGP Picks (+260)
Alex Buck makes his NCAAF picks and predictions for Ohio State at Michigan State in CFB Week 13. Plus, best tips on SGPs.
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College Football Schedule Week 13 – Game info - Ohio State at Michigan State College Football Season 2023
Ohio State (11-0, 5-0 Away) vs. Michigan (11-0, 5-0 Home)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 25
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Venue: Michigan Stadium at Ann Arbor, Mich.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: FuboTV
Live Radio: WBNS-FM/AM (97.1/1460)
This is unquestionably one of the biggest sporting events of the year if you happen to live in Ohio or Michigan. Head coach Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes will travel to Michigan Stadium to take on coach Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines on Saturday in the next edition of college football’s most famous rivalry. Both teams boast unbeaten 11-0 records, and tensions will be high because the winner of this game is all but guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Over the past 10 years, Ohio State has dominated this game, but Michigan will be the more confident team at home on Saturday, since the Wolverines have won each of their last two showdowns with the Buckeyes. Those back-to-back wins came after Ohio State had beaten Michigan eight consecutive times between 2012 and 2019. However, in the past two years, the Wolverines prevailed by 15- and 22-poiint margins. Can Michigan make it three in a row?
Ohio State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline - College Football Odds Week 13
Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes +140, Michigan Wolverines -170
Spread: Ohio State +3 -(105), Michigan -3 (-115)
Total: Over/Under 46.5 points
Ohio State at Michigan Preview
There is no love lost between Michigan and Ohio State. In a game that will showcase the nation’s top two defenses, the slimmest of margins will likely determine the outcome. Who can win the battle in the trenches, and who has the discipline to do a better job of limiting takeaways?
With ball protection of paramount importance, and both defenses sitting atop the statistical charts, it makes sense to start any analysis of this game by focusing on the opposing quarterbacks. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Ohio State’s Kyle McCord have each been intercepted four times this season, but McCord gets the matchup edge from a yardage (2,899 vs. 2,335) and touchdowns (22 vs. 18) perspective. However, this is McCord’s first season as OSU’s starter, so his ability to perform well in front of a hostile Michigan crowd is unknown.
McCarthy has already proven himself on the big stage. The Wolverines quarterback handled the Buckeyes’ defense in Ohio State’s own building last year, throwing for 263 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for a TD as Michigan beat OSU in convincing fashion. Now, he’ll have the benefit of playing in front of his home crowd, and those Wolverines fans know what to expect from their quarterback. If a mistake is going to come from one of these signal-callers, McCord is the player more likely to make it.
McCord’s main advantage heading into this game is an elite array of offensive weapons. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. might be the best player in college football, and fellow wideout Emeka Egbuka will likely also be selected early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The superstar receiving duo’s showdown with Michigan’s No. 1-rated pass defense will be box-office quality entertainment on Saturday. The Wolverines allow just 144.8 passing yards per game, as DB Mike Sainristil leads a secondary that has picked off 14 passes this year. It is certainly an elite unit, but even one misstep against those two OSU receivers could result in a house call.
Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson headline a group of Michigan receivers who can also cause headaches for opponents. Both players are averaging more than 16 yards per reception, and Wilson has snagged 10 touchdowns. The star of the show for Michigan’s offense, however, is senior running back Blake Corum, who has rushed for 888 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season.
Ohio State is not quite as stingy when it comes to giving up yards on the ground. The Buckeyes rank 21st in the country in that department, and they can expect to see a lot of Corum on Saturday. The Wolverines’ star running back had 28 carries and two touchdowns last weekend, helping Michigan grind out a 31-24 win at Maryland.
Michigan’s past dependence on the run will not necessarily carry over to this game, because both teams will be hiding their plans in the lead-up to the big game. Nevertheless, Corum is one of the most exciting players in college football and will be a crucial factor in this one. His opposite number, Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson, is also enjoying an excellent season. He has averaged 6.7 yards per carry in 2023 while ringing up 794 yards and 10 touchdowns. Henderson missed a few weeks with an injury but has returned to full health and should be primed and ready to go on a day when running the ball will be so important. The team that can establish the ground game and enable itself to run a balanced offense will likely have an advantage on Saturday.
Offensive players won’t be the only ones looking to steal the headlines in this game. Michigan’s defensive ends Jaylen Harrell and Josaiah Stewart have 10 sacks between them and will be determined to unsettle McCord. Meanwhile, Ohio State defensive end JT Tuimoloau, who has posted 30 tackles and four sacks this year, will be a handful for Michigan’s offensive line. Michigan’s defense has 27 total sacks this season, compared to Ohio State's 21. Since McCord is unproven in big games like this one, the Michigan defensive line might just provide the spark that leads the Wolverines to victory.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick
What a beautiful matchup this is. It feels like these teams have an infinite number of offensive playmakers, but those skill guys will be tested by the two best defenses in the country. Michigan has given up only 99 points this season, the nation’s lowest total, but Ohio State is right behind the Wolverines in having allowed just 102. The next closest team is Iowa at 136. Clearly, when it comes to defense, these teams are in a league of their own, and every play is going to be crucial.
With so much on the line, I will be leaning toward Michigan, and since the spread is so small, I will also take the Wolverines to cover. They have defeated Ohio State by more than two scores in their last two showdowns, and I trust Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy more than OSU’s Kyle McCord. McCarthy has already beaten the Buckeyes once, and this time he will benefit from having a home crowd behind him. I think Michigan is going to make it three wins in a row over their bitter rivals.
The Pick: Michigan -3 (-120)
Although these two defenses are the best in the country, I will be taking the over in this game. The last time these teams failed to combine for more than 50 points was back in 2012 when a final score of 26-21 gave us 47. There are going to be some true stars on the field on Saturday, and the defenses will be tested in ways that go far beyond the capabilities of other Big Ten opponents. Moving the ball will be hard, but both teams should be able to put enough drives together to help us get past the 46.5 total.
The Pick: Ohio State vs Michigan over 46.5 points (-120)
Best College Football Same Game Parlay Picks today for Ohio State vs. Michigan: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+260)
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