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Will the Nuggets be well-rested? Or rusty? Have the Heat used up all of their energy? Or will they be just as resilient as they were in Game 7 at Boston? Will Nikola Jokic continue to average a triple-double? Or will the lack of championship experience be the Nuggets’ undoing?

These are some of the questions we are pondering as we count down the hours to the start of the 2023 NBA Finals on Thursday night as Denver becomes the last of the former ABA franchises to play for a championship.

Denver has not played a game since May 22, which means they will have had 10 days off before taking the floor for Game 1 as heavy favorites. How heavy? We are seeing Denver at +380 to sweep and the Heat at +3500 to sweep, so the oddsmakers are treating this one as a done deal in Denver’s favor.

But should that be the case? Let’s not forget that Miami knocked off the No. 1-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the No. 2-seeded Boston Celtics, and the Heat is the team that has championship experience. This is more or less the same squad that reached the NBA finals in 2020, back when Taylor Swift had a steady boyfriend and tickets for her shows were not setting you back $4,000 on the secondary market.

Well, the aim here is to set everyone up for Swift’s next concert tour, and to win you enough dinero so that the males who are reading this can send her enough flowers to become the next Mr. Swift. In order to do that, we need to have an especially clear crystal ball when considering the possibilities of what is going to happen with the orange ball on Thursday night.

And as far as recent history goes with the Nuggets and championships, all we have to consider is this grainy image from 1976. And yes, that is footage of Larry Brown with a shaggy full head of hair.

 

Heat vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under – NBA Finals Betting Lines 6/1

Moneyline: Denver Nuggets (-400), Miami Heat (+295)
Spread: Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-110), Miami Heat +8.5 (+115)
Total: Over/Under 219.5 points

Best NBA Same-Game Parlay Picks Thursday for Heat vs Nuggets Game 1: 4-Leg Parlay Picks (+13000)

The last time the Nuggets played, coach Michael Malone shortened his rotation to seven players: His five starters plus reserves Jeff Green and Bruce Brown. Veterans DeAndre Jordan, Reggie Jackson, Thomas Bryant and Ish Smith never took their warmups off, and so we have to assume that Malone will do something similar in Game 1 trying to take the air out of Miami’s balloon immediately.

Starters Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray have been playing more golf than basketball over the past week-plus, so it is not like they are going to have sea legs the same way Miami’s players might.

As for Erik Spoelstra’s overachieving eighth seed, doubt them at your own peril. They were 7 ½-point dogs for Game 7 in Boston on Monday night and completely owned that game, which gives us reason to remind you that the oddsmakers set lines for one reason and one reason only: To try to get equal action on both sides of the ledger, thus increasing their vig. And let’s be honest: 8 ½ is a huge line. The Nuggets defeated the Lakers by 2, 11, 5 and 6 in their four-game sweep, covering twice. They have not been favored by this many points since April 25 when thy finished off the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round, winning by 3 as 10-point favorites.

Also, they haven’t had an over/under this low since way back on Feb. 13 when they played this very same opponent, the Miami Heat. The line that night was 217 ½ when Brown and Vladko Cancar were among their starters due to injuries to Murray and Gordon. The Heat got 10 points from rookie Jamaree Bouyea, who was on a 10-day contract.

Yes, that is ancient history as far as this series is concerned. Same goes for the Dec. 30 game between these teams when two-way player Orlando Robinson logged 18 minutes for Miami and scored 13 points. The NBA Finals is a season unto itself, whether it is a sweep or goes seven games.

So for this one, we start slow, see what the series brings, and ride only the hottest hands.

Caleb Martin

As noted in our Celtics-Heat Game 7 preview column, this is the Heat’s newest shining star, and he is burning bright. He had double-doubles of 26 points and 10 rebounds and 21 points and 15 rebounds in Games 6 and 7 against Boston, playing more than 40 minutes each game. He will be matched against Michael Porter Jr., which is a tad easier than defending Jayson Tatum. With the energy and confidence he is displaying, we expect lightning to strike for a third time.

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Caleb Martin to double-double (+230).

Bam Adebayo

The last time these two teams played, Adebayo had a mere two rebounds while defending Jokic, who had 12. We liked him for a double-double in Game 7 against Boston, but this time it is the opposite. We expect foul trouble and low numbers. He was at 6 rebounds or fewer 18 times during the regular season and playoffs.

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Adebayo under 6.5 rebounds (+265).

Jamal Murray

The Lakers couldn’t defend him and he attempted 22.3 shots per game while averaging 32.5 points per game, which has him the second choice among Nuggets in the finals MVP category. But we expect to see him checked by Butler as much as he is checked by Gabe Vincent, and that should bring his numbers down … except for his steals. He has had at least two in five straight games.

Leg-3 SGP Pick: Jamal Murray 2+ steals (+155).

Michael Porter Jr.

He had three double-doubles in four games against the Lakers, two against the Suns and two against the Timberwolves. The x-factor here is whether coach Malone uses Jeff Green to spell him more than usual, and Green typically has one monster playoff game every season (and he is due). Still, Porter is an underappreciated scorer and rebounder whose length is going to be tough for Miami to defend. If he crashes the boards, the double-double should happen. We caution that this is the riskiest pick on this parlay, yet we counsel throwing caution to the wind.

Leg-4 SGP Pick: Michael Porter Jr. to double-double (+260).

Odds subject to change*

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