Final Four picks: UConn vs Miami Same Game Parlay (+280)
Alex Buck reveals his two-leg Same Game Parlay for UConn vs Miami in the Final Four of 2023 March Madness.
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The 2023 NCAAB tournament Final Four looks set to be a great evening of college basketball, and right now the favorites are the high-flying UConn Huskies. Let's take a look at the best college basketball parlay picks for the game this weekend.
The second match-up of the two on Saturday features the Huskies, who are now the tournament's highest remaining seed at No. 4. They’ll face the five-seed Miami Hurricanes, who are making their first appearance in the Final Four in school history after a comeback win against the Texas Longhorns.
UConn are currently considered to be the favorite to go all the way, with -137 odds on Betway Sportsbook, but they will first have to get through the ‘Canes to make it to Monday’s final.
The Huskies have breezed through the tournament to this point, with a +90 scoring margin against the four opponents they faced. Their Elite Eight matchup with Gonzaga marked the largest of those win margins, qualifying for the Final Four with an 82-54 dismantling of the Bulldogs.
The win made a statement that they were absolutely the team to beat, and one of the three remaining programs will have to overcome them if they want to claim the 2023 title as their own. These are my NCAAB picks and predictions for the game.
Uconn vs Miami Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - Final Four betting lines 4/1
Moneyline: UConn -255, Miami +180
Spread: -5.5, Miami +5.5
Total: Over/Under 149.5
What else will happen?
Odds total points -130
Overtime played +1000
Even total points -105
Best College Basketball Same Game Parlay Picks Today for UConn vs Miami - Final Four Round: 2-Leg Parlay Picks (+280)
Against the Spread
I’m starting off the NCAAB picks and parlays today with a spread bet. In the previous four games of the tournament, both teams have successfully covered the spread. Therefore, in this Final Four contest, one team's streak is bound to end.
The Miami Hurricanes have been the underdog in their last three, including overcoming an eight-point pre-game line against No. 1 seed Houston to win 89-75 in the Sweet 16. Despite falling behind in the Texas game, their confidence remained high. They staged a second-half rally and managed to come back, eventually advancing to the Final Four where they will face UConn.
Miami were down by eight at the half, but a 51-point second-half display of superb shooting got them over the line. That performance was led by guard Jordan Miller, who was a perfect seven-for-seven from the floor, the first time that’s happened at the tournament since Christian Laettner did it at Duke.
Miller added a perfect 13-for-13 from the free throw line, resulting in a flawless performance for a team-high 27 points on the night.
One of the keys to their win was their ability to play physical and get to the line. The ‘Canes shot 32 free throws and made 28 of those while only allowing the Longhorns to shoot 15 free throws of their own.
The UConn Huskies, on the contrary, have managed to synchronize their efforts at the ideal moment. Although they have faced disapproval for their March performances in past years, it would be challenging to identify any flaws in their performance this season. Dominating Gonzaga with a staggering 28-point lead could be considered the most significant victory of the tournament, as they maintained a 20+ point lead for the majority of the second half.
The Huskies controlled the game on both ends of the floor, with Alex Sanogo recording a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds. Despite the Zags attempting to double-team him throughout the game, UConn effectively dismantled this strategy, and it ultimately did not yield the desired results.
UConn pose a far more dangerous threat to the Miami Hurricanes than Texas did. The Huskies are physical, and Sanogo is a presence inside at both ends of the court. I would be very surprised to see Miami get to the line with the same frequency they did in the Elite Eight Round, totaling 32 attempts. They’ll also face interior pressure from the Huskies on their own end too.
It's impossible for me to overlook UConn's recent dominating performance and their ability to demolish Gonzaga with such ferocity. Therefore, I anticipate that the Huskies covering the spread again here. Their track record of 25-11-1 ATS this season, including four victories at the tournament and five covers in their previous six games, reinforces my prediction. Additionally, UConn has a commendable 8-1 record in Final Four appearances, indicating their proficiency in this stage of the competition.
Leg-1 SGP Pick: Connecticut -5.5 (-115)
Total Points: Over/Under
The Huskies shot 31 three-pointers against Gonzaga, making 11 of them for a 35.5 per cent shooting night that saw them advance to the Elite Eight. Miami, on the other hand, shot just eight threes in the win over Texas, making just two of those.
In the absence of a formidable three-point shooting offense, the Huskies might not be troubled on defense, particularly after containing Drew Timme and the Zags with remarkable ease in the previous game.
I’d expect to see a three-point shooting night closer to their game against Houston in the Sweet 16, where they went 11-for-25 for 44 percent. Those totals included guard Nijel Pack’s sensational performance shooting seven-for-10 from behind the arc to help the Hurricanes advance. Miami will need their guards to have an efficient shooting night from deep to draw the Huskies out from inside the paint and open up the lanes.
With the line set at 149.5, the expectation is both teams shooting around 75 points, and I’m comfortable with that. Miami has scored 85+ in each of their last three games at the tournament, while UConn just put up 82 against one of the best teams in the country. Therefore, in this NCAAB free picks and predictions article I’m taking the over.
Leg-2 SGP Pick: Over 149.5 points (-110)
Odds are subject to change*
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Related: Alex Buck reveals his Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State Same Game Parlay Picks (+250) in the 2023 March Madness Final Four, including the spread and over/under.